franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Paste bomb! Wet sticky snow with some mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 May as well have been! Why won't this winter just end!I'll take a low running through central nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I'll take a low running through central nc. not me, I need a little more east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Paste bomb! Wet sticky snow with some mixing. Yea where TN/NC border?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 UKMET better, could still be too slow before high pulls too far out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Ukmet has caved. It's out to 96hrs and doesn't even have a surface low registering on the crummy maps. Northern stream wave is up in Minnesota. Not sure if it's gonna just shear out or what... UKMet with big adjustment...but looks a lot like 12z Euro...amped with sfc low running through NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Guessing that the Canadian will be another wintry run by the looks of it at hr96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I've just got a gut feeling the upstate is just gonna repeat the last storm in Jan. Ecept we may see a front end thump of couple inches of snow then its on to the ICE show for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Canadian with Wintry weather breaking out by 108. Shouldn't be a bad run.. 1035 HP in good place. looks icy/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I'll take a low running through central nc. Your about the only one it benefits, I'd rather see a coastal the inland tracker. Congrats after several days of upslope glad the rich get richer. I'd be rooting for this solution as well if I lived in sw nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Finally, the canadian takes the CAE/ATL area out of the ZR. Upstate/NC/NGA gonna get hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Big sleet/frz rain event on Canadian in typical CAD region. Central NC (west of RDU this run) to NE GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Finally, the canadian takes the CAE/ATL area out of the ZR. Upstate/NC/NGA gonna get hit hard. ZR slid north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The track of the Canadian doesnt look far off the GFS run from tonight... pretty close through GA/SC/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The track of the Canadian doesnt look far off the GFS run from tonight... pretty close through GA/SC/NC. GGEM was pretty close to right on temps last time, NAM was right on strength of warm nose correct? Wonder if significant ice is possible with that track and the GGEM just has a better handle on temps than GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The GFS is amping the lead wave and throwing it hard into the Great Lakes....the Euro Para and CMC are not, and therefore, the sfc high is much closer to the NE Coast when the GFS has it well off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 We've gotten a pretty good consensus tonight. Now the timing will write the final chapter along with a possible nw adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GGEM was pretty close to right on temps last time, NAM was right on strength of warm nose correct? Wonder if significant ice is possible with that track and the GGEM just has a better handle on temps than GFS does. The GFS is awful on any wedge scenario til inside 72-96, really most models are but the GFS tends to be the worst of the bunch but the Euro and GGEM can be pretty bad too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The GFS is amping the lead wave and throwing it hard into the Great Lakes....the Euro Para and CMC are not, and therefore, the sfc high is much closer to the NE Coast when the GFS has it well off the coast Would be safe to say gfs is the outlier and the Euro and CMC are the more likely solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 On the ice maps so far, AR has 1.50 - 1.75 ZR on the 00z GGEM through HR 108. ouch. will be out soon enough for us. edit: ouch, they reach 2.00 in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Man I wish superjames would get back in here. He's been Mia for a few days now I'm back! I was a bit "exhausted" after the last non-event and decided to take a 72-hour reprieve and let this one get into the D4-5 window when we can really get realistic about our chances. Surprisingly, I actually haven't looked at a model or viewed the forum since the Monday 12z runs (I can't believe I actually was able to handle that, LOL). I tried to make it to 12z tomorrow before caving, but I caved tonight! Anyways, good to see that a wintry solution is still on the table. When I checked out on Monday, the Euro had just hammered us with a big snow to sleet storm. Looks like a nicely tracking Miller A is not the most likely scenario at this time. I will say that with the HP sliding out we often see in-situ CAD hang on for much longer than modeled and I see some of the modeling is trying to take LPs directly over our area, which seems highly unlikely to me (maybe over the coastal plain or more likely out towards the Pamlico, IMHO). This storm reminded me a bit of the February 2014 storm on Monday. We'll see how things look now. We kick butt at sleet these days, so why not have another? It's kind of a shame to see the cold air and HP retreating as the storm comes in, but to be fair we've done really well with those setups in recent years (February 2014 and March 2014 come to mind). Anyways, the 00z GGEM looks like a mega snow to sleet and/or ZR storm for CAD-land. Lots of liquid equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The GGEM would be a major ice storm down to ATL at least, it has a massive wedge evident to 126 hours before it breaks. By then the area would probably dry slot and the event would be over anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The GFS is awful on any wedge scenario til inside 72-96, really most models are but the GFS tends to be the worst of the bunch but the Euro and GGEM can be pretty bad too GFS is not a good model till under 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Would be safe to say gfs is the outlier and the Euro and CMC are the more likely solutions? IMO, the problem scenario for ice storm lovers in CAD land is this going into a super amped up solution that wants to erode the damming as the high is sliding out - but still some ice issues in that scenario. The GFS is on the faster side at shoving the sfc high off the NE coast. I believe the CMC might have the best handle on this right now in the CAD region - that's kind of painful to type knowing it's the CMC, but that's what I'm thinking at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kennedy Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Hi All Was wondering where Burger has been lately? I am sorry if this belongs in banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Hi All Was wondering where Burger has been lately? I am sorry if this belongs in banter. He's somewhere in Europe...can't remember where....but I believe it's just a temporary assignment (not sure) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Hi All Was wondering where Burger has been lately? I am sorry if this belongs in banter. He moved to Amsterdam. I think he'll be on some when the bigger events pop up, but I bet he's still getting situated over there and moving in now. --- Hopefully, in the future we know this storm as PD III. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Anybody playing QB on the Euro tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Anybody playing QB on the Euro tonight? I'm around. I shall report back later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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