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February Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2


WinterWxLuvr
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I think the LWX discussion is pretty good.  

 

BOTH GFS AND EURO BEGIN TO CARVE A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF
COAST STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE DIGGING THE TROUGH
TUESDAY AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT HEADS EAST NORTHEAST BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE OPS IN THIS
DEVELOPMENT. AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND HEAD NORTHEAST TOWARDS US. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING WINTRY WEATHER BACK TO THE REGION. RIGHT NOW
COLD AIR APPEARS LACKING HOWEVER...SO ODDS OF A MAJOR WINTER STORM
ARE NOT HIGH.

 

Basically the models agree on the trough and that LP will form somewhere but without cold in place it's not a great bet that we get a winter storm.  Probably best to just keep it simple like this at this range.  

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I think clown maps are silly at this range but as many have said be glad there is a decent agreement on a signature for a storm next week. The details will flip/flop significantly between now and then.

by their very nature clowns are silly...their maps must also be silly...its the only way.  I am scared of clowns so I find the maps equally scary. 

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I wouldn't say least likely. I'd say odds are about even that we'll have a bomb snowstorm plain rainstorm or what you described. I'm pretty optimistic on this one.

The way I see it, the mean of the 2 best models, euro and para euro, would give us a great snowstorm. This is far from a lock, but I like the odds at this point. Of course, if everything changes then so would my opinion.
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I can't be optimistic right now on this, we do better with precip chasing cold (like CAD events) vs cold chasing precip. It is hard to imagine not getting any rain from this based on Guidance right now (assuming GFS/Euro type track and precip). Regardless of Ensembles or blends of the Op and Para runs... but it's certainly not impossible, heh 0z Euro Control has a snowstorm from Charlotte to Raleigh to Williamsburg to Ocean City.

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I can't be optimistic right now on this, we do better with precip chasing cold (like CAD events) vs cold chasing precip. It is hard to imagine not getting any rain from this based on Guidance right now (assuming GFS/Euro type track and precip). Regardless of Ensembles or blends of the Op and Para runs... but it's certainly not impossible, heh 0z Euro Control has a snowstorm from Charlotte to Raleigh to Williamsburg to Ocean City.

 

I agree.  Our recent memorable busts were all events without sufficient cold in place.  It makes me leery of being optimistic about setups like this.  Of course that's not to say it can't happen, but it doesn't inspire much confidence.  

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Oh, I'll agree to that. However, with what you have said, you are probably still ahead of my seasonal snow total with the huge  Jan storm. This forum covers a good chunk of real estate from the ocean up into the mountains, so yes each location is different and some will jackpot while others whiff. BUT, overall so far this Feb has been a win for most locations and one more hit in the month would just clinch Ian's prediction is all I was saying. This is still days away, could go out to sea, could produce another monster, could, as you said, just disappear. But having several models showing something at same time is a positive.

Oh, def. agree.  The window for the next two-three weeks looks good.  I hope we get a bit more lucky than we have.  We've missed a few recent chances just on bad timing.

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Clown map! 

Anyone notice something 'funny' about that map? Look at some of the numbers....

1.7 around Baltimore although in the 'pink' 6-8 range, Lynchburg posted as 0.4 although in the darker blue 3-5 range, Danville showing a 0.2 and in the lighter 1-2 range.....LOTS of transposed numbers there. Maybe that is why they call it a clown map.

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Anyone notice something 'funny' about that map? Look at some of the numbers....

1.7 around Baltimore although in the 'pink' 6-8 range, Lynchburg posted as 0.4 although in the darker blue 3-5 range, Danville showing a 0.2 and in the lighter 1-2 range.....LOTS of transposed numbers there. Maybe that is why they call it a clown map.

 

Just about to post this. Charlotte is also 3" but in the 1" contour.

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I agree.  Our recent memorable busts were all events without sufficient cold in place.  It makes me leery of being optimistic about setups like this.  Of course that's not to say it can't happen, but it doesn't inspire much confidence.  

 

The models are showing that the cold will be chasing the storm, but there's nothing to say that that can't change.  The setup is nice, but the timing needs some work.

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Anyone notice something 'funny' about that map? Look at some of the numbers....

1.7 around Baltimore although in the 'pink' 6-8 range, Lynchburg posted as 0.4 although in the darker blue 3-5 range, Danville showing a 0.2 and in the lighter 1-2 range.....LOTS of transposed numbers there. Maybe that is why they call it a clown map.

 

Yes, noticed the 1.7 figure being outta place.  Probably referring to a location along the very thin light blue area between the darker blue and the lavender. But the font size is just too big for that extremely thin light blue area.  It does make you question the number at first glance.

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The thing about the 6z para gfs is it shows 2 fairly strong coastal storms in quick succession. I'm not sure that's a likely outcome and don't see the run as offering anything more than confusion. It could be right but I doubt it. 

