Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 Ash Wednesday storm? trust me .. .mid weeks events are more rare and like I said, it's not a natural law to overcome, but statistics bare that out - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Seems a good old fashioned icestorm is a very real possibility for interior areas of SNE . Though it's fairly late in the winter with sun angle issues. I'm sure there's been a few that late, but can't imagine they're all that common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Seems a good old fashioned icestorm is a very real possibility for interior areas of SNE . Though it's fairly late in the winter with sun angle issues. I'm sure there's been a few that late, but can't imagine they're all that common. I remember a nasty one on Feb 28, 1995 and another on Mar 3-4 (?), 1991....then a pretty good one on Mar 2, 2007....though that was mostly a higher terrain event in ORH county and Monads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 isn't it harder to get an icestorm from a coastal storm though? the set up of drabble overrunning that accretes forever doesn't really occur in coastals, because vertical integration of the cyclone "tends" to be very warm vs cold sided. Obviously that is not always true... in 1929 (when I was 10 years old) there was a widespread crippling disaster ice-storm. places had 2 " accretion and more... it's a google-able event. It was born of a coastal storm. fascinating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 trust me .. .mid weeks events are more rare and like I said, it's not a natural law to overcome, but statistics bare that out - I recall back at Eastern on the radio shows, DT was always adamant about the immutable Weekend Rule . I never began to even understood what it was that was behind it. It doesnt seem logical that the laws of nature give one hoot about Saturday vs Wednesday. And yet, the statistics are undeniable.. Its a real head scratcher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 isn't it harder to get an icestorm from a coastal storm though? the set up of drabble overrunning that accretes forever doesn't really occur in coastals, because vertical integration of the cyclone "tends" to be very warm vs cold sided. Obviously that is not always true... in 1929 (when I was 10 years old) there was a widespread crippling disaster ice-storm. places had 2 " accretion and more... it's a google-able event. It was born of a coastal storm. fascinating The big 2008 ORH icestorm was a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 isn't it harder to get an icestorm from a coastal storm though? the set up of drabble overrunning that accretes forever doesn't really occur in coastals, because vertical integration of the cyclone "tends" to be very warm vs cold sided. Obviously that is not always true... in 1929 (when I was 10 years old) there was a widespread crippling disaster ice-storm. places had 2 " accretion and more... it's a google-able event. It was born of a coastal storm. fascinating I would say this type of modeled evolution would be the way to do it, with a warm front draped along the coast well ahead of the low center itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The big 2008 ORH icestorm was a coastal. Eventually low pressure went south of New England, but the damage was done from the warm frontal position/precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I recall back at Eastern on the radio shows, DT was always adamant about the immutable Weekend Rule . I never began to even understood what it was that was behind it. It doesnt seem logical that the laws of nature give one hoot about Saturday vs Wednesday. And yet, the statistics are undeniable.. Its a real head scratcher. And then Tuesday Jan 27th 2015 walked in our door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 I recall back at Eastern on the radio shows, DT was always adamant about the immutable Weekend Rule . I never began to even understood what it was that was behind it. It doesnt seem logical that the laws of nature give one hoot about Saturday vs Wednesday. And yet, the statistics are undeniable.. Its a real head scratcher. well i did offer a plausible part-n-parcel explanation. again ... there is literature out there about all precipitation events at all scales getting a boost toward week's end by pollution. industrial endeavors means aerosols and particulate counts are higher on thu-sun, then they are mid weeks; considering lag from the previous week. more efficient condensate means more latent heat release, which can have an impact on cyclone morphology and intensity when feeding that flux back into the system. i've read this before in theoretical tenths but i am unsure if that science was ever advanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 I would say this type of modeled evolution would be the way to do it, with a warm front draped along the coast well ahead of the low center itself. yeah, like 18 hours of icing then dynamic boom with wind - nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 The big 2008 ORH icestorm was a coastal. we're not saying it can't be done.... and no, the primary was not southeast of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Eventually low pressure went south of New England, but the damage was done from the warm frontal position/precip IIRC wasn't there a primary hanging back that drew in the mid level centers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 And then Mon Tues Feb 9th 10 2015 followed of course which was preceded by Monday Feb 6th 1978. There is no weekend rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Some sage words from BTV: LOOKING OUT TOWARDS NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGIONAGAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BUT ONCE AGAIN MODELS ARE DEPICTINGSOME SORT OF SYSTEM DEVELOPING TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ANDNORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT SEEMSEVERY WEEK GUIDANCE HAS A COASTAL OUT ON DAY 6- 7, SOME OF