Feb 15-16 Possible Mixed Event.

[ozmaea]

I'm up let me know what it says

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[griteater]

Euro is substantially flatter with the wave.  Precip gets in quicker.  However, sfc high is sliding out quicker.  Not as much precip as 12z.  More of a moderate event instead of heavy.  End result is probably similar to 12z, though it's a better run in terms of moving away from the amped up solution.  Light amts of wintry precip in NE GA...more as you go NE into NC CAD regions.  Temps eventually warm above freezing all for except the NW piedmont and northern foothills.

[BIG FROSTY]

[5statewx]

A place in Northern Kentucky went from 12" of snow at 12z to less than 1" at 00z

[John1122]

2 inch line lines up west of I-85 increasing towards 6 inches in the Foothills. All in all a massive shift from 00z last night.

[burgertime]

Hey guys, I'm here in Amsterdam. Just moved over so been busy with that. Problem with the Euro and GFS tonight I see is both keep that low around the lakes longer. Hard to funnel real cold air in with that thing around, of course it could change. At least the GFS bombs out as it transfers to the coast. Not sure I'm feeling this one for anyone south of I-40 though. 

[superjames1992]

Euro is substantially flatter with the wave.  Precip gets in quicker.  However, sfc high is sliding out quicker.  Not as much precip as 12z.  More of a moderate event instead of heavy.  End result is probably similar to 12z, though it's a better run in terms of moving away from the amped up solution.  Light amts of wintry precip in NE GA...more as you go NE into NC CAD regions.  Temps eventually warm above freezing all for except the NW piedmont and northern foothills.

 

I wasn't sure I was looking at the same model there, looking at 500 mb.  So much flatter.

 

I think it's a good trend for us.  The flatter, the better to an extent.  Much better run here.  Starts out as snow then ice.  2ms are much colder than prior runs (which were mostly rain).

 

The Euro had a cutter to Ohio at 00z last night, so this thing is obviously still up in the air.

 

The GGEM and now the Euro (and I'd say probably the UKMET, as its setup is similar) are now showing a big snow/ice (mostly ice) storm for the CAD regions (depends on the model how deep the CAD pushes into SC/GA), and we're still 4-5 days out, so that's pretty impressive given how the models typically have trouble picking up on low-level cold this far out.

 

Maybe we'll end up with another big sleet storm here.  We may not be a snowtown, but in recent years we've definitely become a sleettown! 

[Dee85]

Thanks for the info superjames. I appreciate your breakdown of the upcoming winter storm according to what the models are showing.

[griteater]

Looking at the finer details on WxBell, the Euro keeps temps right at freezing or below for pretty much the entire event from Burlington to Charlotte to Greenville, SC, then up into the foothills....looks reasonable given this airmass + that type of flat wave overrunning setup as opposed to the amped up version 

 

Total precip is 0.7 - 0.8 from Burlington to Charlotte to Greenville.  1 inch across the NC foothills

[griteater]

From HPC (126 AM)...

TREND IN RECENT WINTER STORMS HAS BEEN FARTHERNORTHWEST RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST BUT ANTECEDENT COLD AIR -- RECORDCOLD -- SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME AFFECT IN LIMITING A FAR WESTERNTRACK WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS COLD AIR IS USUALLY SLOW TO EXIT-- SLOWER THAN WHAT THE MODELS PREDICT.

ICING THREAT REMAINS A STRONG POSSIBILITY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERECOLD AIR IS RELUCTANT TO BE SCOURED OUT AS WARM ADVECTION PRECIPIS PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST

[John1122]

EPS means show NE Ga, the far Northern Upstate and from about Charlotte to maybe Roxboro and points West with an average of 1.5 east shading up to 4-6+ as you work west into the Foothills and especially mountains. EPS control was very similar to the Euro OP.

[franklin NCwx]

Starting to get a good consensus on a track through the central/southern part of the gulf states then through the central Carolina's.

There was a storm that came through in Feb of 2008. Anyone remember that? We had a retreating high and stayed mostly snow here till the end, ATL even picked up a surprise few inches before they changed.

[MillerA]

Gsp disco

Long term /Monday through Wednesday/...

as of 405 am Thursday...guidance coming into better agreement

regarding the forecast of the storm system Monday and Tuesday.

But first...Sunday will be cold and dry as Arctic high pressure

settles in over the area. Highs will be near the normal lows for the

day with very cold wind chill values across the mountains in the

morning.

