wxduncan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 4k NAM has the 32 line extending all the way down to lookouts house at 1am Tuesday morning when the main band of precip swings through. Looks like it would be a major zr hit for western NC CAD regions all the way down to the northern upstate. This could be the perfect way to have a storm. Enjoy the snow and ice during the day Monday, while the rain makes it go away that night. The roads will still be a mess during the day Monday. Of course if the CAD holds on longer, or the precip stops sooner, there could be less rain to wash things away Monday night. If the models continue to increase on QPF and the CAD/Temps hold this could be a very nice storm for all of us fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 EPS report anyone? I'm curious if there were any significant changes. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Capstone event of our winter imo. Pretty lame one it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Capstone event of our winter imo. Pretty lame one it seems.[/quote Someone may end up with .75-1" zr with temps around 28-30..... That's pretty big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 EPS report anyone? I'm curious if there were any significant changes. Thanks. It's a little south on the means and the snow maps come a bit more south, but it's pretty similar to the 00z EPS run, IMHO. Nothing notable. The EPS control run shows a decent hit for portions of NC on the front-end. It takes us above freezing somewhere in between 00z and 06z on February 16th (hr 60-66), then shoots a lot of places into the mid-40s while precip continues to fall, which seems unlikely to happen, verbatim (maybe mid to upper 30s). It starts off NE GA and upstate SC as ice, but it warms up pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's entirely possible that I'm reading something wrong, but the 4K NAM was neither colder nor wetter, at least not for my area. In fact, it was a tiny bit warmer and a bit drier (though that's probably because of the slowdown). The RGEM is also initializing about 4 degrees too warm. That doesn't mean that it will be wrong - it just leads me to believe that perhaps there is a bit of a cold bias there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 18z rgem valid 1pm Monday afternoon. It looks much faster with significant precip into Georgia/Upstate. It is also doing what I have thought all along, in that there will not be a narrow line of convection that stalls to our west for several hours. Instead there should be more precip streaming from the gulf out ahead of the front. The rgem is showing just that, while the NAM GFS insist on very little precip out ahead of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It has been my experience when you have this two camp dichotomy and neither budge much, the end result often is about in the middle. Problem is the middle is too warm for most folks, have to go almost 100% NAM for a decent ice event and I doubt that is what ends up occurring. Agree Using a blend of the NAM and the EURO usually works well around here....cold rain incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's a little south on the means and the snow maps come a bit more south, but it's pretty similar to the 00z EPS run, IMHO. Nothing notable. The EPS control run shows a decent hit for portions of NC on the front-end. It takes us above freezing somewhere in between 00z and 06z on February 16th (hr 60-66), then shoots a lot of places into the mid-40s while precip continues to fall, which seems unlikely to happen, verbatim (maybe mid to upper 30s). Thanks for the report. Regardless of the low track, we have to throw the dice a bit and hope that overrunning initial moisture sets up south of VA to get something measurable. After the changeover, the moisture looks light and probably drizzley until the main low hits. I do wonder what our temps will be when the main moisture comes through. What are your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 4k NAM has the 32 line extending all the way down to lookouts house at 1am Tuesday morning when the main band of precip swings through. Looks like it would be a major zr hit for western NC CAD regions all the way down to the northern upstate. yep..It's funny how it has temps rising through 21z then they actually go back down again. Even though it's trying to recognize the cold air hanging on it still isn't there yet. It's frustrating though because just like all the rest, it has no temperature response after precip falls anywhere...it just holds temps steady despite the dry airmass and precip. It would be nice to finally see a model latch on and show an accurate representation so we can see what the actual temps will do during this event...instead of having to guess at it based on past history. It's funny though, Despite god knows how many times we have seen this play out it still leaves some doubt when you don't see the models showing what you think will happen. speaking of though, the 4km nam gets things going early with light precip as early as a little after midnight tomorrow night for many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The rgem is really keying in on lift associated with the southerly flow traveling over the top of the cold dome wedge. You can really see it on this link if you toggle between hours 40 to 48 and watch the precip break out and intensify over the wedge area's. If that turns out to be accurate, the upstate and NE Ga will be socked in all day Monday with a warning criteria event. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Edit to add: when you toggle pat 48 hours, it jumps to the 12z CMC output for the rest of the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Who are our 500mb experts? Are there major differences in the setup on the models that are effecting the track of the low? It seems that most folks are focusing on the CAD. Maybe the 5H setup isn't as important with this storm, but it usually drives what happens at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 yep..It's funny how it has temps rising through 21z then they actually go back down again. Even though it's trying to recognize the cold air hanging on it still isn't there yet. It's frustrating though because just like all the rest, it has no temperature response after precip falls anywhere...it just holds temps steady despite the dry airmass and precip. It would be nice to finally see a model latch on and show an accurate representation so we can see what the actual temps will do during this event...instead of having to guess at it based on past history. It's funny though, Despite god knows how many times we have seen this play out it still leaves some doubt when you don't see the models showing what you think will happen. speaking of though, the 4km nam gets things going early with light precip as early as a little after midnight tomorrow night for many areas. Yea, it really makes you want to pull your hair out trying to decide what it wants to do. Clearly, mostly rain for us is a real possibility, but I can't help to think back to last year's storm when no model, (hi-res NAM and rgem included), had me dropping below 32 degree's just 24 hours before the event started, when I wound up wetbulbing down to 27. I know there are other instances in the past where similar busts have occured. Rain or Ice, I am very interested in watching how this evolves, and won't be dissappointed if we wind up with mainly rain. (though I would like a little ice monday morning so that Clemson University will close down and I won't have to go to work, hehe). