UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Haha yes I forgot, Ulster. Not like it matters anyway, jk Oh trust me....This season it has def mattered... Atleast Orange County has seen more than 3" lol... I wish these models wouldn't tease so far out, so I can actually get some sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Watch this storm trend east this time around lol Don't be surprised if this jumps around every run. It simply closed off in a better spot which slowed down the flow. It could completely cut off (Although Unlikely) and bury the mid-atlantic or end up hundreds of miles offshore next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Don't be surprised if this jumps around every run. It simply closed off in a better spot which slowed down the flow. It could completely cut off (Although Unlikely) and bury the mid-atlantic or end up hundreds of miles offshore next run. Models blow at seeing that wedge in the SE, the CMC has a tendency for some reason to be good at seeing it at this range and oddly enough it's fairly suppressed relatively to what you'd expect the CMC to normally do on a system like this. The setup down there could ultimately dictate the early life of the system and if it more or less has its growth stunted because that high is stubborn to give in the system may end up weaker and strung out up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The EPS continues the extreme volatility theme this winter for the rest of February. Record Arctic shot potential this weekend followed by a warm up and then a cool down the last week of February. Rapid 500 mb changes have been the prime feature this winter. How warm you thinking? EPS showed 3-5F AN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Anyone think the low off coast around Saturday tone frame will shift west? The nam had shifted west this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Cold today even before main arctic outbreak...temps hanging in mid 20's with nw winds gusting to 30 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Anyone think the low off coast around Saturday tone frame will shift west? The nam had shifted west this morning. No. PV confluence is too strong and trough is poorly aligned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 No. PV confluence is too strong and trough is poorly aligned. Shame. Could have been a high ratio storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Shame. Could have been a high ratio storm. Just not getting the breaks since the Blizzard. But at least we have that one storm by which to remember this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 No. PV confluence is too strong and trough is poorly aligned. Very close call with that storm, gfs just shifted west looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 After this cold shot winter will be on life support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12/3 out there... This weekend is gonna be brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 After this cold shot winter will be on life support The GFS sort of has that idea but the EPS sure doesn't and overall this winter the EPS has been way better when it comes to the Day 11-15 pattern and temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 After this cold shot winter will be on life support Almost every winter forecast called for a loaded back half of winter. It may snow into april Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Down to 19 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Almost every winter forecast called for a loaded back half of winter. It may snow into april Met winter or calendar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Almost every winter forecast called for a loaded back half of winter. It may snow into april That's very unusual though, the window for most of this forum closes quickly after about March 22nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 16.6℉ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 After this cold shot winter will be on life support Nope. Weeklies have a good pattern starting week 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Nope. Weeklies have a good pattern starting week 2. Bro, in two weeks it's March. Let's at least be reasonable here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Bro, in two weeks it's March. Let's at least be reasonable here. Winter is still capable of delivering till mid March at least. Beyond that it becomes very difficult to improbable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html deepening ridge out west and a slower and diving through might make this a bit interesting along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Winter is still capable of delivering till mid March at least. Beyond that it becomes very difficult to improbable. some of our most intense storms occur in march.a much more dynamic collision of air masses can make for memorable nor'easters and blizzards around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 the ukie has us snowing at a gd clip with a developing coastal right along the coast,very high ratio snow too.i'd say the west trend is on big time. ..NWS still saying eastern zones may have 'period of light snow with accum. of a dusting to a couple of inches'...i good us a freshening up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Bro, in two weeks it's March. Let's at least be reasonable here. I guess you forgot what happened last March. The analogs suggest a cold and stormy March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Michael Ventrice One of the most impressive Rossby wave train forecasts I've ever seen out of the ECMWF Weeklies. AMP the pattern up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I guess you forgot what happened last March. The analogs suggest a cold and stormy March. 18.6 inches of snow last March in Central Park, and that's the areas warm spot. Very short memories here. March is often an awesome month for snow especially N & W of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12Z NAM (still out of its most accurate range) shows the cold arctic air hanging tough which results in a significant front end snow in the metro - this is all beginning to make a lot of sense because a near record plunge of arctic HP is not going to just escape rapidly its going to leave behind cold enough air when the precip arrives overrunning it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 the winter of 1891-92 got off to a slow start...It finally snowed in January but not so much in February...March 1892 had a blizzard on the 18th... 1892 from the NY Tribune... http://chroniclingam...-19/ed-1/seq-5/ http://bklyn.newspap.../image/50461371 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I guess you forgot what happened last March. The analogs suggest a cold and stormy March. What are you talking about? Once we got past the March 5th snowstorm, we flipped to a much warmer, and more spring like pattern. Sure we got some snow on the 20th, but around here we barely got anything notable. I expected much more with such a cold pattern we had last year. By Feb 2010, a lot of people (not just here) were talking about how March would be cold and snowy, as based on the models, with the weeklies showing no end to winter in sight. Come March we practically flipped to spring. It's February now (and in a much warmer year than 2015, if I might add), and already half the month has been filled with busts or snowstorms that turn to rain after a few hours (the 16th storm doesn't look very promising at all). I don't think March will hold much, if any, snow for us, aside from a freak snowstorm. Though I suppose early March could have some potential especially if we get a nor'easter type storm, with us on the frozen side, so that's something I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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