 

Location specific........as always, but since we've entered into a temperature regime more favorable for snow, the misses have been too far east (Ravens storm, last Tuesday or whenever it was), and the systems have been too tightly spaced.

 

I haven't looked at the 6z para, but from your description above, I could easily see it working out just that way.

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The thing about the 6z para gfs is it shows 2 fairly strong coastal storms in quick succession. I'm not sure that's a likely outcome and don't see the run as offering anything more than confusion. It could be right but I doubt it. 

Yeah, just looked at it.  You're right, that's bang bang.  1st one too warm for snow, 2nd too far east.  Goes without saying, too close together again.

 

I think that first one would have a shot.  Lot of high pressure to the north.

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The thing about the 6z para gfs is it shows 2 fairly strong coastal storms in quick succession. I'm not sure that's a likely outcome and don't see the run as offering anything more than confusion. It could be right but I doubt it. 

Idk if it's right, but we have been getting these vorts traveling in pairs of late for some strange reason.

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Long time lurker - A few key changes that I already see on the 12z gfs - 

 

1.) The key to the larger storm next week is to have the first storm amplify as much as possible to usher in the arctic high before the storm.  You can clearly see the differences between the initial cold front between the 6z and 12z gfs at 108 hrs and 114 hrs, respectively. 

 

The more our initial storm amplifies, the farther south and east the cold air can push and the farther south and east our potential storm will be. I'll let the rest of the run play out to see if this holds true. 

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Too many people making declarative statements about a really murky day 7 threat.  Yea if you only look at the op gfs and euro saying 81 and inland locations are favored is good.  The para gfs/euro/euro control are all misses to the east and have a snowy solution for the immedate coast.  Overall I would favor inland more due to the atlantic ridging and the lack of cold in front, but its not a lock and this could even slide to our east if it digs too much and starts out too far to the southeast.  Once it starts to amplify it will cut north pretty hard though, that much seems evident on all the guidance.  But they are all over with exact track, location of the high, how much cold we have to work with...the details are a mess.  I am hopeful on this storm, we have a shot.  I am VERY bullish on the period Feb 24-March 10 overall.  Someone said earlier March is murky, yea its still 13 days out, but where the ensembles leave us at day 15 is not a pattern that looks to be breaking down.  its a very stable pattern with blocking in all the right places and a trough solidly in the east.  Could it break down quickly after, sure, but I am not banking on it.  I think we have a 2 week window with multiple chances for something to pop.  I think we get one more decent event before the winters over. 

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Too many people making declarative statements about a really murky day 7 threat.  Yea if you only look at the op gfs and euro saying 81 and inland locations are favored is good.  The para gfs/euro/euro control are all misses to the east and have a snowy solution for the immedate coast.  Overall I would favor inland more due to the atlantic ridging and the lack of cold in front, but its not a lock and this could even slide to our east if it digs too much and starts out too far to the southeast.  Once it starts to amplify it will cut north pretty hard though, that much seems evident on all the guidance.  But they are all over with exact track, location of the high, how much cold we have to work with...the details are a mess.  I am hopeful on this storm, we have a shot.  I am VERY bullish on the period Feb 24-March 10 overall.  Someone said earlier March is murky, yea its still 13 days out, but where the ensembles leave us at day 15 is not a pattern that looks to be breaking down.  its a very stable pattern with blocking in all the right places and a trough solidly in the east.  Could it break down quickly after, sure, but I am not banking on it.  I think we have a 2 week window with multiple chances for something to pop.  I think we get one more decent event before the winters over. 

 

Name names.  I haven't seen anybody do that.  Perhaps I missed it.

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Too many people making declarative statements about a really murky day 7 threat.  Yea if you only look at the op gfs and euro saying 81 and inland locations are favored is good.  The para gfs/euro/euro control are all misses to the east and have a snowy solution for the immedate coast.  Overall I would favor inland more due to the atlantic ridging and the lack of cold in front, but its not a lock and this could even slide to our east if it digs too much and starts out too far to the southeast.  Once it starts to amplify it will cut north pretty hard though, that much seems evident on all the guidance.  But they are all over with exact track, location of the high, how much cold we have to work with...the details are a mess.  I am hopeful on this storm, we have a shot.  I am VERY bullish on the period Feb 24-March 10 overall.  Someone said earlier March is murky, yea its still 13 days out, but where the ensembles leave us at day 15 is not a pattern that looks to be breaking down.  its a very stable pattern with blocking in all the right places and a trough solidly in the east.  Could it break down quickly after, sure, but I am not banking on it.  I think we have a 2 week window with multiple chances for something to pop.  I think we get one more decent event before the winters over. 

What's more is that modeled pna ridge means business alone!

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