Rick G Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Backing up a moment to the Monday/Tuesday storm, I predicted late Sunday that more than 50% of the total liquid from the storm would be from melted frozen and freezing precipitation. Well, I only just barely lost. The total liquid from the storm was 1.87". The total precip that fell before the temperature rose above 32.0 degrees was 0.88", and the total rainfall that came after the temp rose above freezing was 0.99". So, I only missed my prediction by 0.11". Not too bad, huh? One other interesting thing was that all 0.99" of rain fell with the temperature remaining below 34.0 degrees. So, my prediction of the CAD lasting much longer (at least for my area and on down the 81 corridor) was correct. The moment that the rain ended is when my temperature began to rise steadily, reaching an afternoon high of 43. By mid afternoon there was no evidence left that we had ever had an ice storm. Pretty wild day as others alluded to. I think that this would be considered "tribal knowledge"--local knowledge that you get with experience in an area. Obviously you spent enough time in the area to know some of the "norms" that you were able to apply to your forecast. Call it Gut instinct, WAG or something else but that is what people like DT, JB and others don't have. they bring all kinds of head knowledge into a forecast but miss the local factors. Good Job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 GFS and CMC just rained on the parade in more ways than one. Both have light snows turning to heavy rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 GFS and CMC just rained on the parade in more ways than one. Both have light snows turning to heavy rains. But what does the NAM say? At the point I want it to be sunny and 85 outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 12z ECMWF is a major hit from TN-Maine SPA gets in on the action as well. Anyone wanna throw up the EuroWx maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Euro basically goes to the common snow event with bigger totals for the LSV and 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Hi gang? Still interested? http://www.jma.go.jp/en/week/302.html http://beringsearule.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Euro basically goes to the common snow event with bigger totals for the LSV and 95 corridor. Euro nailed the last event...much rather have the euro on my side especially at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 As we have seen, the Euro is great at getting mid term trends. it is good at near term forecasting. I would like to see everything a bit to the south and east at this point and then watch the models move in to the west. I would bet that this one moves and gets lost before the short term forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 00Z EC AND GEFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHARPAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THEEARLY TO MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS IDAHO AND THE REST OF THEINTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS THE IDEAL LOCATION FOR DOWNSTREAM ENERGY TODIG INTO THE BASE OF AN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND TRIGGER COASTALLOW DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING.OPERATIONAL EC AND GEFS BOTH SHOW SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRNGOMEX TUESDAY...THEN A GENERAL TRACK AND DEEPENING OF A SFC LOW NEALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WED NIGHT. PLAN TOINCREASE POPS FOR THE TUESDAY-WED NIGHT PERIOD WITH THE NEXT...12ZGRIDDED DATA/ZONE PACKAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Before we get to the storm, looks like most everyone has a shot at 50 this weekend, with conditions much better than Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 GFS remains a few inches of snow before changing to a heavy rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 gfs shows more decent snows if you live closer to NY state border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 couple of nice snow bands going through. A quick 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 This is a storm coming up from the south, which is the type of storm that the Euro will lead the way. The EPS ensemble mean at 12z had a 5-6 inch average across all of CTP. I just went through all of the 50 ensemble members for the period of the storm. 30 of the members had at least 3 inches or more. Out of these 30 members, 10 had around 3 inches, 10 had 6 inches or more, and 10 had around 12 inches or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Some outlet, maybe Accuweather, is really hyping the system next Tuesday. I am hearing about it repeatedly even in Florida (Facebook). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Too funny if you think about this. This week storm had bitter cold front warm backside. Next week will be warm front end cold backside. Going to be fun. Like this winter this far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 GFS isn't budging. 0z is again light snow to heavy rain. CMC has a coastal very far east and it doesn't give anyone here much precip. It's really warm with the 32 line all the way up into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 from a quick look - 0z Euro has low track from Alabama and come north through Apps with a late and jump to coast when further north to around DelMaRVa allowing southeast PA to be warmer than 12z run but ensemble mean and a number of members support a more southern and favorable transition to coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 man....its quiet in here.....lets shake it up a little. Pattern is sounding tasty beyond into early/mid March... I'm off the grid till Sunday (headed snowmobiling in Northern PA)....so ya'll better bring this one home for me... Nut 12z GFS 144-180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 last post.... through 348 PS....I can look in from afar, but cant login from stupid smart phone...driving me nuts. Soooo...I"m officially lurking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 last post.... through 348 PS....I can look in from afar, but cant login from stupid smart phone...driving me nuts. Soooo...I"m officially lurking.... EOM storm is a monster, verbatim on GFS - FWIW (not much right now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 At least down this way, Horst says next week looks like a rain or mix event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 What the CMC did to NEPA is illegal in 46 states and multiple overseas territories... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Lol how far away are these storms? Unless day 3,mehhhhhhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Lol how far away are these storms? Unless day 3,mehhhhhhh. i saw one stamped : int:12z / 02-20-2017 GFS Think that's to far out to watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 No definitely not, was hearing next Wednesday though, which seems a bit out. Thanks, Jon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 GEFS still pretty wintry for the midweek fiasco. http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/ensembles/Plumes.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 12z Euro Para run was great for snow for all of CTP for the mid week event next week. York/ Lancaster= 6 inches I -81 area from Harrisburg to Scranton= 10 inches State College/Altoona = 15 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Entertainment purposes only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I love the NAM. Long may it reign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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