Blizzard of 93 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 All week this has been advertised by most models & mets as a storm that would start as snow & them flip to ice & possibly rain. Unfortunately, There is no blocking to hold in the Artic cold. The I-81 crowd from LSV to NEPA should get at least a few inches of snow, then a long period of freezing rain, the maybe end as rain. It is frustrating that this wont be all snow especially because of the current extreme cold. Most of the winter storms over the years involve a rain/ snow line somewhere near the LSV. If we didn't have the historic blizzard 3 weeks ago, I'd be upset now as well with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 All week this has been advertised by most models & mets as a storm that would start as snow & them flip to ice & possibly rain. Unfortunately, There is no blocking to hold in the Artic cold. The I-81 crowd from LSV to NEPA should get at least a few inches of snow, then a long period of freezing rain, the maybe end as rain. It is frustrating that this wont be all snow especially because of the current extreme cold. Most of the winter storms over the years involve a rain/ snow line somewhere near the LSV. If we didn't have the historic blizzard 3 weeks ago, I'd be upset now as well with this storm. Sorry Deluge of rain is more appropriate now. The Euro locked in as our blizzard locked in with the NAM and done. Hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 All week this has been advertised by most models & mets as a storm that would start as snow & them flip to ice & possibly rain. Unfortunately, There is no blocking to hold in the Artic cold. The I-81 crowd from LSV to NEPA should get at least a few inches of snow, then a long period of freezing rain, the maybe end as rain. It is frustrating that this wont be all snow especially because of the current extreme cold. Most of the winter storms over the years involve a rain/ snow line somewhere near the LSV. If we didn't have the historic blizzard 3 weeks ago, I'd be upset now as well with this storm. Modelscare aligning to maybe 2" snow then a ton of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GFS is basically a glorified cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GFS is the Euro. Wow what a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GFS is basically a glorified cold front. At least the rain down here will clear salt away. Fir you maybe the warm rain will gve you a jumpstart on a garden! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GGEM keeps hope for a front-end dump alive before it ultimately goes to ice and deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GGEM still in play and consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greensnow Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 -3F at midnight here in Clarks Green. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I don't care what the models say regarding a deluge of pure rain. From Cumberland county, west of MDT, southward along the 81 corridor through Franklin county towards HGR and further south, the cold will hold on the longest and will provide the greatest opportunity for a prolonged ice storm. I am willing to bet that the amount of liquid derived from frozen and freezing precip will exceed any amount of pure rainfall for the areas I just outlined. Our valley, between Blue Mountain and South Mountain always traps the cold air the longest with events such as this upcoming one. Furthermore, the last two runs of the Euro have given up on an apps runner bomb and have weakened substantially the lowest pressures and have the storm center further east towards I-95. Maybe I'll eat my words after the fact, but please do not give all the credit to the Euro for calling this storm correctly. The storm as it depicted just 24 hours ago is not, in fact, going to play out as it had shown. The Nam may not have many redeeming qualities, but it is almost always superior in its depiction of CAD, and tonight's runs of both 12k and 4k show even stronger CAD than prior runs. Food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I don't care what the models say regarding a deluge of pure rain. From Cumberland county, west of MDT, southward along the 81 corridor through Franklin county towards HGR and further south, the cold will hold on the longest and will provide the greatest opportunity for a prolonged ice storm. I am willing to bet that the amount of liquid derived from frozen and freezing precip will exceed any amount of pure rainfall for the areas I just outlined. Our valley, between Blue Mountain and South Mountain always traps the cold air the longest with events such as this upcoming one. Furthermore, the last two runs of the Euro have given up on an apps runner bomb and have weakened substantially the lowest pressures and have the storm center further east towards I-95. Maybe I'll eat my words after the fact, but please do not give all the credit to the Euro for calling this storm correctly. The storm as it depicted just 24 hours ago is not, in fact, going to play out as it had shown. The Nam may not have many redeeming qualities, but it is almost always superior in its depiction of CAD, and tonight's runs of both 12k and 4k show even stronger CAD than prior runs. Food for thought. Fantastic post. I could not agree more. CAD in the Susquehanna Valley usually holds strong unless there is a massive cutter & no good cold air mass in front. We have a frigid Artic airmass, current snow cover, & a pretty weak low passing to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Well I made it down to zero. Wondering if I can drop one more? I also wonder how cold it could have been if there was no wind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 minus 2 here this morn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 4 at the house just NW of HGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 -7 here, it may have been down to -9 at one point. I didn't have my glasses on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 -2 here...coldest day for me this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 -3 both at house and golf course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Did it. Got down to -1, but now back to zero. Since it's after 8am and the sun is up, I doubt it'll go back down, so -1 looks to be the low for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Coldest coop report I could find was Kane at -16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I don't care what the models say regarding a deluge of pure rain. From Cumberland county, west of MDT, southward along the 81 corridor through Franklin county towards HGR and further south, the cold will hold on the longest and will provide the greatest opportunity for a prolonged ice storm. I am willing to bet that the amount of liquid derived from frozen and freezing precip will exceed any amount of pure rainfall for the areas I just outlined. Our valley, between Blue Mountain and South Mountain always traps the cold air the longest with events such as this upcoming one. Furthermore, the last two runs of the Euro have given up on an apps runner bomb and have weakened substantially the lowest pressures and have the storm center further east towards I-95. Maybe I'll eat my words after the fact, but please do not give all the credit to the Euro for calling this storm correctly. The storm as it depicted just 24 hours ago is not, in fact, going to play out as it had shown. The Nam may not have many redeeming qualities, but it is almost always superior in its depiction of CAD, and tonight's runs of both 12k and 4k show even stronger CAD than prior runs. Food for thought. yes i couldn't agree more The cold air is harder to move out of the deeper valley in the Susquehanna Valley. and it has been below freezing for days now, so it will take awhile imo till the cold air retreats out of the valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greensnow Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 -11 here right now in Clarks Green. BRUTAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 -4 at my church in (near_ dallas PA) it was -3 when we left my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 We've seen this dog and pony show before in the LSV. 3" snow, .15 frzn to plain rain on Tuesday. Schools with early dismissal on Monday, closed Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 We've seen this dog and pony show before in the LSV. 3" snow, .15 frzn to plain rain on Tuesday. Schools with early dismissal on Monday, closed Tuesday. That's probably 100% on the nose lol. I'll tuck this away and see how close you get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 12z NAM doesn't even have a thump and the 0c line almost up to Erie. EURO wins let's move onto to the next one hope before Feb ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 12z NAM doesn't even have a thump and the 0c line almost up to Erie. EURO wins let's move onto to the next one hope before Feb ends. At this point I almost like that scenario. Wash the salt off the roads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 The NAM winds up a pretty potent low over Eastern PA. With such a deepening low, it actually tries to make the wintry part of the event more on the back end of the storm for the central and maybe even the Sus Valley. Hour 63 had significant deform precip (prob snow at this point) in the north central and moderate curling back into the Sus Valley. Def an interesting take, though not necessarily something that hasn't already been hinted at times in previous models runs (esp the Euro). Like I said the other day, this setup is going to present a limited and narrow zone of heavier snow and ice. With the high pushed east and essentially out of the picture, it's a poor setup for sustained cold air damming (although the central ridge and valley region will put up a bit more of a fight as usual) and it's going to come down to the track of the storm. It appears the Euro has won the battle with that, as guidance has decidedly moved to a more inside solution lifting the low up through eastern PA. Heck the 6z GFS was almost a GLC and it rained on all of PA at one point. But if we get the deep low per the NAM solution, it does present the opportunity for some to change back over. It is pretty amazing that a large portion of the Northeast as a whole is going to get rained on hardly a couple days after one of the most significant arctic blasts in recent history for upstate and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This has never been a legit "off the coast for all snow" type event. The coastal scraper or inland runner (I-95 in general) has been the most likely outcome. The 12z NAM just came very close to pulling off the coastal scraper, but did the inland runner. Verbatim, a frozen sandwich scenario. The soundings at Hr60 of the NAM show it snowing hard in a stripe from about Mansfield to York including St College and Hbg - problem is its doing it after rain (but there was about 2" SN and ZR before the rain) and the temps are crashing but still near 37f - then full snow for the SRV main axis thereafter. The upper level maps are very very close to making this a huge storm while not pulling it west, but shoving it more east. I don't have time to post those ATTM but will try later. We've known of this threat for weeks now - Whether you agree, or not, is cool with me but I'll always call this one PDIII - when all is said and done. All peace - - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The 12z NAM was an interesting run as MAG just detailed. It's certainly not storm cancel. The front end is still 2-3 inches snow for the LSV followed by freezing rain then rain then possible switch back to snow. Also , the front end was better to our South on this run, showing the DC area getting 5 inches of snow. How many times have we seen The front end precip travel further north than modeled ? I wouldn't be shocked to see the front end trend better for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 0z Euro Para model still had 3-4 inches of snow for the LSV Before the change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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