Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Rain moving in. KPHL radar has been down for 3 days. GFS still has heavier rain this afternoon than the NAM had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Rain moving in. KPHL radar has been down for 3 days. GFS still has heavier rain this afternoon than the NAM had As soon as you say that, it's back up. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Moderate to occasional heavy rain all day here in Hunterdon County, plentiful fog. Snowpack being absolutely annihilated. Storm totals seem certain to bust well high of the forecast of around 0.70 in especially with this next slug of rain coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Moderate to occasional heavy rain all day here in Hunterdon County, plentiful fog. Snowpack being absolutely annihilated. Storm totals seem certain to bust well high of the forecast of around 0.70 in especially with this next slug of rain coming through. Not surprised about the snowpack. Fog and warm rain are like kryptonite to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I can't believe there's no advisory. Haven't seen fog this bad in a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Heh...not a drop of fog here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Daily Records through 4 PM: Bridgeport: 54° (Tied record set in 2006) Westhampton: 54° (Broke record of 53° set in 2006) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Heh...not a drop of fog here. Absolutely none in the city. Even the bigger piles I made on campus are gone. I think if we had today's event 2 days after the blizzard we still would have lost most of the snow pack and seen major flooding. This airmass is a snow destroyer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Poughkeepsie set a record high of 62° this evening. That broke the old record of 60°, which was set in 1991. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 CFSv2 Weeklies show just one window of opportunity, the 7 day period centered around the 13th. Otherwise the 3 other weekly periods are all at least +4. Since a SSWEvent seems to be underway and in a favorably part of the stratosphere for us, does anyone know if this particular long range product is already aware of this SSWE and has considered it, but still produces this crummy result? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/ Well at any rate the next 7 days are about +5 to +6. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA This should put us @+8 or so, by the morning of the 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 CFSv2 Weeklies show just one window of opportunity, the 7 day period centered around the 13th. Otherwise the 3 other weekly periods are all at least +4. Since a SSWEvent seems to be underway and in a favorably part of the stratosphere for us, does anyone know if this particular long range product is already aware of this SSWE and has considered it, but still produces this crummy result? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/ Well at any rate the next 7 days are about +5 to +6. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA This should put us @+8 or so, by the morning of the 11th. It's generally forecast to unfold at 10 mb and above. There's still no guidance suggesting that it will propagate downward, but it's still a little soon to be sure about that aspect. Moreover, propagation would take some time to unfold, so the impact on blocking wouldn't be immediate (it might develop toward the end of February or early March if the typical timeframe is involved.). Wave 2 is forecast to break in the highest levels of the stratosphere and that may be the reason most of the warming is forecast to occur where it is. The CFSv2 is an atmosphere-ocean-ice coupled model. So, in theory, were the stratosphere warm sufficiently to erode, split or displace the polar vortex, one should begin to see that outcome showing up on the CFSv2's week 4 forecasts. FWIW, Arctic sea ice was more than 200,000 square kilometers below the previous daily record for 2/2. Another record appears very likely when today's data is released tonight. Incidentally, the last two runs of the GFS have turned cold throughout the extended range. That's quite different from the weeklies that had been touting warmer anomalies after the possible Arctic outbreak. That's still way out there, but at least there's a piece of guidance that argues against assuming a rapid return of much warmer conditions. Hopefully, that colder guidance will be reaffirmed in subsequent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Just a few more inches necessary for NYC to go 40-30" on the winter. A normal or above normal February temperature finish would lock the DJF 40 degree reading in. NYC is already well ahead of the 3 other 40 degree winters in the snowfall department. 15-16....42.7....27.2"...so far. 01-02....41.5......3.5" 11-12....40.5......7.4" 31-32....40.1".....5.3" I would think NYC could get at least 2.8 inches of snow in the next 2 weeks given the pattern...maybe even 12.8 to get to 40-40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 40 degree winters are normal further south in the Midatlantic, While 30" or higher snowfall is average further north over the Northeast. I wonder if a 40-30 or 40-40 winter ever occurred close to sea level in the US? There's at least one: 1979-80 in Norfolk Seasonal snowfall: 41.9" December-February mean temperature: 40.1° December-March mean temperature: 41.7° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 1948-49 was the warmest winter in NYC with over 40" of snow...it averaged 38.5 with 46.6"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 It's possible that this winter at least dec through feb could be warmer 97-98! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 It's possible that this winter at least dec through feb could be warmer 97-98! But with a lot more snow for some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 But with a lot more snow for some areas NYC had 5.5 inches that year and philly around an inch but the interior did ok! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Thanks, Don...I was thinking that the Midatlantic would be the place to look for such an occurrence. I agree. FWIW, if the 12z operational GFS is reasonably accurate, DJF would have a high probability of finishing with a mean temperature at or above 40° for meteorological winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 It's possible that this winter at least dec through feb could be warmer 97-98! That's because Dec of 97 wasn't warm. It was bad timing as all our good storms were in Jan and Feb that year while temps were torching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Day 10-12 look very interesting on the models for a huge storm as the AO goes positive. The set up is very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Kinda surprised that no one mentioned the EPS PARA 46 day from today. Pretty stout +PNA ridge for the 2nd half of FEB going into MAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Day 10-12 look very interesting on the models for a huge storm as the AO goes positive. The set up is very nice GFS has a overrunning snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Kinda surprised that no one mentioned the EPS PARA 46 day from today. Pretty stout +PNA ridge for the 2nd half of FEB going into MAR.Does that lead to another cold march ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Does that lead to another cold march ? Well we'll have to see how it plays out. I'd take my chances with a +PNA any day though. That should at least allow some shortwaves to amplify in the east if it can work out. Who knows if that even happens though, that's way out there in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 With the GFS showing continued cold after mid-month and the ECMWF oscillating between cold and warm anomalies in its extended range, it's still premature to assume that the very warm weekly guidance for the period beyond mid-February will necessarily verify. A lot will depend on whether blocking is sustained or redevelops. The most recent GFS ensembles suggest more blockiness than had been shown even a few days ago. Hence, any warm up after mid-month relative to normal, if it occurs, may be delayed or even short-lived. Should the blocking break down as had previously been indicated, then the prospects of a sustained warmer period would increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 A lot of potential on the Euro. Early next week,next weekend and then the week after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 A lot of potential on the Euro. Early next week,next weekend and then the week after. If we realize all that potential Nassau could make a run at our snowiest winter ever. Already at 35" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 12z Euro takes the city down to 0 on Sunday 2/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 i think it comes a bit more west with that pig ridge to our east congrats you nailed this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Long range sure looks chilly. This may catch the general public off guard, more so than the surprise pack whitener today. My wife was shocked at the snow today from being "50F yesterday!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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