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I do wonder what our temps will be when the main moisture comes through. What are your thoughts? You got me. I'd have to think the Euro's 40s/50s are a fantasy... I'd lean more towards the low 30s the NAM is showing, probably just above freezing for the most part. But if the wedge doesn't erode as fast as expected, then that obviously changes everything. I think our best bet is the initial overrunning stuff, so like you said we need to hope that sets up over us rather than southern VA. I do like that a lot of the modeling seems to be shifting that south today (Euro, UKMET, among others), as we can score with that even if the storm cuts, blasts through the wedge, or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Video Update From Brad P: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 18z rgem valid 1pm Monday afternoon. It looks much faster with significant precip into Georgia/Upstate. It is also doing what I have thought all along, in that there will not be a narrow line of convection that stalls to our west for several hours. Instead there should be more precip streaming from the gulf out ahead of the front. The rgem is showing just that, while the NAM GFS insist on very little precip out ahead of the front. The rgem is really keying in on lift associated with the southerly flow traveling over the top of the cold dome wedge. You can really see it on this link if you toggle between hours 40 to 48 and watch the precip break out and intensify over the wedge area's. If that turns out to be accurate, the upstate and NE Ga will be socked in all day Monday with a warning criteria event. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html That's the regular Canadian. (GEM/CMC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Can someone answer this, GSP has upstate under WSW with up to 1" of snow/sleet and a Trace of ice. How in the world does that meet watch or warning criteria?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The 18z RGEM is crazy cold at the surface. Precip moves in with temperatures in the teens in N NC... 18F INT, 19F GSO, 22F CLT, 22F GSP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 That's the regular Canadian. (GEM/CMC) The first 48hrs are the 18z RGEM.. I know it's confusing, I should have explained in the first post. This link is the fastest source for rgem output though. Definitely bookmark worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Can someone answer this, GSP has upstate under WSW with up to 1" of snow/sleet and a Trace of ice. How in the world does that meet watch or warning criteria?? AS Brad P explains in his video, there is no formal criteria for a Winter Storm Watch. Also, a WWA is technically an upgrade over a Watch. EDIT: Isohume corrects this by saying a Watch just needs 50% confidence of a Warning-criteria event being achieved. EDIT: Verbatim, the RGEM has 2-5" of snow here with temperatures in the upper teens and low 20s before the changeover to ice. Probably fluffy snow, too, as mid-levels are initially really cold. Sign me up. I will hug it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 AS Brad P explains in his video, there is no formal criteria for a Winter Storm Watch. Also, a WWA is technically an upgrade over a Watch. There is formal criteria. Winter Storm Watch - Conditions are favorable for either heavy snow, heavy sleet, damaging ice accumulations, or a combination of these factors, to develop within the next 48 hours. For the GSP CWFA, heavy snow is defined as 3 inches accumulating across the foothills and piedmont and 4 inches across the NC mountains in a 12-hour period, or 4 inches across the foothills and piedmont and 5 inches across the NC mountains in a 24-hour period. Damaging ice accumulations typically result from freezing rain accumulating 1/4 inch or more on exposed surface. It has been locally determined that 1/2 inch of sleet is considered "heavy" for Watch and Warning purposes. http://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/winter/Product%20Description.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Don't forget that with the cold ground and road temperatures, anything that falls before the temperature goes above freezing will cause major issues on the roads. In my opinion, this will be high impact on Monday and all of the ingredients should go into calling for a warning. I hope folks take this seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 In the NW Piedmont, we are forecasted to hit a low tonight of 10-14 degrees. If it does hit those lows, will that make it stay below freezing longer for the Sunday night/Monday event ? And vice versa...if it does not make that low tonight, could that increase the bust potential of the temps not staying below freezing for longer during the event causing more rain as opposed to ZR? Sent from my VS990 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Well, you got to give it to the Canadian suite for stubbornness -- 18z RGEM actually colder than 12z run -- tries to get the wedge to Alabama! It's fully 6-7 degrees colder in I-85 corridor than the NAM. I'll tell you this, the Canadian models will attain God-like status if these runs verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Wow. You can see that on the line Burrel posted. Holds the ice intact until the system begins to pull out in the lee side. Well, you got to give it to the Canadian suite for stubbornness -- 18z RGEM actually colder than 12z run -- tries to get the wedge to Alabama! It's fully 6-7 degrees colder in I-85 corridor than the NAM. I'll tell you this, the Canadian models will attain God-like status if these runs verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 54hr panel is out for the rgem. It's a freezing rain crush job for the upstate into NC. It's dropping 3/4 inch of liquid in my backyard from 1 til 7pm Monday. My temp at 1pm is 29 and at 7pm I'm at 32, GSP is still in the 30/31 range though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The 18z RGEM is crazy cold at the surface. Precip moves in with temperatures in the teens in N NC... 18F INT, 19F GSO, 22F CLT, 22F GSP... Sure the hell is. It has temps down into the mid to upper 20s with wetbulbs in the low 20s across north ga, around 20 in the upstate, and mid teens in north carolina..all right before precip starts. Dewpoints at 12z are in the teens so there is potential for it to be even lower than shown if there is enough precip. We'll see if it's right but that is extraordinarily cold for a pre-precip airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Chris Justus, WYFF, just updated his forecast/thoughts on Facebook He's going to be live on Facebook at 5:45pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Hmmmm. 18z GFS stronger with wedge than 12z run -- help me out, but isn't a main difference here speed? Looks like the Canadian models get the big precip in sooner -- locking in the wedge, while the GFS, for example, doesn't get the bulk of precip into the CLT area until 9z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Well, you got to give it to the Canadian suite for stubbornness -- 18z RGEM actually colder than 12z run -- tries to get the wedge to Alabama! It's fully 6-7 degrees colder in I-85 corridor than the NAM. I'll tell you this, the Canadian models will attain God-like status if these runs verify. Yes they will That is one nasty ice storm if it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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