JC-CT Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Insane totals! Glengary, WVPopulation: 277 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 NYC ended up with more than DC. I bet they didn't see that comin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 In fact I was able to dig up some of the graphics I made. GFS 138 hours out. NAM 6 hours out In the end these two forecasts are very similar, despite the QPF being wildly different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I think we need to be careful with the post mortem about this storm. No denying the NAM performed pretty well, but I think a lot of people are getting sucked into the QPF. That is one of the most poorly modeled variables, so putting a lot of weight on it is more often than not going to lead you astray. Go back in the forecast thread (maybe even the first one) and you'll see posts about why, despite the QPF the Euro showed, that the banding signal gave plenty of hope to SNE. We're talking around 5 days out. So while the Euro QPF was too far south it's banding was north, and while the NAM QPF was north, it's banding was in line with the Euro. The forecasts weren't as far off as you might think. Mid levels matter. Yep. Good post. Look no further to last Feb on 2/15 when the mid levels screamed S+, but QPF was meh. Models will always be better with the mid level feature etc and QPF takes a back seat since it's prone to so man variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 NYC ended up with more than DC. I bet they didn't see that comin'Some folks did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2016 Author Share Posted January 24, 2016 Yea, OceanSt. Agree. There's different ways to look at it and also depends on which weenie backyard is being measured. But from a met standpoint ie model verification, you are correct. I did mention inside 48hrs that the euro was too far se with its qpf distrubtion but prob is right with his mid level evolution. While the nam was picking up on the meso features it was too far north with qpf prinouts. Once again, a blend was the way to go. If that seems like a cop out, oh well...i just think each piece of guidance has its strengths and weaknesses. Sometimes one model may technically scour a coup but I didnt think it happenned with this storm. Although I do believe JMA did pretty well lol. But we know its always hyping up big EC storms and this just happened to fall into its strengths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Ryan "Nam"rahan wrote a scathing blog about the NAM today . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Yea, OceanSt. Agree. There's different ways to look at it and also depends on which weenie backyard is being measured. But from a met standpoint ie model verification, you are correct. I did mention inside 48hrs that the euro was too far se with its qpf distrubtion but prob is right with his mid level evolution. While the nam was picking up on the meso features it was too far north with qpf prinouts. Once again, a blend was the way to go. If that seems like a cop out, oh well...i just think each piece of guidance has its strengths and weaknesses. Sometimes one model may technically scour a coup but I didnt think it happenned with this storm. Although I do believe JMA did pretty well lol. But we know its always hyping up big EC storms and this just happened to fall into its strengths. I don't think that's a cop out. I think that's the way to lead into an event. If you take model QPF verbatim, you'll often get burned on the edges. This is a great event to argue snowfall probabilities. I mean we all knew NYC had a chance for something big, but maybe you don't want to forecast it right away. So maybe you have a 50/50 chance of 18+ or something like that, despite forecasting 8-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 NYC ended up with more than DC. I bet they didn't see that comin' I saw it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 that Norwich number? Yeah - I sort of groaned when I saw it but we actually got 2 reports from Norwich... one of 4" and one of 5" so maybe it's valid. Also, there definitely was a sucker hole from Norwich SW to Westbrook/Old Saybrook. Only about 5" here. Only 6.3" here so 5" (or slightly less) is totally possible NNE in Norwich... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Although I do believe JMA did pretty well lol. But we know its always hyping up big EC storms and this just happened to fall into its strengths. That's news to me. Maybe you are thinking of the gdps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Pictures taken by the Mystic Seaport staff Classic coastal Southern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Pictures taken by the Mystic Seaport staff Classic coastal Southern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 haters gonna hate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Will everyones pack last thru the 40's and 50's Tuesday location dependent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Wasn't around for this one so can't be sure of my total, but an averaging of the reports near me in the PNS, Logan's total, my estimates of the compacted snowpack and my roommates unscientific estimate comes to around 6", so that's what we'll go with. Nice to have everything whitened up and wintry for my return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Ryan "Nam"rahan wrote a scathing blog about the NAM today . I did? I just pointed out that contrary to weenie opinion its QPF forecasts for most of SNE were atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I did? I just pointed out that contrary to weenie opinion its QPF forecasts for most of SNE were atrocious. We only care about jacks. The overall forecast doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I did? I just pointed out that contrary to weenie opinion its QPF forecasts for most of SNE were atrocious. If you tossed qpf.. And looked at just its Banding and fronto.. It was pretty damn good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 We only care about jacks. The overall forecast doesn't matter. There are going to be a lot of disappointed weenies when they lock in the NAM for the next 10 storms and wind up with about 10% of the snow they're expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 If you tossed qpf.. And looked at just its Banding and fronto.. It was pretty damn good It was quite good in the 48-72 time range in showing further north ML centers (which ended up being huge for NJ/E PA/NYC)...verbatim it was too far north though. But the other guidance was too far south...esp the Euro. It was barely getting PHL into the good ML fronto (and QPF on a few runs were even worse...but if you ignore the QPF, it was still barely getting that good zone into Philly). For a few runs there you could say the NAM was 1 part too far north while the Euro was 2 parts too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 It was quite good in the 48-72 time range in showing further north ML centers (which ended up being huge for NJ/E PA/NYC)...verbatim it was too far north though. But the other guidance was too far south...esp the Euro. It was barely getting PHL into the good ML fronto (and QPF on a few runs were even worse...but if you ignore the QPF, it was still barely getting that good zone into Philly). For a few runs there you could say the NAM was 1 part too far north while the Euro was 2 parts too far south. Yeah I think it's fair to say it outperformed the Euro by a fair amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Yeah I think it's fair to say it outperformed the Euro by a fair amount. For here it didn't...but if you look at the entire corridor from PHL to SNE, then I would agree. At least for that period when the Euro was well south...Euro did creep north at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 If you tossed qpf.. And looked at just its Banding and fronto.. It was pretty damn good Considering our forecast from 72 hours out pretty much worked out I'd say we did OK. There was definitely a signal that NYC/LI could get jacked and that the south coast would have to watch. No question about it. Up here I think it was pretty clear from the beginning that that was going to be really tough to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Ji got 36 in Ashburn, Va. Weenie of the year recipient multiple times rewarded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 NYC ended up with more than DC. I bet they didn't see that comin' Actually most of the DC area, including IAD and BWI had more than Central Park. And the suburban numbers were wayyyy higher than NY metro and much more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Considering our forecast from 72 hours out pretty much worked out I'd say we did OK. There was definitely a signal that NYC/LI could get jacked and that the south coast would have to watch. No question about it. Up here I think it was pretty clear from the beginning that that was going to be really tough to do. I think your teams forecast was good but you had huge doubts in here and posted in the first locked model thread that you thought IJD would end up drier and the south coast wetter. I understand how the forecast cycle works out but the signal for a bigger deal in interior CT was showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Another snowfall fact from past snowstorm: Fishkill, NY (Dutchess County): 0" Lake Carmel (Putnam County): 12"...both towns ~12 miles apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 There are going to be a lot of disappointed weenies when they lock in the NAM for the next 10 storms and wind up with about 10% of the snow they're expecting.What I learned from this storm were two things: first, that the NAM is a lot better than all of the other models and second, that models always underestimate QPF.What was it you were saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 I reported my 8" to upton, not sure why it wasn't put up on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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