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Feb 8th Monster Ocean storm obs and hallucinations


Bostonseminole

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HRRR seemed to indicate that C CT would get into some better stuff this afternoon after getting caught in some subsidence betweens bands for a bit. At work in New Haven...looks to be 1" at best. Roads don't look bad at all. Bus rollover on I-95 N in Madison however.

 

Looks like a reorganizing of that band in E MA...plus maybe something forming for the C CT crowd.

 

 

Feb8_1250pm_Radar.gif

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HRRR is a beast. I didn't wanna believe it when I saw it the first full run last night, but I had a sneaking suspicion it'd strike again. North of the pike just not gonna do that great, and ratios aren't great. The snow's dry, but the dry kind that sort of settles instead of stays fulled up. 

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It all goes hand-in-hand....oes is accentuated by the cf and slight topography, as well.

Whatever wish to call it, the hole is a result of the aggregate CJ phenomena imo......especially as large scale synoptic forcing abates..

 

Ok yeah if talking about it all as meso-scale then I agree with you.

 

Looking at some BTV 4km WRF maps you can see it to some degree.

 

At the 700mb level you can see the onshore flow causing frontogenesis to develop over SE Mass, likely related to a coastal front or some sort of land-sea speed convergence.  You can see how the isotherm bends there, indicating slightly warmer mid-level temps which is likely indicative of downward sinking air as you move west of that SE Mass lift.  (Also will be interesting to see if that Berkshire band develops more as the BTV 4 really likes the Fronto in that area)

 

 

A 850mb you can also see it on the low level omega.  Right along the SE Mass coast you have negative UVVs showing low level lift causing precipitation (and with the strong winds, that'll drift inland quite a bit)...but by the time you get back to PVD you are squarely in postive UVVS showing some sinking low level air.  That would easily be off-set by mid-level banding or lift, but when you couple the various levels together, the meso-scale features lead to a general decrease in precipitation rates over Rhode Island.

 

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Ya, think this is going to under perform in most places with regard to the forecasted snow accumulation amounts.

Friday's storm they under forecast...this one looks to be over forecasted. Maybe the next one they'll get right? And I realize it's been a challenging forecast, so I'm not busting their chops, just making a general statement is all.

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Snowing hard in Saco, coating is sticking to the road so far, matinance has starting plowing and speed is down to 45 54cb61cf269427976eb7877e7f850e3c.jpg

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk

Nice upside down pic there.... But you get the idea

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk

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You get the feeling that this is going to be one of those storms on the South Shore there may be an hour you doubt getting to 12, but by midnight we will single/double our way there.  Some hours will be more intense than others.

 

How are the professional mets on this board feeling about 12" somewhere in the Weymouth to Hingham to Marshfield/Duxbury belt?

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You get the feeling that this is going to be one of those storms on the South Shore there may be an hour you doubt getting to 12, but by midnight we will single/double our way there.  Some hours will be more intense than others.

 

How are the professional mets on this board feeling about 12" somewhere in the Weymouth to Hingham to Marshfield/Duxbury belt?

The HRRR certainly likes a little 12" zone there.

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