snowlover91 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I can certainly buy into the colder temps shown on the hi-res models....but for precip, I'm struggling to buy into good precip south of I-40 until the 2nd half of the storm. See it again now on the newly released CMC global which has the low west of the apps. Usually the high res models will pick up on banding and the heaviest area of precip much better than global models though. Once we get inside 48 hours I typically ignore the globals and use only the high res models. A blend of RGEM for precip and nam for warm noses works very well. Once we get in range of the HRRR and RAP tomorrow they'll be helpful too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 At 60 hours, CMC now actually warmer than 0z NAM for most areas of N.C. except small area in the Cleveland Co./Rutherford Co. region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The Canadian is in line with the NAM/GFS as far as the initial snowy thump for the I-40 corridor in the foothills and northern Piedmont. 2-5" of snow prior to the changeover to sleet on a line along and north from about Durham to Asheboro to Asheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 12z CMC had a low over ATL at 6z Tuesday -- 0z run has it over Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 12z CMC had a low over ATL at 6z Tuesday -- 0z run has it over Knoxville. In other words: All hail KING Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I see the 4km NAM once again trended colder... It now keeps me at 32 or below for the whole event. Also, it is really starting to expand the wedge southward into southern Georgia. Macon, GA may not reach 40 degree's on Monday. One more trend like this one and we're looking at a major ice storm for all of the upstate and northeast georgia. It even drops the Gainesville area back down to 31 degree's when the final band pivots through. Also, It holds the columbia area at 33 degree's all day monday and through monday night. it has been a while, so dont quote me on this, but this setup reminds me of dec 05...it was cold right before the storm, and as we got closer the temps got colder (the big difference i see right now is that this time for ne ga, anyway, the precip doesnt seem to be a heavy). that was a super cad lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Don't we just throw the cmc in with gfs, euro ,ukie into the global laundry basket as well as ensembles. Aside from maybe surface or 5h features and their placement are the big boys good for anything? Or do we go with strictly short range inside 24 or do we blend? I mean there's a line in the sand between these 2 camps now and I wouldn't be prone to weenie out I guess 8f not for the fact we are sitting under the coldest airmass of the year and it's fresh not stale with kickoff set in less than 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 In other words: All hail KING Euro. If this is the start of a trend towards the euro then these winter storm watches. Will be gone tomorrow this is the wrong direction if we want winter weather. I'm going to stick with the short range models not the global models and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 In other words: All hail KING Euro. Yes and no. This stuff is getting a bit old. The Euro had nearly all of the overrunning precip up in VA (though it's been shiftly subtlely south run by run), which the GGEM and especially the RGEM nailed pretty far out. The NAM, GFS, and even the 12z UKMET have shifted towards this, and this is where our best snow and sleet chances lie. The 00z UKMET is south and weaker of its 12z run (similar to GFS with tracking the LP through the NC Piedmont). Went from 1002 mb over Nashville to 1008 mb over Tuskegee, Alabama at hr 48. Waiting on precip maps to see how the overrunning does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Either the math doesn't add up or I expect to see a Flash Flood Watch soon. If the northern foothills are expected to only see 2-5" of snow and a tenth of an inch of ice then we need a Flash Flood Watch for the remaining precip. Frozen ground, melting, heavy rates, over half inch of rain, will cause serious flooding Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Been away for a while so the CMC has finally caved somewhat on the cold temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 FWIW, the 12z NMM and ARW were both very strong/cold with the wedge at the end of their run, (7am Monday). The ARW had heavy precip moving into Georgia already, while the NMM looked more like the GFS with it's precip band way back in Mississippi at 7am. The 00z runs are starting to come in now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Face Value per the Canadian in the foothills NW Piedmont: 3-5 inches of snow followed by sleet and .50 freezing rain. Not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Face Value per the Canadian in the foothills NW Piedmont: 3-5 inches of snow followed by sleet and .50 freezing rain. Not good Do you have maps you could post? I thought the Canadian caved and was about to call it a night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Yes and no. This stuff is getting a bit old. The Euro had nearly all of the overrunning precip up in VA (though it's been shiftly subtlely south run by run), which the GGEM and especially the RGEM nailed pretty far out. The NAM, GFS, and even the 12z UKMET have shifted towards this, and this is where our best snow and sleet chances lie. The 00z UKMET is south and weaker of its 12z run (similar to GFS with tracking the LP through the NC Piedmont). Went from 1002 mb over Nashville to 1008 mb over Tuskegee, Alabama at hr 48. Waiting on precip maps to see how the overrunning does. In other words, a confusing mess. Just give me 70 and Sunny. This system is nothing short of stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I didn't realize but many of us are in the excessive rainfall hatch for exceeding flash flood guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Do you have maps you could post? I thought the Canadian caved and was about to call it a night.. This should be all-snow based on 850s, at least (the WB clown is pretty stingy, though not perfect, obviously). There's more IP and ZR in addition, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This should be all-snow based on 850s, at least. There's more IP and ZR in addition, though. Well that brings back some hope for me(my heart sunk lol). If you get the ICE maps and have time would like to see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Face Value per the Canadian in the foothills NW Piedmont: 3-5 inches of snow followed by sleet and .50 freezing rain. Not good I thought I read it warmed up significantly from prior runs? This sounds good to me!!! Can someone post 2m temp map from 00z rgem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Dew point is -1 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 CMC got a taste of reality tonight after it received the recon data. Still a severe winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 CMC got a taste of reality tonight after it received the recon data. Still a severe winter storm. Don't think they flew over the wedge? That's the biggest bust potential, IMO . Whoever stays below freezing when the late afternoon , heavy batch comes through, will be in trouble! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 James said the ukie has come south from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 James said the ukie has come south from 12z I'm surprised the CMC got warmer after all them cold runs for days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 He's waiting on good maps for ukie but it goes through northern alabama through coastal plain NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 James said the ukie has come south from 12z 00z vs. 12z UKMET at hr 48/60: It ends up cutting over the NC Piedmont at 1004 mb by hr 60. It is still really warm, though I don't know how the UKMET does with CAD events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 00z vs. 12z UKMET at hr 48/60: It ends up cutting over the NC Piedmont at 1004 mb by hr 60. That is a HUGE shift south. Geeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Hate I have to flip on full version on this phone to quote. Anyway big frosty we are under 24 hrs now from start time, it'll go from watching short term models to nowcast radar/obs by the time altar calls are made tomorrow. Hope the overuNing can get in here quick and lock in. Some posters if not alot will be posting snow obs this time tommorow knock on wood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 That is a HUGE shift south. Geeze.High is still off the coast on both, but it is a 1040, so stronger than most models!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I won't be up to see how the EURO behaves with the new recon data...but after seeing what it did to the CMC...and where the GFS went...I think it will be sorta close to the GFS...and I would put all my apples with the future 0z EURO for the most likely outcome for now. Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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