CAPE Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CMC snowfall map is obscene...large area of 20+ it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GGEM is a crushjob.. and no mixing for the cities either. (Note: This map is 10:1) ugh split Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 All the maps on IWM/TT/etc use 10:1 ratios or Kuchera... Understood. As long as 10-1 is being used then that is a safe bet (at least for now). So many things point to lower end of ratios (surface temps, possible brief mix, winds) with only the hope of long duration deform band setting up with great rates. Regardless....gonna be a great event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 well I thought it was here bun it was at another location my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Only three 12"+ snowstorms have over 2" liquid in DC. Two are the top two snowstorms. 1922, 1899. Of course Snowmageddon should be in that list too if you believe all the surrounding obs and remember DCA is the worst. Mar 1958 dropped 3.75" but it was mostly rain.. in the city. 1922 is the Knickerbocker(sp) disaster and I think the record for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 For DCA, so far on 0z suite: GFS - 26 inches CMC- 23 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 ugh splitChances of Annapolis getting more than Dca are 0. Dumb Canadians. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Interesting the CMC has the max area identical to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GEFS Mean is awesome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Chances of Annapolis getting more than Dca are 0. Dumb Canadians. Lol Based upon tracking storms for the past few years in this area I would guess this is probably correct. But DCA tends to suck at snow relative to the rest of the area so it might be worth looking into whether or not this is a true statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GEFS Mean colder and southeast....2.5"+ for DC/Alex/PG, and 2"+ for all of DC and Balt metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Interesting the CMC has the max area identical to the GFS.Climo favored spot due to elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GEFS 30"+ for immediate western Burbs of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Only three 12"+ snowstorms have over 2" liquid in DC. Two are the top two snowstorms. 1922, 1899. Of course Snowmageddon should be in that list too if you believe all the surrounding obs and remember DCA is the worst. Mar 1958 dropped 3.75" but it was mostly rain.. in the city. I think PD2 had over 2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GEFS 30"+ for immediate western Burbs of DC How immediate? The ensemble support of this storm is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GEFS Mean is awesome... GEFS Mean colder and southeast....2.5"+ for DC/Alex/PG, and 2"+ for all of DC and Balt metro GEFS 30"+ for immediate western Burbs of DC Those have to be the highest amounts I can ever recall seeing on an ensemble mean this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CMC w/ Kuchera doesn't show the "split"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GEFS Mean colder and southeast....2.5"+ for DC/Alex/PG, and 2"+ for all of DC and Balt metro e7 finally caved... no whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 lol the mean is nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 How immediate? The ensemble support of this storm is amazing. your house is ground zero...seriously... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GEFS 30"+ for immediate western Burbs of DC Wow! Just wow! Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Any clown maps for the mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GGEM ens mean is a beaut too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I've spent more time watching weather models than I care to admit over the last 9 years. I have never seen such a tight cluster for a hecs in our yards at 4 day leads than tonight's gefs. I mean like wow. Holy S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So wiggle wage a little for couple of days and then showtime Get the snowboards out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I've spent more time watching weather models than I care to admit over the last 9 years. I have never seen such a tight cluster for a hecs in our yards at 4 day leads than tonight's gefs. I mean like wow. Holy S We're actually just 3 days out now. Starts around 1am in SW VA Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I've spent more time watching weather models than I care to admit over the last 9 years. I have never seen such a tight cluster for a hecs in our yards at 4 day leads than tonight's gefs. I mean like wow. Holy S It is truly astounding and hard to believe an ensemble can put 30" on us... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Only three 12"+ snowstorms have over 2" liquid in DC. Two are the top two snowstorms. 1922, 1899. Of course Snowmageddon should be in that list too if you believe all the surrounding obs and remember DCA is the worst. Mar 1958 dropped 3.75" but it was mostly rain.. in the city. interesting thanks for that info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If anything, the lesser members (of which there are very few) are more misses to the south and east than north-west. That's a good sign for city folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 We're actually just 3 days out now. Starts around 1am in SW VA Friday. It's a 30 hour storm that goes through massive transformation right over our heads... The obs thread will have numerous "thunder!!!!!!" reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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