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JoshM

February 2016 Banter

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From News 2 Grant Gilmore. 15 minutes ago

MONDAY-TUESDAY STORM UPDATE: There remains a great deal of uncertainty in terms of the exact details, but there is at least enough confidence to start talking timeline and general impacts.

SETUP: Arctic air will move in over the weekend and remain in place through Monday. A relatively weak system will swing in from the northwest Sunday night through Monday. Meanwhile, on Monday an area of low pressure will develop over the western Gulf States and begin to track to east and then northeast from Monday into Tuesday.

CURRENT THINKING: The arrival of the first and weaker system through the day on Monday looks to bring scattered snow showers to the Triad. It is difficult to really pin down forecast totals at this point, but I will say we have roughly a 50% chance of seeing between 0.5"-1" of snow. As the area of low pressure moves northeast out of the Gulf States it will bring with it more moisture, but it will also bring warmth up from the south. This injection of warmth (in the mid-levels of the atmosphere first) will cause the precipitation in the Triad to change from snow to either sleet or freezing rain. Currently it looks like there will be a greater threat for freezing rain, but sleet cannot be completely ruled out. With such a strong surge of warmth ahead of the approaching storm I currently don't expect the threat of freezing rain/sleet to last that long resulting in minimal icing (this can definitely change). Temperatures Tuesday will quickly warm and result in the precipitation through the rest of Tuesday being just rain. Between the transition to sleet/freezing rain Monday night and Tuesday morning and then just rain on Tuesday any snow accumulation from Monday would quickly melt.

IMPACTS: Currently, the snow showers Monday could result in some minor travel issues with some roads potentially becoming a little icy or slushy. Near freezing temperatures overnight Monday into Tuesday will maintain a concern for slick spots into Tuesday morning, but as temperatures warm into the 40s Tuesday afternoon icy roads will no longer be a concern. Freezing rain (icing) is not a huge concern right now, but the potential for some minor icing does exist. Any remaining water on the roads Tuesday night could refreeze as temperatures drop back into the low 30s producing some black ice Wednesday morning.

IN SHORT: Monday will definitely produce some type of winter weather in the Triad and requires a close watch. There will be some impacts and caution will need to be taken if out driving. The details of this storm are still coming together and things WILL change. Keep checking back for the latest update.

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Nash county trolls us hard by canceling school tomorrow

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And on our make up day, I guarantee it will be a perfect day for golf. Tomorrow I will wish I was at school instead of doing the list my wife is preparing even as I type this.

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I know we are done south of Atlanta. I'll keep an I on severe weather season until May. La Nina next year? I hope it's a weak one.

La Niña can produce snow in the southeast, it generally requires blocking more so while El Niños can produce without it because in general the southern branch is more active. I would watch for an active southern branch next winter due to possible lag effect from the strength or this El Niño

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La Niña can produce snow in the southeast, it generally requires blocking more so while El Niños can produce without it because in general the southern branch is more active. I would watch for an active southern branch next winter due to possible lag effect from the strength or this El Niño

I agree, I'm leaning towards a neutral enso.

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It seems nearly impossible to have a good winter here anymore. No matter how good things supposedly look heading into winter, it seems there is always something these days to throw a wrench in things. Not sure if the climate is changing or things just don't work like they did in the past, but I think long range outlooks are really useless here. Just too many things can happen, and I don't think anyone can really know which way things can go here for winter. Mets don't even know of 12 hours out sometimes what is going to happen with a winter storm threat, and we sure as heck can't depend on the models most of the time to get it right.

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Lol. He called for a hot dry summer and a warm crappy winter. Pretty spot on.

 

Yeah....Nope. My ground  has been wet since July. It's been cold enough for two snow events. Definitely not "spot on". Maybe there were periods of similarity, but overall not that close.

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It seems nearly impossible to have a good winter here anymore. No matter how good things supposedly look heading into winter, it seems there is always something these days to throw a wrench in things. Not sure if the climate is changing or things just don't work like they did in the past, but I think long range outlooks are really useless here. Just too many things can happen, and I don't think anyone can really know which way things can go here for winter. Mets don't even know of 12 hours out sometimes what is going to happen with a winter storm threat, and we sure as heck can't depend on the models most of the time to get it right.

RDU was above climo in snowfall the last two winters. Perhaps expectations are just too high.

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Lol. He called for a hot dry summer and a warm crappy winter. Pretty spot on.

 

The fact that I have now seen snow falling on 4 separate occasions in the last 2 weeks makes that forecast invalid.

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Well it's official, were having a BOY!!! Guna have me a little partner in crime lol.

 

You will need help on that Christmas Tree Farm !

 

A hearty congratulations to you brother !

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Well it's official, were having a BOY!!! Guna have me a little partner in crime lol.

Congrats!!  :D 

 

Can someone remind why everyone was happy to see wolpfackbacker?

NCrain just says exactly what the models are showing. He doesn't cherry pick cold/snowy/wintry frames to make weenies happy like some do around here. He just tells it like it is and wrongly catches total crap from it. So does everyone around here that brings a taste of reality to the threads. What people want to hear and what people need to hear are usually two totally different things  ;)

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Congrats!!   :D

 

NCrain just says exactly what the models are showing. He doesn't cherry pick cold/snowy/wintry frames to make weenies happy like some do around here. He just tells it like it is and wrongly catches total crap from it. So does everyone around here that brings a taste of reality to the threads. What people want to hear and what people need to hear are usually two totally different things   ;)

 

He says what the warmest least desirable model is showing.. did he comment on the CMC, UKMET, GFS? No. And his tone is very condescending to others.. 

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Well it's official, were having a BOY!!! Guna have me a little partner in crime lol.

 

Congrats.  Be sure and keep him away from the edge of the escarpment.

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Here's my latest updated forecast..... From RNK

 

 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE
OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NOT AS COOL. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN
THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW
AND RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION.
NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR
100 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN LIKELY. NOT AS COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 

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