Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Some standing water leftover on Atlantic Ave and Langworthy Road from this morning's high tide in the Weekapaug/Misquamicut area. Didn't drive want to drive through what looked 6 inches maybe a foot of salt water so I wasn't able to get any sort of accurate water depth on Atlantic. The breachway flooded near a low section on Langworthy and Winnapaug pond flooded near the section of Atlantic where the pond is closest to the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Just talked to Kocin for 15 minutes. He's happier than a Clam on Clam day on an August Morning in Nrragansett. Said "Even with Boston missing out, this could be in the 1993 / 1996 category." as those are well and truly ahead of the rest of the pack on the NESIS scale. He might have it done by today! The Snowman from Sunny LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Nice can you post a larger view? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 who are you and why dont you post in here more often!! best post of the winter so far! Private sector met here in Burlington, CT; lots of private operational forecasting for school systems & snow removal folks (both private & public); a couple of Northeast energy associations & forensic work for insurance companies (for 25 plus yrs). Know the crew over at NBC30 well and have great respect for the work Ryan, Bob and Brad over over there do; am lucky enough to be able to bounce forecasting ideas around with them from time to time. Have been a friend of Walt Drag for years and usually we find the time to talk during the run up to big eastern events; in fact he has been a great teacher for me with a whole host of forecasting situations. In terms of posting, mainly a matter of time and feel once I post there would be an obligation (and rightly so) to go back and forth with questions or to clarify a statements that I just do not have the time to do. Even on twitter I will go days or a week or more without posting and then find a few tweet responses for folks looking for an answer to something I sent out. This forum is blessed to have the likes of Ryan, ORH, Coastal WX and Oceanstate contributing their time and efforts; plus the contributions from the well skilled amateurs such as 40/70 & ginx and others which are better than most things posted on other forums. I may try to post a bit more, if I think I can lend anything useful to the discuss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 And that picture is Rediculas. NW CT got NO snow.... NYC? #1 storm all-time. That may be the single most insane thing about this storm. Honestly. Insane. That kind of thing happens in Lake Effect areas. Not BECS's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Report from Misquamicut from a surfer friend Clean long period over head swell. Point panic looks best. Ocean broke through at PUCCIS and the pond flooded Atlantic ave down by SEASIDE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Sweet - yeah you guys were in some really good banding. It was definitely the place to be. Pretty epic drop off to your east and northwest... only 4.0" in Norwich! You should send in your obs to cocorahs - it's a great way to share and keep track of rain/snow data. that Norwich number? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 And that picture is Rediculas. NW CT got NO snow.... NYC? #1 storm all-time. That may be the single most insane thing about this storm. Honestly. Insane. That kind of thing happens in Lake Effect areas. Not BECS's. 96 had a pretty sharp gradient to the NW as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Private sector met here in Burlington, CT; lots of private operational forecasting for school systems & snow removal folks (both private & public); a couple of Northeast energy associations & forensic work for insurance companies (for 25 plus yrs). Know the crew over at NBC30 well and have great respect for the work Ryan, Bob and Brad over over there do; am lucky enough to be able to bounce forecasting ideas around with them from time to time. Have been a friend of Walt Drag for years and usually we find the time to talk during the run up to big eastern events; in fact he has been a great teacher for me with a whole host of forecasting situations. In terms of posting, mainly a matter of time and feel once I post there would be an obligation (and rightly so) to go back and forth with questions or to clarify a statements that I just do not have the time to do. Even on twitter I will go days or a week or more without posting and then find a few tweet responses for folks looking for an answer to something I sent out. This forum is blessed to have the likes of Ryan, ORH, Coastal WX and Oceanstate contributing their time and efforts; plus the contributions from the well skilled amateurs such as 40/70 & ginx and others which are better than most things posted on other forums. I may try to post a bit more, if I think I can lend anything useful to the discuss...thanks for the compliment, please come around more. Great analysis earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Updated WV history loop for the storm. Probably the final one - my computer's starting to have trouble managing such a big file Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 MODIS http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/ First sat pass great pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Nice Kev Here's the full coast... what a beauty: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 NAM was partially right...it scored the coup of showing the much further north solution, but verbatim it was too far north which is why it's forecasts in places like Hartford and Boston weren't really any better than the Euro....but for places like NYC, down over to Morristown and Trenton into E PA it was much better than the Euro. There was a point there about 72h out where a lot of guidance was struggling to get good snow past Philly. It was unbelievable. I was in center city watching that band not even 10 miles away. Perhaps the bit of elevation just west of the city had something to do with it. 3 times it edged down and we got into heavy snow, and then poof! When it finally moved through it was fast and weakening. I got about 16 or so but 9 or 10 fell in a great front ended overnight. Missed 30 inches by 10 or 15 miles. I feel for all the victims of subsidence. Check out HM tweets for the most stark clear edge of