Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.

[franklin NCwx]

Yup, trends in the GFS have been dramatically west. We need 12z runs to halt the west trend.

the last 3 Gfs runs have been fairly consistent with a 95 runner. If anything the 6z has shifted slightly south and east.

[franklin NCwx]

The GGEM and RGEM have done much better for my area the last couple of years than the Euro.

yeah the Euro is not what it used to be, hopefully the para is better.

[UpstateSCBud]

Justus calling for an I-85 north storm again. No thanks, I'm out. I'd rather not sit staring at cold rain while places literally just a few miles north are racking up the snow.

[wxduncan]

Yeah. Going with Snow lIkely at a 70%. Weather Underground is going for 3-5" here on Monday. 

Same here 70% Chance Snow likely for Both Monday and Monday night. High 33 Low 30 just north of I-40 In Valdese(Burke) hope to be in a good spot with this one. But I do like those odds at 4 days out.

[griteater]

Was a disaster the Euro has been with this storm, massive run to run changes. This is why some of us have said the Euro is not what it used to be.

Of course the "Euro is king" crowd will be out again talking it up.

It has been a bit flippy........but that Para run is the problem scenario.  Super amped, closed off, negative tilt with 850mb low tracking across TN into SW VA, with sfc high moving out.  Euro Ens and Para Ens both trended a little warmer.  It will get quiet in here if that trend continues

[buckeyefan1]

So the 06z gfs says mby has temps around 29 and a dp of 3 just before the rain starts with no evaporational cooling noted in the temp profile. That has ice written all over it 

[wxduncan]

Not bad for 4 days out from WPC:

[BullCityWx]

As early as 18z Sunday, the GFS has the snow growth zone saturated for HKY. At this point, it's just a matter of time before its snowing:

 

At 96, it's almost there: 

[griteater]

The Euro Op run was light years better than the Para run.  Weaker 500mb wave and 850mb low not closed off

[griteater]

^ Stronger 5h wave and a closed off 850mb low would be great if this system was farther south....but it's too far north in this case, so it needs to be weaker

[BullCityWx]

Even some instability showing up here on the 700RH frame. That could help in aiding an earlier start. 

[franklin NCwx]

^ Stronger 5h wave and a closed off 850mb low would be great if this system was farther south....but it's too far north in this case, so it needs to be weaker

question is so we buy that solution? Too many big run to run changes on the Euro.

[griteater]

question is so we buy that solution? Too many big run to run changes on the Euro.

Yeah, don't know....they've kind of reversed course over the past few runs, regular vs. para

[mackerel_sky]

Good to have the Euro para on our side since it has great verification scores.

Nah, Euro bias of holding energy back too long /slower! We get precip here anytime before sunrise, it's game on!

[mackerel_sky]

So the 06z gfs says mby has temps around 29 and a dp of 3 just before the rain starts with no evaporational cooling noted in the temp profile. That has ice written all over it

That's the coldest rain you will ever see!

[buckeyefan1]

That's the coldest rain you will ever see!

True      It's been awhile since mby has had a good ice storm. I lucked out the last time with more sleet than ice    I'm still not holding my breath though, there's a long way to go before we know what will happen  

[packfan98]

Here's where the NAM ended up.  Looks very similar to the 6z gfs.  There's bound to be some overunning in the next frames.  One more DGEX run and then it's NAM time!!!

[burrel2]

12z Nam looks good to be me. It's holding on to the high better than the GFS. Also, it doesn't look like it's going to be very amped with our storm. It actually looks really flat with the trailing energy. That's a very good sign, IMO.  I was preparing myself for the NAM to show a sharpening 5h trough that would lead to a further north track, since it tends to be over-amped in the long range.

[Poimen]

So it appears to be two separate waves in play here. The first approaches from the Midwest on Monday bringing primarily frozen precip to most. Then the second wave behind it amplifies over the Deep South late Monday and Tuesday, which turns into the LP that eventually tracks up the Piedmont/Coastal plain. All in all it won't be too bad if the first wave can really put down some decent amounts before the stronger/warmer system approaches, I guess. That seems like the best for many of us at this time.

[packfan98]

Robert gives us a nice update on Facebook:

 

From Robert at WxSouth

I like how all the models overnight came around to my initial ideas of this next storm as being a "west to east " type of event, then wrapping up as it goes up the East Coast. This is going to be a fun system to forecast, but a nightmare on many levels where I cover so many geographic zones. I just did a huge breakdown at my site, on various zones, and covered how the models are trending and where it may ultimately go. There are several key points we know right now.
1) Cold , dry air is going to be entrenched in most of interior VA, NC, upper SC, northeast GA...and West of the Apps initial snowfall will cool the low levels in TN, KY 
2) The storm likely will NOT wrap up into negative tilt over eastern TN. This is huge, because European now swings toward the Canadian look, which has been consistent on a flatter wave. There's leeway and some tight interplay on how this will go, and we need time to see exactly where the weak low goes, where it tracks along East coast, but its looking more like not WEST of the Apps track.
3) The low level cold will remain put about the entire storm in RIC RDU, CLT to GSP zones in the Cold Air Damming regions of the East. This is normal, even whne the parent high is gone. The dewpoints are near Zero to start, so major wetbulbing will occur many areas, and a southern storm track in a region of height falls, not rises, is different and fits with this kind of storm. So even though changing from snow to "something else" will occur, rain is the least of the worries in the CAD zones all the way to northeast Georgia.
4) Serious Ice storm, on top of intial snowfall in part of VA, NC, SC ne GA
5) Turns back to snow in TN Valley. European 2m temps look too warm west of Apps in heart of the storm. But it handles east side 2m temps very well, as does Canadian. Canadian is an extreme Winter storm, thanks to very low temps and lots of moisture in northeast GA and the CAD zones.
6) GFS model is a blend of the other two, and has snow, to ice to snow interior, and is also a southern and then eastern tracking storm, up the Coast.
7) Lack of thunderstorms which usually robs part of GA, Carolinas on moisture. If this remains flat--big time Winter storm and lots of ICE.

