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January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #2 - No Banter

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We are starting to see more reality in the models. Nearly 100% of the time you will see mixing with bombing lows like this. The all snow solutions along and east of 95 were outside the norm...not that it can't happen but unlikely for such a strong storm with above normal water temps. This thing will be pulling in warm Atlantic water from hundreds of miles out and drawing into the area aloft.

Even still, the clown map from the GFS is an awful lot from DCA-BWI and points east. That's the good news with a more amped up system...yes the likelihood of some mixing if not changeover, maybe a risk of dry slottage for a short period, but a better def band to follow. Wasn't Feb 5-6 2010 similar in that regard?

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Clown map based on the "Kuchera" method.

acckucherasnowma.png

Great map, their numbers are off for some reason. Should be 25+ over Baltimore with color scale same down into VA where that 11.2 is located.

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 hope that  GFS  trend is  wrong   for you  dc folks  if this trend keeps going    you wont see 30-40"  on next run

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Great map, their numbers are off for some reason. Should be 25+ over Baltimore with color scale same down into VA where that 11.2 is located.

 

Yea the map looks right... the numbers looked whack to me.  15 for BWI when the color scale indicates 20+

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Closed H5 in KY this run about 100 miles further north.

So you think maybe the front end snow then sorta light snow/drizzle for couple hours then coastal gets it going?

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 so    the 0z op GFS   for   Saturday morning Jan 23 in central  and eastern   va   will be   SUNNY? [


 

post-9415-0-92099900-1453178044_thumb.pn

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Crazy QPF numbers. Euro was crazy as well but max was S/W of the GFS. I dont know if I have ever seen the globals spit out these kind of QPF numbers before:

 

gfs_apcpn_us_21.png

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GGEM over 2.5" for DCA - BWI all snow

gfs is the warmest model....you do a compromise with the other models and its an all snow event. This has a chance to beat the 1899 amount for DCA which i think was 20 and #2

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So you think maybe the front end snow then sorta light snow/drizzle for couple hours then coastal gets it going?

Possibly, it made up for it later in the run when the low elongated and pulled the precip back to the southwest. Good run verbatim, but less room for error.

 

Edit: Yeah coastal formed further south this run after the primary went further north. Odd.

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Even still, the clown map from the GFS is an awful lot from DCA-BWI and points east. That's the good news with a more amped up system...yes the likelihood of some mixing if not changeover, maybe a risk of dry slottage for a short period, but a better def band to follow. Wasn't Feb 5-6 2010 similar in that regard?

I actually was not here for the 2010 storm.

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Crazy QPF numbers. Euro was crazy as well but max was S/W of the GFS. I dont know if I have ever seen the globals spit out these kind of QPF numbers before:

 

gfs_apcpn_us_21.png

 

 

Really think the outrageous QPF has to do with the elevated water temps off the SE coast and GOM.  All the more enabled by the projected fetch of moisture, which will eventually draw from the Eastern Pacific off of Western coast of Central America.  This is going to be one heck of a moisture plume once it gets cranking after the ULL transfers (and before the transfer too).  Just MHO.

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Oddly the NAM at 84 hrs which is typically useless at that range has a potent surface low very close to the global solutions.

Barring a shift in guidance based on better model handling of the pacific energy...I don't see this heading out to sea or any large track shifts. I do expect to see minor shifts in the mix line and duration.

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 FOLKS  if   you BUY the   0Z  OP gfs    and   you accept  the  r/s line getting into   DC  BWI  then    WHY   are  folks using   15 to 1  snow ratio   whene the ratio is far more likely to be  7  to 1?

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No. The NAM was pumping out 3.5. Never saw it from the GFS, EURO or GEM. There are over 4 inch qpf numbers on that map. Its absolutely nuts.

The models were locked in for days... the NAM and GFS where pumping out over 3 each run.  20-30 inches were common on the snow maps and verified

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FOLKS if you BUY the 0Z OP gfs and you accept the r/s line getting into DC BWI then WHY are folks using 15 to 1 snow ratio whene the ratio is far more likely to be 7 to 1?

Who is using a 15:1? Think most people are going 10:1 given every model shows >2.5" QPF

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FOLKS if you BUY the 0Z OP gfs and you accept the r/s line getting into DC BWI then WHY are folks using 15 to 1 snow ratio whene the ratio is far more likely to be 7 to 1?

10:1 is the standard on the maps. I don't think 15:1 is being posted anywhere.

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 FOLKS  if   you BUY the   0Z  OP gfs    and   you accept  the  r/s line getting into   DC  BWI  then    WHY   are  folks using   15 to 1  snow ratio   whene the ratio is far more likely to be  7  to 1?

Won't the ratio be 7-1 (or less if sleet) only for a short period of time, with average (10:1) ratios at start and above average ratios for the final 12-18 hours with high rates at times..?

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Because it only lasts three hours...

DT has a point. The only chance at even close to 15-1 is when under the deform band. For the entire event you would be best served to assume 10-1 at this point

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  folks are posting 15  to 1 snow ratio   maps

Who is using a 15:1? Think most people are going 10:1 given every model shows >2.5" QPF

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DT has a point. The only chance at even close to 15-1 is when under the deform band. For the entire event you would be best served to assume 10-1 at this point

 

All the maps on IWM/TT/etc use 10:1 ratios or Kuchera...

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Only three 12"+ snowstorms have over 2" liquid in DC. Two are the top two snowstorms. 1922, 1899. Of course Snowmageddon should be in that list too if you believe all the surrounding obs and remember DCA is the worst.  Mar 1958 dropped 3.75" but it was mostly rain.. in the city.

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