a non moving band you will ever see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Private sector met here in Burlington, CT; lots of private operational forecasting for school systems & snow removal folks (both private & public); a couple of Northeast energy associations & forensic work for insurance companies (for 25 plus yrs). Know the crew over at NBC30 well and have great respect for the work Ryan, Bob and Brad over over there do; am lucky enough to be able to bounce forecasting ideas around with them from time to time. Have been a friend of Walt Drag for years and usually we find the time to talk during the run up to big eastern events; in fact he has been a great teacher for me with a whole host of forecasting situations. In terms of posting, mainly a matter of time and feel once I post there would be an obligation (and rightly so) to go back and forth with questions or to clarify a statements that I just do not have the time to do. Even on twitter I will go days or a week or more without posting and then find a few tweet responses for folks looking for an answer to something I sent out. This forum is blessed to have the likes of Ryan, ORH, Coastal WX and Oceanstate contributing their time and efforts; plus the contributions from the well skilled amateurs such as 40/70 & ginx and others which are better than most things posted on other forums. I may try to post a bit more, if I think I can lend anything useful to the discuss...First name John? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Beautifully groomed snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Lol.Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Lol.Awesome Hilarious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2016 Author Share Posted January 24, 2016 the only thing missing from this system was that it did not tuck closer in and take a benchmark track. the eastward jog or kick is what prevented this beast from being up with 96 or 93 imo. Of course, for dc to nyc, its a different take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I agree..we got the glancing blow, and were t in the heavy stuff long enough like NYC and DC. I ended up with 8 inches. Not to shabby. I will say though, when it did snow very hard, it was impressive with the wind. Good moderate storm here for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 that Norwich number? Yeah - I sort of groaned when I saw it but we actually got 2 reports from Norwich... one of 4" and one of 5" so maybe it's valid. Also, there definitely was a sucker hole from Norwich SW to Westbrook/Old Saybrook. Only about 5" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 First name John? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Yeah - I sort of groaned when I saw it but we actually got 2 reports from Norwich... one of 4" and one of 5" so maybe it's valid. Also, there definitely was a sucker hole from Norwich SW to Westbrook/Old Saybrook. Only about 5" here. will measure at work in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I feel like the storms in blocking patterns are modeled with some accuracy fairly well almost a week out. Blocking regimes are stable so it's not a huge surprise I suppose. This was kind of a s/w that snuck in and closed off. No real phasing...just dumbelling along. Probably easier to model that way. Good point about modeling and blocking. I also tend to think the "big storms are modeled at long lead" is also because people remember them more when a monster is modeled at long lead and then pans out. Everyone forgets the day 6-7 bombs that disappear by day 4....but remembers those ones that actually follow all the way through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Had similarities to '96, albeit further south. '93 was another type...raced up hugging the coast right to Maine. February 1983 is a pretty good analog I think, if we shift everything about about 50-75 miles south this time. the only thing missing from this system was that it did not tuck closer in and take a benchmark track. the eastward jog or kick is what prevented this beast from being up with 96 or 93 imo. Of course, for dc to nyc, its a different take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Before it fades, what's the Memento tattoo we're giving this blizzard regarding guidance? My impression was that many pro forecasters (and myself and many here) were led astray by the Euro / RGEM and skepticism of the NAM, but in the end the NAM led the way and crushed other guidance with the significantly more north track and prodigious qpf especially in NYC, as well as the easternmost of the dual-low kicking back a CCB for us. Do we mark this one, like Juno Jan 29 2015, as another really impactful Euro subpar performance within 24 hours? And a rare but really significant NAM coop? I still think this is somewhat overplayed. Yes the Euro had significant QPF into NYC, but they still ended up with 9.8" at NYC, and 24.7" at ISP just 45 miles away. On a model scale that's about 5 grid points. I really think the bigger issue is that a subtle shift like that is magnified when you have a city like NYC on the fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 And that picture is Rediculas. NW CT got NO snow.... NYC? #1 storm all-time. That may be the single most insane thing about this storm. Honestly. Insane. That kind of thing happens in Lake Effect areas. Not BECS's. NYC actually missed tying #1 by .1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 NBC30s map is very patriotic. Look at that gradient in New Haven county! Drops almost 10" in just a few miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Insane totals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I think we need to be careful with the post mortem about this storm. No denying the NAM performed pretty well, but I think a lot of people are getting sucked into the QPF. That is one of the most poorly modeled variables, so putting a lot of weight on it is more often than not going to lead you astray. Go back in the forecast thread (maybe even the first one) and you'll see posts about why, despite the QPF the Euro showed, that the banding signal gave plenty of hope to SNE. We're talking around 5 days out. So while the Euro QPF was too far south it's banding was north, and while the NAM QPF was north, it's banding was in line with the Euro. The forecasts weren't as far off as you might think. Mid levels matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.