All in all this will likely be a big deal. I will fine tune areas of that are mostly freezing rain (could be lower Upstate SC, northeast GA, or near RDU, Wake County to Richmond, bisecting RVA area. Sleet may be predominant somewhere inland but a mess in the piedmont and multiple transitions, depending on exact storm track.

So, depending on where you are in northern Arkansas, all of Tenn, extreme northern AL, Northerrn, NE GA and the Carolinas, much of Kentucky, All of West Virginia and most of Virginia except SE corner up through Maryland, this looks like a big ticket item.

[SN_Lover]

12z Nam looks good to be me. It's holding on to the high better than the GFS. Also, it doesn't look like it's going to be very amped with our storm. It actually looks really flat with the trailing energy. That's a very good sign, IMO.  I was preparing myself for the NAM to show a sharpening 5h trough that would lead to a further north track, since it tends to be over-amped in the long range.

I thought the same too. Can't wait for the GFS!

[franklin NCwx]

6z para Gfs was nice!

[TiltedStorm]

Cad is very impressive with this storm

[Brick Tamland]

Robert gives us a nice update on Facebook:

 

 

Number 3 makes it sound like he thinks it will stay below freezing for most of NC with this, and it's a matter of how much snow versus ice.

[packfan98]

6z para Gfs was nice!

I'm out to 117 on American and the low is near the FL panhandle after already a nice thump.  What did you see?

 

EDIT:  Nevermind, I got it!  Perfect track off the coast:

 

[mrdaddyman]

6z para Gfs was nice!

 

It was a fairly big shift SE with the LP system. Tracks right over the coast from just south of Wilmington to just east of the Outer Banks. We need about 2 more of those SE shifts and the Triangle will be in good shape.

[poptones]

It was a fairly big shift SE with the LP system. Tracks right over the coast from just south of Wilmington to just east of the Outer Banks. We need about 2 more of those SE shifts and the Triangle will be in good shape.

 

If we had nickels for every time we said that...seriously though, not impossible but doubt anyone should hold their breath on that one

[Brick Tamland]

It was a fairly big shift SE with the LP system. Tracks right over the coast from just south of Wilmington to just east of the Outer Banks. We need about 2 more of those SE shifts and the Triangle will be in good shape.

 

Maybe the start of the SE trend. We have four days to go, so it is possible.

[TiltedStorm]

I like this look for winter weather. Not for A Major ICE storm. 2m temps shows how strong the CAD areas really are.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GGEM&p=sfct&rh=2016021100&fh=126&r=ma&dpdt=

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GGEM&p=accfrzr&rh=2016021100&fh=132&r=ma&dpdt=

[Tony Sisk]

Robert has a followup post on Facebook:

 

To put that last post a little more clearly, what appears to be going on with the next storm (not this Friday small eastern NC, VA system) is that Sunday night and Monday storm will start in Arkansas, spread snow quickly over Kentucky, Tennessee, extreme northern Alabama, extreme northern Georgia, and into the Carolinas by early Monday and midday Monday.
At some point Monday, the Carolinas, from Raleigh, westward are going to be caked in, glazed over with ICE. The snow line w...ill pull through central Virginia, even Richmond to Danville and maybe Roanoke go to Ice at some point.
At that point, the snow may be coming to an end in Kentucky, and then Tennessee, but the next question is where will the storm go? Either up the East Coast, which means DC will be on the line for major snow (depending on exact track). And points west through Shenandoah down to western NC region, ending as snowfall....thats on top of what has already fallen as both ice and snow.
The worst place to be, no matter which model is right, is the piedmont of Virginia, North Carolina, upstate SC and far northeast Ga to near Gainesville, maybe northeast Atlanta burbs possibly, but they're on the edge of 33, 34 degrees. Worst of the worst when you combine all the heavy moisture is the piedmont C.A.D. (thats Cold Air Damming" zones, where the low level cold air remains put a the surface, below 32, the whole storm, like Roanoke, Greensboro , Charlotte, Hickory , Greenville Spartanburg)
Far eastern NC and southeast VA turns to rain, because low level cold air will get replaced with much warmer air at the surface.

This storm looks a little different in its orientation of moisture, spreading "west to east" rather than a north to south, type of storm. Either way, its a big one, but there's plenty of unknowns just yet, like exactly how much falls as snow in TN, KY, NC, VA And when or if the mixed or rain in TN turns back to snow maybe ending as snow in northern AL and northern GA if the storm remains flat. And who ends up with mostly freezing rain, in a very narrow zone of GA, SC, NC and south central VA where it won't be all sleet, and is too warm to "just rain". Hope this helps.
The Canadian Model Outline from Last night , which has been very consistent on the storm, highlights the "overall idea" of what I'm talking about here. There will be some tweaks I'm sure.
Further breakdown at my site.