OceanStWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 BOS gets darn near a foot of snow on that run...they probably waste about 0.25" of QPF on rain or rain/snow mix, but then it goes nuclear for several hours The 06z did waste about a half inch at BOS before the flip. You can even see it on the simulated reflectivity products, where in the center of the precip shield flips first in the heavy omega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 That's a Ukie match. We pound, we snow, we take trees down Good job. #igotschooled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 hi,that's actually Gloucester wasn't talking about the map...i threw out my jack location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 well we are giving a private tour to a high end client flying into PVD at 1045 tomorrow so other than weenies there are some decisions that might hinge on NWS headlines Well what changes based on a WSW being issued now or at 4? It's going to snow, and accumulate either way. Seriously, I'm curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 BOS with a 3C sfc temp on the GFS while 900mb is -2C and 950mb is -1C and a 015 wind. Eventually the model will learn...hopefully within our lifetimes. Yeah, It's just too warm in that lowest level. Skews the snow graphics. That is a tree crusher in this SE MA., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 wow, what a turn around. Boston looks to get 8-10"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Well what changes based on a WSW being issued now or at 4? It's going to snow, and accumulate either way. Seriously, I'm curious. Some i guess need the reassurance, Most should already know what the answer will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Yeah, It's just too warm in that lowest level. Skews the snow graphics. That is a tree crusher in this SE MA., Bob, you think a solid 8-10 for the rt 44 area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 RGEM snow precip: The RGEM has increased QPF for the NYC area. Reflects a stronger trof and more SLP development earlier, throwing precip. back to the west. Moderate snows to NYC and heavy snows to BOS seem increasingly likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 People are going to be pretty surprised when there is 6-12 across eastern ma by tomorrow afternoon..... After the weather this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Let's keep amplifying this more right up until go-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 People are going to be pretty surprised when there is 6-12 across eastern ma by tomorrow afternoon..... After the weather this week I'm sure we will hear lots of "not going to stick since it's been 50+ this week". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Bob, you think a solid 8-10 for the rt 44 area? It's possible. 6"+ I put at 75% confidence right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Just based off of qpf, 12z GFS quite impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 That's a Ukie match. ?"We"? You guys pound, ?"we"? snow back east of me, ?"we"? and take trees down while I eat shist in a near-miss misery ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Blue Hills jack might be possible. Good combo of elevation and location. I approve of your assessment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Let's keep amplifying this more right up until go-time. That vortmax at the base keeps trending stronger...it's pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Climo dictates ... it is very hard to bring a v-max along the NAM's trajectory for this thing (looking back some 4 cycles or more...) without consequence in CT-RI-E MA and SE NH... That's the critical 1.5 deg lat/lon axis for frontogenetic banding - code for someone over-producing. The jet max riding on the NW side of the llv baroclinic axis means you're likely to generate a goodly stripe or two of -EPV...with a pretty smart vertically oriented UVM core(s). ANA phenomenon is really that playing out whether there is a closed circulation or not associated with said llv baro I also don't believe this is a pure ANA scenario, as there are clear cyclogenetic events going on with this thing. I'm also a bit leery of outright discounting the NAM along the popular vote to do so with that particular model. As I was discussing with ...someone on this board last evening, the NAM tends to do good when there is llv thickness packing/thermal gradients that are high. It may be coincidence that whatever convective parameterization the NAM uses ...happens to perform well in those scenarios, but whenever there is a strong difluence moving over top that kind of thickness gradient, the NAM's tiltng the elevated frontal slopes more vertical...maximizing lift, together with convective processes adds to elevated instability... all of which feeds back dynamically and the storm mechanically resolves NW guidance consensus. That's ...about precisely what happened in Dec 2005 ...though this is no analog per se, the baser idea of strong DPVA and difluence running up on the NW (cold side) of nascent polar frontal displacement hearkens to potential. We'll see how it plays out, but I wouldn't be shocked if warning level event stripes SE NE... IF IF IF, the NAM is correct with that vorticity max both timing and placement throughout. This is precisely what came to mind after reading the first few lines of your post. Uncanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'm currently going 3-6" for BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'll chuck another caution flag out there too, mainly for NW fringe QPF queens. This is something Ekster likes to peek at in these marginal cases, the saturation of forecast soundings. Normally you like to see the temp/dewpoint traces smack on top of each other. In this case, the farther NW you go the more there is sign of sub-saturation. Might make moderate snow tough to achieve for some in those zones. Starts to show up on the NAM on a ORE-BDL axis...you can see it struggling to get totally full saturation. Where does this zone begin this this area...ne MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I'm currently going 3-6" for BOS Sounds reasonable. I still feel like this will kick back a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 BOS with a 3C sfc temp on the GFS while 900mb is -2C and 950mb is -1C and a 015 wind. Eventually the model will learn...hopefully within our lifetimes. The flip won't take long. It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Good job. #igotschooled He guessed. Nothing supported this at that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I think the hilly parts of northeastern CT and Worcester hills are in a better spot than Boston and Providence points south and east. More qpf as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Sounds reasonable. I still feel like this will kick back a bit. Agree. Yes the ground will be warm at the beginning too. That will hurt the initial snow accum. However, we will have rates that will quickly whiten things up. Looking forward to a nice paste job for the first time in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 He guessed. Nothing supported this at that time frame. I think 2-4" is a good bet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Sounds reasonable. I still feel like this will kick back a bit. NAM soundings look fine for BOS through PSM and PWM as far as saturation goes, but it's when you head west it gets a little more iffy. It's worse for ORH to MHT, and even worse still as you get near GYX where the sounding is as much as 2oC below saturation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 If I was forecasting Wilmington right now and had gun to head I'd say 2-4" Ray. I'm trying to get more reasonable with age lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I think 2-4" is a good bet here. LOL beat me to it by about one minute. I literally just posted 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 NAM soundings look fine for BOS through PSM and PWM as far as saturation goes, but it's when you head west it gets a little more iffy. It's worse for ORH to MHT, and even worse still as you get near GYX where the sounding is as much as 2oC below saturation. KBED is fine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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