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Model Mezzanine, the 2nd installment


Typhoon Tip

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Yep, I've been saying not to sleep on that one (radarman pointed that one out too yesterday). There's a bit of potential there.

 

Yeah, nice trends today.  It's better spaced (even on the GFS) so it doesn't catch up with the clipper and become some sort of IVT.  It seems to run at least portions of the OV, which is historically pretty good out here at least.  GGEM and Euro both have it popping out under LI, and euro even (barely) closes off 850 after having basically nothing before this run.  Still pretty bullish for advy type stuff with an elevation gradient.  Hope those mid-levels continue to improve.

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Euro ens had the signal for 50's this weekend in low spots and coasts like 10 days and 40's hills..They've been really, really good this winter

 

Let's just get thru the weekend, lay down a few inches Monday and get major snow/ice mid week

 

We see the one EURO run showing 1-1.5" of wet snow above 500ft has already evolved to "a few inches Monday."

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In all honesty, looks like IJD is -1C at 925 and -2C at 850mb and probably +1C at the surface.  That'd be flakes at least.  Its just light precip won't want to accumulate outside the hills verbatim on that look, IMO.

 

I don't live in IJD any more than Steve lives in downtown Plainfield. They are just trolling me, and it is well deserved.

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