IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Way out in la la land but this kind of goes along with my thinking of a threat around mid-month. Kind of the same problem that we had today this run but I think this period bears watching. Pretty good signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Don Sutherland had a detailed disco in the main forum on where he thinks we may be headed for February earlier on this morning. Good read. Link: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/page-6? There's a lot of uncertainty--enough that some of the conventional expectations related to reduced blocking might not be as applicable as in most winters. Even as it is far from assured, the 12z GFS's idea of a big storm near the 10th highlights the degree of uncertainty. With the anomalous SSTAs in the Atlantic, there's more potential than usual for a storm to deepen rapidly with a large-scale impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Everyone is obviously aware that the models 10 days out are in fantasy land. Heck, some models can't even figure it out within 2 days of the event. There's virtually always a monster storm 10 days out on at least one of the models. Out of curiosity, how often do those storms (10 days out) actually verify? I'd be surprised if it's over 1/5000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Nice anafrontal hit for Friday on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 GGEM and GFS have a snow event for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 GGEM and GFS have a snow event for Friday 6Z GFS keeps the frontal wave well offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 So the million dollar question on the Feb 8-11 storm track is does it... 1) hug the coast too closely for a warmer track with a big phase and strong ridge to the east 2) take a BM colder track 3) come out in pieces with the southern stream staying suppressed and a northern stream clipper The EPS holding the core of the cold back over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes may mean that the baroclinic zone sets up very close to the coast for storm formation. MJO 4-5 in a strong El Nino typically has stronger ridging just off the East Coast. In regards to the MJO - it is forecasted to go into the COD the next couple of days - there is still the possibility it could stay there through the end of the storm threat period 8th to 11th. Some of our biggest storms have occurred with the MJO in the COD - one being The Blizzard of 2016. MJO phase for 40 daysclose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 So the million dollar question on the Feb 8-11 storm track is does it... 1) hug the coast too closely for a warmer track with a big phase and strong ridge to the east 2) take a BM colder track 3) come out in pieces with the southern stream staying suppressed and a northern stream clipper The EPS holding the core of the cold back over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes may mean that the baroclinic zone sets up very close to the coast for storm formation. MJO 4-5 in a strong El Nino typically has stronger ridging just off the East Coast. With the coldest anomalies in the CONUS just to our W from the 5th thru the 20th and ridging just to our E you set up an EC storm track . With a STJ we have not seen our last big one . The mean NEG will def be focused through the lakes but with a NEG EPO/POS PNA you will likely not cut many systems. As the PV digs into HB watch the N branch , we will likely see a few clippers and the bigger potential will b found as the vortex relaxes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 6Z GFS keeps the frontal wave well offshore Yep, so does the Euro and EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 AO looks better this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 After the 3rd we cool down but the models have backed way, way off on a significant arctic intrusion all the way to the coast. The thermal gradient is projected well west now. I think the best period for another snow event if there is to be one, will be after the 10th, once the cold starts to retreat. The edge of retreating cold is another prime time for a storm. I think whatever happens from Feb 8th -10th cuts west, apps runner or coastal hugger perhaps and turns out warm/wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 After the 3rd we cool down but the models have backed way, way off on a significant arctic intrusion all the way to the coast. The thermal gradient is projected well west now. I think the best period for another snow event if there is to be one, will be after the 10th, once the cold starts to retreat. The edge of retreating cold is another prime time for a storm. I think whatever happens from Feb 8th -10th cuts west, apps runner or coastal hugger perhaps and turns out warm/wet. Blame it on the "Super Niño". It's a beautiful thing. So you backing off on your thoughts that we have to wait until February to see our snow ? If anything this pattern could favor ice issues rather than warm and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 It just looks very active and you're introducing Arctic intrusions into an intense STJ. We risk cutters or coastal huggers but it's going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Blame it on the "Super Niño". It's a beautiful thing. So you backing off on your thoughts that we have to wait until February to see our snow ? If anything this pattern could favor ice issues rather than warm and wet. That is a good point made about the "ice issues". That is one element of winter weather we have not experienced yet this season and with all the arctic high pressure forecasted to the north previous to the 8 -11 threat--there is the threat of cold air damming down the east side of the Apps - the chance any storm that decides to take a slightly inland track could start off here as ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 AO looks better this morning it looks better today than yesterday...If it ever gets as low as some members show look out!... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 After the 3rd we cool down but the models have backed way, way off on a significant arctic intrusion all the way to the coast. The thermal gradient is projected well west now. I think the best period for another snow event if there is to be one, will be after the 10th, once the cold starts to retreat. The edge of retreating cold is another prime time for a storm. I think whatever happens from Feb 8th -10th cuts west, apps runner or coastal hugger perhaps and turns out warm/wet. I disagree. Models are showing a negative epo, +pna pattern which should yield cold to very cold temps during this month. Watch out if the AO goes negative. I dont see anything cutting in this upcoming pattern . The weeklies also show the nao going negative towards the end of month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Once past the 5th the guidance advertises a - EPO/+PNA/-AO from the 5th through the 20th . That does not portend Warm and Wet on the EC / instead the guidance is cold and wet . KNYC is only +1.7 for Jan with 1 +18 and 1 + 15 ( There is your departure ) so the rest of the month did not torch and it sure was not snowless . