dryslot Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Has the ice ever really set this year? lol Big lakes not really, I would not venture out on them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Catastrophic ice for NNE. Like of the '98 variety? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 That precip shield is way over blown it seems...cmon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 SLP 988 mb over Western MD, Is that good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Tamarack would be a busy man on that run...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 congrats Buffalo and Rochester again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 That precip shield is way over blown it seems...cmon! Not when your source region comes from the Gulf of Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Until the euro and EPS shows anything remotely close to that.. It's safe to say GFS is tossed high and deep and far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 We all know the caveat with that model though. Well yeah...more accurate than a 168 hour GFS prog though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 GEM is pretty nice for Monday in SNE. The fact the Euro has wanted no part of that event leads me to believe it's bogus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Nothing really good about this run other then its at day 7 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The fact the Euro has wanted no part of that event leads me to believe it's bogus Ensembles have shown a sfc reflection on it. I would watch it...obviously no use in getitng too excited. It could pull a GFS only be for NNE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 CMC cuts also congrats Buffalo and Rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The fact the Euro has wanted no part of that event leads me to believe it's bogus Yeah, Until the Euro has it, I don't expect anything, Even the GFS has it buts its further north in NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Big signal. At this juncture, details don't matter. But yeah, what an ice storm verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Ensembles have shown a sfc reflection on it. I would watch it...obviously no use in getitng too excited. It could pull a GFS only be for NNE too. I've felt if it did happen it would likely be more north as has been the case all winter, those highs incoming from the Lakes and Plains always have been weaker and slower to arrive than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 CMC cuts also congrats Buffalo and Rochester Looked pretty strung out to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Looked pretty strung out to me just weaker still tracks 996 over western sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I'll go with a euro/euro para/eps combo and chuck the gfs. This in a nutshell....if this was reversed and the Euro was showing a rainy cutter and the GFS showed something nice.. I might have no interest at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 just weaker still tracks 996 over western sne Its garbage anyways but a bad signal so far at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Its garbage anyways but a bad signal so far at 12z Congrats on candles through Memorial Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Well yeah...more accurate than a 168 hour GFS prog though. I agree completely!! But, all winter long we've had periods that look very nice, but just can't deliver for the most part, so that is why the GFS is concerning to many...even if it is a week out. And that is because it's following the Tenor of the season thus far for the most part. If the Euro shows a cutter this afternoon, then the GFS is most likely on to something. If the Euro holds it's ground, that in my opinion would be very nice to see...even at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Hey Will.. Is it possible the Euro is picking up on that 2nd HP building in after initial one retreats.. And GFS isn't seeing it yet hence raining to Maine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Congrats on candles through Memorial Day. We don't need a 1998 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Lol just sits over Maine and occludes. Talk about long duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 At least we will get some backside snows......................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Hey Will.. Is it possible the Euro is picking up on that 2nd HP building in after initial one retreats.. And GFS isn't seeing it yet hence raining to Maine? I do not have a good reason why that wouldn't be possible at 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Not to contradict my own winter enthusiasm as of late. But in all honesty ... while all this model consternation is going on cycle to cycle, the overall characteristic of the synoptic evolution since this last arctic outbreak modified out is frankly looking more and more spring like. Just the Euro's 00z is an example, and I've been seen this sort of scenario periodically over the last several days ... the model closes off what looks initially like it's a historic monster, but what happens? It poofs it's self the next day and meanders up the coast as a filling nuisance. If that doesn't remind you of a spring closed low than ur brain dead. Also, more and more warm thickness are creeping up in to the SW and along the Gulf. Along with severe outbreaks down there. Despite all that the overnight tele's are still humping a big time MJO Phase 7, and a pig correlation/constructive interference with the +PNA.. We can certainly get massive cold waves into March; the preceding paragraphs were in notwithstanding... It's why some of the very most special events in history are in spring - you can get these early season modalities toward warmth and then end up with exotic gradients to feast upon. Or, if the cold doesn't come, ...crocuses. I think with this latter tele convergence in play, I'm betting the 00z Euro is off on its extinguishing gradients idea. I also still sided heavily on an event in that time frame. i think youre correct about an overall spring like trend, maybe we get lucky but outside of seasonally favored areas I would not bet the farm on it why is no one else being so frank?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 This is not going to be sorted out for another several days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 i think youre correct about an overall spring like trend, maybe we get lucky but outside of seasonally favored areas I would not bet the farm on it why is no one else being so frank?? I don't think you know what he is implying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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