WHICHHAS PANNED OUT, MOST HAVE NOT. IN FACT, THE ENERGY ALOFT ASSOCIATEDWITH THIS SYSTEM DOESN`T EVEN COME ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST UNTILMONDAY, SO WE LIKELY WON`T HAVE AN IDEA OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THISUNTIL MAYBE LATE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 IIRC wasn't there a primary hanging back that drew in the mid level centers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I remember a nasty one on Feb 28, 1995 and another on Mar 3-4 (?), 1991....then a pretty good one on Mar 2, 2007....though that was mostly a higher terrain event in ORH county and Monads. Had a moderate ice storm in NNJ March 6-7, 1967, about 1/3" accretion atop 3" new snow. IIRC, Boston got 10-12" snow out of it. I think that's the latest in the season I've seen significant icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 December 2008 was really sloped, the primary low stayed well to our southwest, but the H8 low went over ALY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Some sage words from BTV: LOOKING OUT TOWARDS NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AGAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BUT ONCE AGAIN MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME SORT OF SYSTEM DEVELOPING TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT SEEMS EVERY WEEK GUIDANCE HAS A COASTAL OUT ON DAY 6- 7, SOME OF WHICH HAS PANNED OUT, MOST HAVE NOT. IN FACT, THE ENERGY ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOESN`T EVEN COME ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST UNTIL MONDAY, SO WE LIKELY WON`T HAVE AN IDEA OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS UNTIL MAYBE LATE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED. Sounds like they're ready to connect the tailpipe to the WFO ventilation system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Sounds like they're ready to connect the tailpipe to the WFO ventilation system. Well, at this point, nearly in March, its time to call a spade a spade. Not much has worked out because this winter has blown dead rats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I've been out of the loop, but I hope this isn't devolving into an ice deal. I know what that means in this neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Well, at this point, nearly in March, its time to call a spade a spade. Not much has worked out because this winter has blown dead rats. I mean I get it, but that's a little Cartman-esque "screw you guys, I'm going home" Whether they like it or not our job is to forecast the weather, good and bad, we can't just throw our hands up and say "we won't know anything until the system is sampled again on the West Coast." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Connor loves his winter sports though, so it's definitely the inner weenie coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I mean I get it, but that's a little Cartman-esque "screw you guys, I'm going home" Whether they like it or not our job is to forecast the weather, good and bad, we can't just throw our hands up and say "we won't know anything until the system is sampled again on the West Coast." I don't see the big deal with displaying some skepticism at extended leads out of deference to the seasonal tenor. I mean, this is the time of the year you do that......its been months, so we have an idea of what to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Awful BTV discussion. You'd think the office was run by Eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Well, at this point, nearly in March, its time to call a spade a spade. Not much has worked out because this winter has blown dead rats. Agreed. But....does past performance have any bearing on future events? I'd wager quite a bit, but not lockstep. Each of this winter's events has been surrounded by some other bizarre way to deny many in NE the goods. The curiosity is more in determining which type of poison we will be injected with next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I recall back at Eastern on the radio shows, DT was always adamant about the immutable Weekend Rule . I never began to even understood what it was that was behind it. It doesnt seem logical that the laws of nature give one hoot about Saturday vs Wednesday. And yet, the statistics are undeniable.. Its a real head scratcher. Ginxy already beat me to it. I was curious after Tip's post, and subsequently looked up the days of the week where the most extreme winter storm events struck NE. While most have occured on a weekend, some of the most intense have not. As Ginxy noted, the blizzards of 1978 and 2015 being most notable. Here are helpful links for this research: http://www.dayoftheweek.org/?m=January&d=27&y=2015&go=Go#axzz40SisZR3A https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Awful BTV discussion. You'd think the office was run by Eyewall. Sorry they didn't stroke your snow-shaft......but at 6 days out in a season which has found reason to fail at least excuse imaginable, I have no problem with that. They basically said "check back later"...what is the big deal? They didn't rule it out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Sarah McLaughlin is softly playing over the PA system at BTV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Agreed. But....does past performance have any bearing on future events? I'd wager quite a bit, but not lockstep. Each of this winter's events has been surrounded by some other bizarre way to deny many in NE the goods. The curiosity is more in determining which type of poison we will be injected with next Seasons absolutely develop tendencies, as patterns often repeat. Is it absolute, of course not....but I think it is ok to hedge in that direction all else being equal. Maybe its just me, but I like when a forecasters strays from the normal robotic nature of AFDs, and adds a little a subjective, human element. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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