JC-CT Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I reported my 8" to upton, not sure why it wasn't put up on the board.What time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I think your teams forecast was good but you had huge doubts in here and posted in the first locked model thread that you thought IJD would end up drier and the south coast wetter. I understand how the forecast cycle works out but the signal for a bigger deal in interior CT was showing up. Well - certainly thought that was a possibility. As it turned out south coast was better and BDL was drier. So that part worked out pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 What I learned from this storm were two things: first, that the NAM is a lot better than all of the other models and second, that models always underestimate QPF. What was it you were saying? You have learned important life lessons! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 You have learned important life lessons!It's true though, that will be the takeaway for some weenies. Especially NYC ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Another snowfall fact from past snowstorm: Fishkill, NY (Dutchess County): 0" Lake Carmel (Putnam County): 12"...both towns ~12 miles apart lake carmel with 12" while brewster just 7 miles to the se had 6". I think the trained spotter in Lake Carmel inflated just a bit. What time? I believe around 9pm or so. the edge was practically at my doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I think your teams forecast was good but you had huge doubts in here and posted in the first locked model thread that you thought IJD would end up drier and the south coast wetter. I understand how the forecast cycle works out but the signal for a bigger deal in interior CT was showing up. I was surprised I did as well as I did here. I was thinking the 1.5" at BDL would have happened around here to be honest. So yeah, in that regard I was definitely too bearish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 It's true though, that will be the takeaway for some weenies. Especially NYC ones. This was a good storm to not completely toss the NAM like usual (for some of our theories hashed out earlier)...it came way too far north at one point, but that in itself was a signal for further north for areas like NYC to ABE or so...we never really bought it up here, but it did keep us thinking that perhaps a tick north on other guidance wasn't coming at some point. But yeah, there are some that will definitely start hugging the NAM now, and learn the hard way that you shouldn't do that after a few storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 It's true though, that will be the takeaway for some weenies. Especially NYC ones. Well you know it's coming with the next storms. It could be the 84 hour of the run and all by itself, but you'll hear: "But the NAM was right in late January" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Verification and wrap-up: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 And the Euro might be 1,000 miles OTS but remember how much it sucked with both Juno and the blizzard of 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 As an aside, Ekster and I looked into modeling of that RI subsidence hole last night. Some plots of adiabatic omega. All the models, including a global like the GFS, had some subsidence in the region. All had a consistent wind of around 50 knots at 45 or so degrees at the 850 mb level. RAP NAM GFS Couple that with this sounding from CHH showing a stable layer around 850 mb too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 So like Ekster was saying, some kind of standing wave could set up there. Maybe induced by the Cape, maybe frictional convergence at the South Shore. That would take some extra investigation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I reported my 8" to upton, not sure why it wasn't put up on the board.Are you trained spotter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I was surprised I did as well as I did here. I was thinking the 1.5" at BDL would have happened around here to be honest. So yeah, in that regard I was definitely too bearish.except no one said that..you Debbied overboard as much as the Nam went overboard. Finally inside 36 you both came to your senses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Are you trained spotter? no, but there are plenty of public reports on the final list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 So like Ekster was saying, some kind of standing wave could set up there. Maybe induced by the Cape, maybe frictional convergence at the South Shore. That would take some extra investigation.It was uncanny how radar looked like Morch 2013 storm. One of our all time favorites in SNE. Deep easterly inflow seems to also be a common theme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 So like Ekster was saying, some kind of standing wave could set up there. Maybe induced by the Cape, maybe frictional convergence at the South Shore. That would take some extra investigation. That area even up into western and southwestern Bristol county MA can really suck for snowstorms. But then again, Decemebr 92 had deep E-NE flow and they did well. Maybe the sounding for that storm looked different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I never trust the 4K NAM but in hindsight was there a better 30 hr forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 It was uncanny how radar looked like Morch 2013 storm. One of our all time favorites in SNE. Deep easterly inflow seems to also be a common themeno consistency though. It seems to happen on occasion although last year it did not, of course last night it was after they had a foot in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 That area even up into western and southwestern Bristol county MA can really suck for snowstorms. But then again, Decemebr 92 had deep E-NE flow and they did well. Maybe the sounding for that storm looked different. The Wyoming upper air site is a little wonky tonight, but what sounding information I can get to load shows that flow was more easterly (70o) than northeasterly. That could be something to do with it. Likewise, when Ginx says last night happened after they already had some good snow, the flow was different aloft when it was snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 What terrain there is on the Plymouth County coastline is roughly a 325-145 orientation, which makes 55 degrees perpendicular to that. Also the more NE the wind, the more upslope on the terrain of western RI is minimized. As you get more easterly the flow is nearly perpendicular to that terrain. But a lot will depend on the stability of the inversion aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 4 km NAM was way too high in NW CT on that Ginx map but overall very solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 4 km NAM was way too high in NW CT on that Ginx map but overall very solid.high nw everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 What terrain there is on the Plymouth County coastline is roughly a 325-145 orientation, which makes 55 degrees perpendicular to that. Also the more NE the wind, the more upslope on the terrain of western RI is minimized. As you get more easterly the flow is nearly perpendicular to that terrain. But a lot will depend on the stability of the inversion aloft. Living with the Western RI border a mile away. I can tell you often as in 13 I can hear the wind undulating like its roaring up. Hard to explain but I picture it in my mind like a wet microburst graphic, basically flattens out in RI then rapidly rises on the edges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Living with the Western RI border a mile. I can tell you often as in 13 I can hear the wind undulating like its roaring up. Hard to explain but I picture it in my mind like a wet microburst graphic, basically flattens out in RI then rapidly rises on the edges It's an interesting feature. Maybe Ekster and I co-author something and name it after ourselves. The Ekster-Legro East Greenwich exhaust? South Kingstown sucker hole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 It's an interesting feature. Maybe Ekster and I co-author something and name it after ourselves. The Ekster-Legro East Greenwich exhaust? South Kingstown sucker hole? My friends and I always referred to RI as the cesspool spot in winter. You know that place on the lawn where the snow never accumulated. Now I know why. Septicsemia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Post mortem -- overall I think we did a pretty good job forecasting this one despite a bust low on the western shoreline and the northeast corner. Really glad we didn't bite on the warning amounts to the MA border like NWS and a few TV stations did. http://www.southernconnecticutweather.com/forecasters-discussion/post-mortem-1232016-blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 It's an interesting feature. Maybe Ekster and I co-author something and name it after ourselves. The Ekster-Legro East Greenwich exhaust? South Kingstown sucker hole? The weird thing about the RI hole is that I've been following wx really closely for a long time, and forecasted by myself for nearly a decade, and the only time I remember seeing it was recently. Probably just a coincidence, 3 times starting with the March 2013 storm. I'm not talking dryslots obviously which they can be prone to...anyone in the SE can be prone...but that ugly standing wave look. I simply do not recall seeing it before March 2013 and I've been a sicko who saves so many radar images over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The weird thing about the RI hole is that I've been following wx really closely for a long time, and forecasted by myself for nearly a decade, and the only time I remember seeing it was recently. Probably just a coincidence, 3 times starting with the March 2013 storm. I'm not talking dryslots obviously which they can be prone to...anyone in the SE can be prone...but that ugly standing wave look. I simply do not recall seeing it before March 2013 and I've been a sicko who saves so many radar images over the years. Jan 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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