The guidance is trending toward a Miller a type system...but the

surface low is well inland with an I-20 to I-95 track. Moisture

spreads into the area late Sunday night and remains over the area

Monday and Monday night as the high moves east along the afore

mentioned track. With the very cold air in place at precipitation onset...

p-type should start out as snow. A warm nose develops as low level

warm advection takes place Monday as the low moves south of the

area. This will change the snow to rain south of I-85...and portions

of the SW NC mountains. That said...the surface temperatures could remain

near or below freezing north of I-85 and the warm nose could be

stronger and farther north. This would mean a transition to sleet

and freezing rain...changing mainly to rain south of I-85. Quantitative precipitation forecast could

be quite high creating the potential for significant accumulations

of a wintry mix before precipitation tapers off Tuesday as drier air

moves in behind the departing low pressure system. Will keep the severe weather potential statement

mention...but uncertainty remains and the forecast could change

significantly as the event approaches.

[packfan98]

6z GFS looked much better.  Colder as the storm approached and the low was slightly weaker.  I have noticed over the past 24 hours that the extent of the cold air has been pushed further south just before the storm approaches on many of the models.  Hopefully that could mean that it will be more difficult to scour out.

[mackerel_sky]

Anybody playing QB on the Euro tonight?

Looks like Cam QB'd the overnight PBP, cause it was a fail

[packfan98]

Big improvement with the 6z GEFS too.  Colder, weaker low pressure.  Upstate looks much better!

[lilj4425]

Looks like Cam QB'd the overnight PBP, cause it was a fail

Not so sure about that.

[franklin NCwx]

From HPC (126 AM)...

TREND IN RECENT WINTER STORMS HAS BEEN FARTHER
NORTHWEST RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST BUT ANTECEDENT COLD AIR -- RECORD
COLD -- SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME AFFECT IN LIMITING A FAR WESTERN
TRACK WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS COLD AIR IS USUALLY SLOW TO EXIT
-- SLOWER THAN WHAT THE MODELS PREDICT.

ICING THREAT REMAINS A STRONG POSSIBILITY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
COLD AIR IS RELUCTANT TO BE SCOURED OUT AS WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
IS PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST

overnight ensembles are making be believe this will trend slightly weaker. This is the hint the Euro ensembles gave us yesterday by washing out the storm signal in the means as we got closer.

Ukmet was a huge change from previous runs.

[oconeexman]

Looks like Cam QB'd the overnight PBP, cause it was a fail

I thought the overnight was good for upstate and ne ga. And I'd say another 48 hrs of model runs before things get ironed out. I'd say right now we are getting closer to a consensus on phasing or not and storm track. Don't expect the CAD depiction to be accurate for a couple more days and even then likely under done.

[BullCityWx]

Man, 6z GFS is a huge hit, especially across the foothills. CLT is probably a crippling ice storm. 

[FallsLake]

For all the RDU folks, we're still in the game. The 6z GFS would give us ~ 4" before any change over. "If" the cold air does take longer to scour out, as discussed above, a major storm is still not off the table.  

[burrel2]

There is still lots of crush jobs on the 6z GFS ensemble clown maps. 

[BullCityWx]

As a matter of fact, I'd say the 6z GFS is the best look we've had here since the storm first showed up. 850s never warm up above .6 in the foothills(3C for CLT) so I wouldnt buy anyone in the foothills or most of the piedmont changing over to plain rain. That isnt going to get the job done to scour the cold out. 

[BullCityWx]

Also, I could see this starting as early as Sunday Evening given the soundings get saturated quick. There's the dry air to fight off at the surface but I'd expect this thing to either be quicker or wetter than its currently presenting at the beginning of the event. 

[msuwx]

Parallel Euro wants to blast the low right into the foothills. We will see.

[PackGrad05]

I fully expect RDU (wake) to have a mess Monday morning before it changes to rain.

[franklin NCwx]

Parallel Euro wants to blast the low right into the foothills. We will see.

it's a lot slower too.

[RevDodd]

Am I correct that the main players in Monday/Tuesday's circus will be coming ashore tonight? If so, we should be coming t a better consensus tomorrow morning.

[BullCityWx]

GSP is really aggressive for Monday. Wow. 

[mackerel_sky]

Also, I could see this starting as early as Sunday Evening given the soundings get saturated quick. There's the dry air to fight off at the surface but I'd expect this thing to either be quicker or wetter than its currently presenting at the beginning of the event.

Yep! Jan storm came in about 6 hrs ahead of schedule