Shawn Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Man, the Canadian is trying to come back to it's solution from days ago. Not a good look into the Midlands, just West of Columbia. That low tracking right South.. i no like for my yard and power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This has been my thinking the whole time! I've been saying that strong a CAD has no choice but to keep a weak LP on a southern track! That cold means Business and it also means a Sig ICESTORM for CAD areas! Exactly. We have the cmc/nam/ rgem(way stronger cad than any other model which says something because imo it's King inside 48) All saying strong cad. Gfs says eh naw lol toss that garbage gfs is a horrible cad model. This low is staying south. I expect models to slowly trend a tad bit stronger with the cad too if rgem has any kingship power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 If the Canadian verifies it will be the biggest upset since App State beat Michigan lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 CMC is ridiculous, there's a reason it's the worst scoring model. The lights would be turned off in the piedmont indefinitely down to GSP to NE GA, all frozen it looks like. Miller A track across souther gulf states. you know unless you can actually prove the cmc is wrong, these constant comments of yours are getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Also, the rgem is a good bit further south and faster with the precip than the canadian at 48hrs. I think that would imply an even better hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 As has been mentioned I do not buy the Euro/GFS solutions of a low tracking up the apps. The GFS doesn't do well with CAD events in my experience and the Euro also has a warm bias I believe. The models to watch and follow in this range for this setup are NAM/CMC/UK and RGEM. The high res models especially the RGEM will begin picking things up that the other models miss and as we get closer they'll nail down the location of the initial overrunning band. The UK will be out soon and if it is similar to CMC then I would say it has a good chance to be a significant ice storm for CAD regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's really not far off from the Gfs at 500. It just digs the wave a little farther south. It has the same setup and kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Also, the rgem is a good bit further south and faster with the precip than the canadian at 48hrs. I think that would imply an even better hit.Where is the ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Where is the ukie? Got 5-10 minutes yet until the timeframe we need for it comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GSP is ground zero for the ZR accumulation per 00z GGEM. 1.00 inch. This is using accurate p-type maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 ZR: (You guys get in on some fun sleet too in GSP) Shift the sleet South and the ice back to the central midlands and you have the solution from 4 days ago or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Got 5-10 minutes yet until the timeframe we need for it comes out.amped in North Alabama, lights out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Im off to bed now, the ukie moved North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 ZR: (You guys get in on some fun sleet too in GSP) Shift the sleet South and the ice back to the central midlands and you have the solution from 4 days ago or so. Is it possible for u to post the same timeframe and map from the 12z run to compare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 ZR: (You guys get in on some fun sleet too in GSP) Shift the sleet South and the ice back to the central midlands and you have the solution from 4 days ago or so. This would be devastating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Franklin since you been zeroing in on the kicker. Is it latter or quicker making its influence felt on the cmc compared to the gfs, thus the reason the end result of a futher south SLP track on the canadian? It's weather 101 we all need as far a south track as possible, so just trying to see if or what influence might be able to triger that result besides the it hits the wedge and naturally stays suppressed to go underneath it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Franklin since you been zeroing in on the kicker. Is it latter or quicker making its influence felt on the cmc compared to the gfs, thus the reason the end result of a futher south SLP track on the canadian? It's weather 101 we all need as far a south track as possible, so just trying to see if or what influence might be able to tiger that result besides the it hi t s the wedge and naturally stays suppressed to go underneath it. a faster stronger kicker is what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Is it possible for u to post the same timeframe and map from the 12z run to compare? Here ya go. As you can see the "heavier" ice has gone away from the Northern/CAD zones and shifted back down this way helping give sleet instead. 12z today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Im off to bed now, the ukie moved North. how far north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Here ya go. As you can see the "heavier" ice has gone away from the Northern/CAD zones and shifted back down this way helping give sleet instead. 12z today: Thanks! Definately some good trends there... Normally ou try to stay away from 1.5 zr. Anyway you can clearly see a southern trend too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Thanks! Definately some good trends there... Normally ou try to stay away from 1.5 zr. Anyway you can clearly see a southern trend too I am willing to take up to 0.25-0.30 of ZR if it helps everything North get more sleet instead of a devastating ice storm. But that's all. Sadly, if that kind of dramatic shift happened, I think we'd be in trouble with 0.50 + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 UKMET @72 Looks like the Low goes right up the spine of the mountains or just a tad east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Way too much emphasis on the CMC...I don't even view it as the worst case scenario anymore....I view it as the dead wrong solution after how many times it has screwed up over the years for WNC. I appreciate everyone's contributions none the less but discussing this model will let down and confuse most on what to expect. Rant over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I would take a GFS/UKMET blend atm. That's where the emphasis should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I would take a GFS/UKMET blend atm. That's where the emphasis should be. Nope not in Cad setups. GFS is one of the WORST in underestimating CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I would take a GFS/UKMET blend atm. That's where the emphasis should be. How? Gfs is horrible HORRIBLE with this kind of setup. Always has been. U.K. Is more reliable but still we have several short range models that are DESIGNED to sniff out the CAD strength saying "hey the cad is stronger." That's the only difference. Stronger cad=southern track. And we all know cold air likes to push a lp south and with the arctic air supply that we have it makes sense to lean toward a suppressed track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I don't think Global models can handle CAD as good as meso models.... JMO NAM and RGEM blend here on out..... Euro can't handle this kind of setup either. GFS/Euro will be late to the party with this unusually set up..... Gotta go with short range or die. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I don't think Global models can handle CAD as good as meso models.... JMO NAM and RGEM blend here on out..... I'm with you. Rgem is designed for this kind of intricacy. And it does extremely well with strengths of cad and the likes. It's weird but for this system we don't want a massive lp. We want it to stay weak and strung out. That would mean the CAD can hold its ground. Meso models ftw and euro has done poorly with last few storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'm with you. Rgem is designed for this kind of intricacy. And it does extremely well with strengths of cad and the likes. It's weird but for this system we don't want a massive lp. We want it to stay weak and strung out. That would mean the CAD can hold its ground. Meso models ftw and euro has done poorly with last few storms yes sir, might not work out, but I think it's the way to go blend the short range models dump globals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 How? Living in the heart of the CAD my whole life expertise...I would lean heavy on a GFS/UKMET blend but yes of course believe the freezing temps stick around a little longer than shown and a slightly colder by a hair. I'm against the CMC 100% with high confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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