NortheastPAWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Good job AVP sensor, right at the big moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This one will perform. Interesting weather at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Dave needs to move that right side of D west 50 miles IMO. I love for him to be right, but the track just doesnt fit his forecast...unless it continues to tick east towards 95, Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'd be thrilled with 4-8" out here, but expecting more like 2-3" of cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm glad someone else is noticing how much melting occurs at bitterly cold temperatures. I was questioned about that when I said something earlier in the thread. Yea I notice also. The woods behind my house have a southern exposure and the ground is showing now where it didn't yesterday. And the deer noticed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Latest afternoon model runs seem to argue that the low end of Dave's D-zone has a pretty good shot at verifying....ie, 4". Not unreasonable at all. Also, looks like most of our area does not rise above freezing until after dawn Tuesday morning, not mid to late Monday evening. I still think we see warning-criteria ice here. We'll see pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It'll go east a bit. Coastal plain track ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 12z EPS ensemble mean shows 3-4 inches of snow for this event through most of the CTP region. The best part is that the EPS continues to advertise a winter pattern re- load. We will warm up for about 5 days, & then step back down the last week of the month into a pattern with the trough in the east. The EPS snow map by the end if the run on day 15 , which takes us to the end of the month, shows around 8 inches near Harrisburg, & over 10 inches to the north & west through the CTP region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 What is warning criteria ice for this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 What is warning criteria ice for this area? 0.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 0.25" Thats what i thought but started second guessing! Thanks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 DT FINAL CALL No changes 4-8" for pretty much all of us. JB 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 It looks to me like it could be a steady snow here in Newcumberland by 1:00am give or take an hour. Im getting my coffee and coveralls ready. I hope I can end my winter Layoff on a more snowy note than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Damn, just looked at radar, gonna be knocking on our door before i thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 A very downplayed forecast form CTP. 1-2" snow/sleet, basically no ice accretion. Tonight A chance of light snow, mainly after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Washington's BirthdaySnow likely before 5pm, then freezing rain and sleet. High near 30. Southeast wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Monday Night Freezing rain and sleet before 8pm, then rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain between 8pm and 2am, then rain, possibly mixed with freezing rain after 2am. Temperature rising to around 36 by 5am. Southeast wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation expected. Tuesday Rain, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 8am, then rain between 8am and 5pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 5pm. High near 42. South wind 5 to 7 mph becoming northwest in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Tuesday Night A chance of rain and snow showers before 8pm, then a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The snowmap is weak for everyone SE of State College. The ice forecast mirrors. I love how the majority of the heavy ice accretion is halted at the Mason-Dixon line, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The NAM is basically dry through 21z as the 0c line is starting to move north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 NAM confirms CTP's forecast it looks like. Very little precip before Tuesday morning when it'll be all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 :crickets: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Lol figures we can't even get cad right this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 http://www.spia-index.com/WDP-files/NE_total_ice.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Now that we beginning to get into the now-casting/obs aspect of this upcoming storm, I wanted to introduce my new tool that compares real radar to simulated HRRR and NAM4km radar. Check it out! www.jmmweather.com/HRRR.html www.jmmweather.com/NAM.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Jmister that is amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 http://www.spia-index.com/WDP-files/NE_total_ice.png there must be a plot to keep NEPAWeather and I out of the snow/sleet and freezing rain. Both Luzerne and Lackawanna have no ice predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I had serious triger finger on the Folgers. Now what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Final call: MDT: 1.5" snow/sleet mix, .1" ice accretion, .6" rain State College: 3 snow/sleet (most snow), .2" ice accretion, .4" rain Clearfield: 4.5" snow/sleet (most snow), .25" ice accretion, .5" rain Williamsport: Same as State College York: Same as MDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 amazing every other storm we want a westward move and don't get it. This storm we want an eastern move.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Amazing... The initial slug of moisture is moving due east...through Virginia, Maryland, and into DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Euro gives rochester 2 feet. Nw part of state a foot plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Very light snow at my house for last 20 mins or so . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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