Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Model Mezzanine, the 2nd installment


Typhoon Tip

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I was living in Philly at the time. What would that mean if verified? I know it's days away. Just curious.

 

I was joking though. That analog gets brought up for every storm that goes south of SNE...lol. I don't know why. Anyways, it would mean inches of rain and 60mph winds for you. But, I don't see that analog so it gets tossed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was joking though. That analog gets brought up for every storm that goes south of SNE...lol. I don't know why. Anyways, it would mean inches of rain and 60mph winds for you. But, I don't see that analog so it gets tossed.

Yeah I was bringing it up cause of the EUR depiction of a slow moving low. As I stated in the post merely stated that it was slow moving like 92, and was was not calling in as an analog. That being said, I loved that storm as we had 2 days of flooding rain in coastal CT followed by 6 inches of snow at the tail end.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not saying we shouldn't debate and discuss what the models are showing in the Model thread.

But this is what you get when you follow a storm from 7-8 days out. There are going to be bad looking runs, and good ones. It's part of the game of watching from way out like this.

JB yesterday says he expects it to go up the Apps. And now the modeling has kind of gone in that direction Doesn't mean it's right at all, just another option. Need that High to get into a real good position due to the fact there is no -NAO, which means this could easily cut to our west like it's showing now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not to contradict my own winter enthusiasm as of late. 

 

But in all honesty ... while all this model consternation is going on cycle to cycle, the overall characteristic of the synoptic evolution since this last arctic outbreak modified out is frankly looking more and more spring like.  

 

Just the Euro's 00z is an example, and I've been seen this sort of scenario periodically over the last several days ... the model closes off what looks initially like it's a historic monster, but what happens?  It poofs it's self the next day and meanders up the coast as a filling nuisance.  If that doesn't remind you of a spring closed low than ur brain dead. 

 

Also, more and more warm thickness are creeping up in to the SW and along the Gulf.  Along with severe outbreaks down there.

 

Despite all that the overnight tele's are still humping a big time MJO Phase 7, and a pig correlation/constructive interference with the +PNA..   We can certainly get massive cold waves into March; the preceding paragraphs were in notwithstanding... It's why some of the very most special events in history are in spring - you can get these early season modalities toward warmth and then end up with exotic gradients to feast upon.   Or, if the cold doesn't come, ...crocuses.  

 

I think with this latter tele convergence in play, I'm betting the 00z Euro is off on its extinguishing gradients idea.  I also still sided heavily on an event in that time frame.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 I joke but You saw the scores, cmon anything past day 4 is just a 50% shot on any model. The pregame is fun but unless we see a Euro type lock for days and days within 50 miles, this will probably be a game time decision.

 

There is not much question there is going to be a storm system that comes up the coast in that period, But all the other caveats apply until we get inside at least day 5

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...