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 What would have the January departure been if you remove the 1 +15 and the 1 +18 anomaly? I have a feeling Uncle already has the answer to this question! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 What would have the January departure been if you remove the 1 +15 and the 1 +18 anomaly? I have a feeling Uncle already has the answer to this question! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk + .6 to date . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 2 or 3 days of Jan week 1 was considerably AN skewing things too I believe ...although one of those +15/18 days could be from there. Still a sizable shift in temps from December with different indices at play than December. Say what u want when playing with the numbers but the pattern did shift. Couldn't even sniff a snow storm in December. And if I remember correctly we came close to setting a December record for least amount of nights dipping to 32 or lower. Feb looks eerily similar to feb2014...would be nice to get a cooperating blocking scheme to set up with it this time Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 2 or 3 days of Jan week 1 was considerably AN skewing things too I believe Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 1- 5 were BN . 2 lake cutters did the trick . 9/10 15/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 1- 5 were BN . 2 lake cutters did the trick . 9/10 15/16 Ahh right my bad. The week 2 warmup was seen by you even before the 1-5 cool down happened. Now I remember. Thanks PB. Thanks for all your blood, sweat and tears! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 so far NYC has 22 days with a minimum 32 or lower this season...it's the second lowest amount on record up to 1/31... year....amount of 32 min days... 2001-02.......20 2015-16.......22 2011-12.......23 2006-07.......24 1931-32.......24 the only good thing about 2015-16 being on this list is it has almost as much snow as the other four combined... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 What would have the January departure been if you remove the 1 +15 and the 1 +18 anomaly? I have a feeling Uncle already has the answer to this question! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk What would have been the snow total this month if you remove the HECS +20 inch anomaly? A snowstorm skews the records the same way a cutter does. Anyway, what exactly says that this SSW won't be a FSWE, a la 2010? We might get a huge snowstorm in early-mid February, then flip to warm. The models (though for now, mostly the GFS shows this, as the ECM only goes out to h240) do show the arctic intrusions slowing down and the cold air retreating north around mid Feb, even though for now it's way out there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 What would have been the snow total this month if you remove the HECS +20 inch anomaly? A snowstorm skews the records the same way a cutter does. Anyway, what exactly says that this SSW won't be a FSWE, a la 2010? We might get a huge snowstorm in early-mid February, then flip to warm. The models (though for now, mostly the GFS shows this, as the ECM only goes out to h240) do show the arctic intrusions slowing down and the cold air retreating north around mid Feb, even though for now it's way out there . D 10 - 15 is colder than D 6 -10 on the EPS along the EC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 With the coldest anomalies in the CONUS just to our W from the 5th thru the 20th and ridging just to our E you set up an EC storm track . With a STJ we have not seen our last big one . These systems have all trended W this year so you may not want to be the JP this far away . The mean NEG will def be focused through the lakes like FEB 14 but with a NEG EPO/POS PNA you will likely not cut many systems. As the PV digs into HB watch the N branch , we will likely see a few clippers and the bigger potential will b found as the vortex relaxes Well, i'm always a little skeptical, but I wouldn't dismiss anything you have to say at this point....you were calling for potential since end of Dec and well we all saw what happened, hats off to bluewave and Snow88 ( who never gives up ) and all the others in that camp as well. Not ordering a new snowblower yet, but keeping the pac boots within reach.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 What would have been the snow total this month if you remove the HECS +20 inch anomaly? A snowstorm skews the records the same way a cutter does. . Point taken. And...Paul's battle has been the pattern the entire time. December didn't come close to a pattern that setup a 20+ HECS. However, A Jan pattern change (.from December) gave us a pattern conducive for a KU event. Dec and Jan will both end up AN but let's not pretend they behaved similarly in any other way. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 D 10 - 15 is colder than D 6 -10 on the EPS along the EC . I know, that's why I said "way out there", I'm taking any changes to warm in the LR with a grain of salt, for now. Also, if you look at stratospheric temps in the past few decades, years with a relatively "stagnant" stratosphere throughout January (like ours right now) that then go through a major warming around February, tend to be the final warmings of the year (like 2010, for instance). However, there are very few analogs with a stratosphere similar to ours this year, so it may not be much evidence anyway, but it's still a slight correlation, so I decided to throw that possibility out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I like whats showing up in the long range after the first week of February +pna, -epo, and perhaps some -nao help in the uber long range. Obviously without much blocking we are going to risk cutters and messy storms. It should be active and we could potentially be setting ourselves up for something bigger in the 2nd half of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 With the coldest anomalies in the CONUS just to our W from the 5th thru the 20th and ridging just to our E you set up an EC storm track . With a STJ we have not seen our last big one . These systems have all trended W this year so you may not want to be the JP this far away . The mean NEG will def be focused through the lakes like FEB 14 but with a NEG EPO/POS PNA you will likely not cut many systems. As the PV digs into HB watch the N branch , we will likely see a few clippers and the bigger potential will b found as the vortex relaxes Does HB stand for Hudson Bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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