NGA WINTER Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Where is lookout? I always love hearing wxsouth and lookout when it comes to wedges! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The Canadian still looks to show a front end warning criteria snow to ice even for the NW Piedmont and foothills, but it's definitely worse than the last run. I don't buy the low plowing through the heart of what should be a strong CAD event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I don't buy the low plowing through the heart of what should be a strong CAD event. Cad is gone. HP moves way offshore is what the models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Still 4 days away. I'm not cliff-diving, at least not yet. I want to see what the 12z Euro has to say. If it jumps on the warm/later/more amped boat, then I'd say unless something ridiculous happens, this isn't gonna work out for us. LIke Cold Rain said, that'd be a pity, but it the Euro may very well be our last chance for this storm. It was around this time when it started showing a further south solution with the January storm, so keep your eyes peeled. For those who can see it, how does the UKMET look? AmericanWx takes a while to load it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Video Update From Brad P: https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1023223221083467 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I'm not cliff diving. I just don't like the trends for this event. Maybe it'll come back. We've seen it before. But, the high scooting out quickly, along with a more amped system lessens the chance for a major event. Unless I see a reason that this system is going to come in more quickly than currently modeled, more south than currently modeled, weaker than currently modeled, and the high staying put longer than currently modeled, I have to think less impact. And that is fine with me. I have had enough ice for one winter. Haha that is true. You don't score until you score! Fair enough, and you're far more knowledgeable than I, but I'm still optimistic given how entrenched the cold air mass appears to become this weekend. Those wedges are often very hard to bust. Although I'm not sure anyone wants an inch of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 For those who can see it, how does the UKMET look? AmericanWx takes a while to load it. My guess would be front end snow to sleet to ZR to rain for the CAD regions (obviously, the better the further N you go), as in-situ CAD would take some time to erode, especially up in the NW NC Piedmont and such. No idea how much there would be before rain takes over. It is definitely a better run than yesterday's 12z run, but it's hard to compare it to last night's run with the 24-hr panels. At the hr 144 panel, it's up in central Quebec at 968 mb, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Still 4 days away. You guys need one of those CNN countdown tickers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Even with a dumpster fire run it STILL manages to be a light mixed event for many in NC on Monday before heavier rain later on. I will take any winter weather check please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Cad is gone. HP moves way offshore is what the models say. Not for NWNC piedmont and foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GEFS much further south than the OP. Low in central SC then near Sanford NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Ukmet is out in meteocenter and I think it's a big front end hit on Monday. Low is over New Orleans at 7am. Gfs has it in central Oklahoma at the same time. Also cad looks good Monday as well, much better than the gfs. I wish we had access to precip maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GEFS much further south than the OP. Low in central SC then near Sanford NCI wasn't jumping earlier, just pointing out how bad the run was. It was similar to the 12z Euro run from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On top of ridiculous....after the coldest air of the season...becomes entrapped near the surface....you add the 12z dumper run with light frozen precip accums on the ground...then you want me to believe it's going to rain/potentially flood still? Not happening. I expect Winter Storm Watches Saturday with a longer duration event than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Fair enough, and you're far more knowledgeable than I, but I'm still optimistic given how entrenched the cold air mass appears to become this weekend. Those wedges are often very hard to bust. Although I'm not sure anyone wants an inch of ZR. Nah man, your thought here is completely valid. Wedges are usually stronger and usually hang in longer IF precip falls quickly enough. After the high is gone, the precip needs to get in quickly and fall hard enough to lock in the wedge. Otherwise, the air will moderates and the chances for an inland runner increases. This *looks* like the direction we're headed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I wasn't jumping earlier, just pointing out how bad the run was. It was similar to the 12z Euro run from yesterday. Oh I know you weren't. It's easy to get caught up in run to run, I do it all the time. I just have to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Pattern, seasonal trends, and airmass in place prior to storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Ukmet is out in meteocenter and I think it's a big front end hit on Monday. Low is over New Orleans at 7am. Gfs has it in central Oklahoma at the same time. Also cad looks good Monday as well, much better than the gfs. I wish we had access to precip mapsthe ukmet is a lot faster and would imply a more easterly track. Compare the 96 and 120 panels to the Gfs and cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I thought the GEFS went the way of the op. Much worse than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Ukmet is out in meteocenter and I think it's a big front end hit on Monday. Low is over New Orleans at 7am. Gfs has it in central Oklahoma at the same time. Also cad looks good Monday as well, much better than the gfs. I wish we had access to precip maps The sooner we can get precip in, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GEFS is weaker with the low, but still comes over north GA. Here maybe a little bit of ice then rain. This does say the NC foothills/western Piedmont gets a decent ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 GEFS much further south than the OP. Low in central SC then near Sanford NC Figures. Yep...the models are still a mess. Oh and read my signature from isohume for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 My guess would be front end snow to sleet to ZR to rain for the CAD regions (obviously, the better the further N you go), as in-situ CAD would take some time to erode, especially up in the NW NC Piedmont and such. No idea how much there would be before rain takes over. It is definitely a better run than yesterday's 12z run, but it's hard to compare it to last night's run with the 24-hr panels. At the hr 144 panel, it's up in central Quebec at 968 mb, LOL. Thanks. LIke you said, sounds better, but still needs work to be anything good for our area. I'm glad to hear the GEFS is further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Figures. Yep...the models are still a mess. Oh and read my signature from isohume for more. I hope I can return my 5 loaves of bread and 3 gallons of milk ! This is just the models normal " losing" it 3-4 days out! Will come roaring back Friday night runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Unless this storm gets shoved into tuesday a.m. start time, you can start selling tickets for big frosty favorite musician. Cause vanilla ice is coming to the triad and will be putting on a blockbuster. These dp/ wetbulb are just to low to argue otherwise. Throw in the meso high possibilities and regardless of loosing hp in the ne it's gonna be a big mess assuming qpf is up near 1 inch. I just hope we can get a few hours snow on the frontend, now that may end up being a stretch, but warning criteria ice is pretty apparent to me as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On top of ridiculous....after the coldest air of the season...becomes entrapped near the surface....you add the 12z dumper run with light frozen precip accums on the ground...then you want me to believe it's going to rain/potentially flood still? Not happening. I expect Winter Storm Watches Saturday with a longer duration event than modeled. I hope I can return my 5 loaves of bread and 3 gallons of milk ! This is just the models normal " losing" it 3-4 days out! Will come roaring back Friday night runs! I agree with both of you things will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I hope I can return my 5 loaves of bread and 3 gallons of milk ! This is just the models normal " losing" it 3-4 days out! Will come roaring back Friday night runs! It's already roaring up your Fannie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Brad places emphasis on potentially heavy snow in the mountains with heavy cold rain elsewhere. At this time soundings are not supportive of snow during the main portion of the event outside of the high country. Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) 2/11/16, 12:15 Weather VLOG for Thursday 2/11/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Arpege destroys us.... Hmmm. Actually looks similar to the Ukmet just a little weaker with the surface low. This is the best run we have seen since the 12z euro for a couple days ago Even Columbia stays frozen for the whole event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I said it in banter, but I'll say it here. How many of you think a Low will actually plow direct into this in-situ wedge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I said it in banter, but I'll say it here. How many of you think a Low will actually plow direct into this in-situ wedge? Well, all the models have trended the low to drive into NC so I'm going to guess yes...either that or the wedge is scoured out by the time the low gets there and so it can go wherever lows usually want to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.