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stormtracker

January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #2 - No Banter

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Definite shift back e/se on max on GEFS members since 0z at least. But think we're still seeing stuff mostly bounce around within bounds that have set up. Better to have that kind of shift than north at this point.

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Also should consider we're getting inside range where ens might not be the best tool of bunch.

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Also should consider we're getting inside range where ens might not be the best tool of bunch.

 

I thought it was 72 hrs out we focus more on OP than on ensemble runs

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Also should consider we're getting inside range where ens might not be the best tool of bunch.

Was thinking exactly the same thing when I saw your post.

 

Also, will someone take the time and explain what exactly a "full capture" is.

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Also should consider we're getting inside range where ens might not be the best tool of bunch.

 

Agreed. With this specific event, ops are probably best right now. Which is unusual.

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Definite shift back e/se on max on GEFS members since 0z at least. But think we're still seeing stuff mostly bounce around within bounds that have set up. Better to have that kind of shift than north at this point.

Models can never get the banding right. The up-front slug is pretty well locked it seems.

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Was thinking exactly the same thing when I saw your post.

 

Also, will someone take the time and explain what exactly a "full capture" is.

 

The very simple version is when a closed h5 low sucks the 850 low into it's grip and doesn't let go. That's why many of the runs have a stall for like 12 hours. They join forces as rapid intensification takes place. 

 

6z gfs closed h5 off much later than other runs and the low was able to scoot away to the NE. It was still a big hit but nothing like what we saw with the 12z run. 

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#5, 7, and 11 would put me in a place I may never come back from...but good god man. What a run. 

 

attachicon.gifgefsomg.JPG

Agreed. My only real concern at this point would be what those members are showing. Suppression. Any idea how strong the hp's are on thise 3 members?

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Agreed. My only real concern at this point would be what those members are showing. Suppression. Any idea how strong the hp's are on thise 3 members?

 

About the same in the 1029-30 range. I ran the loops. I'm not worried about what they are showing. 2 of them take the low across the deep south and off the SC coast. Basically no latitude gain. That aint happening. One was just squashed enough but followed the general op ideas. Until we actually see an op move substantially in that direction there is absolutely no fears based on a couple outliers. 

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About the same in the 1029-30 range. I ran the loops. I'm not worried about what they are showing. 2 of them take the low across the deep south and off the SC coast. Basically no latitude gain. That aint happening. One was just squashed enough but followed the general op ideas. Until we actually see an op move substantially in that direction there is absolutely no fears based on a couple outliers.

Thanks Bob!

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can someone tell me how long this event id 30, 40 hours just curious thanks talking dc/ Annapolis

 

I think the model consensus would be starting in DC around 8-10 AM Friday and ending like early Saturday evening? Which is an insane 36+ hours

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Fun with maps. GEFS ens minimum plot shows a 976mb low off the coast.  It's ens #10 in case you want to know how much it dumps...lol

 

 

attachicon.gifgefsensmin.JPG

I'd prefer e13. Pretty sure it would cripple the area for a week.

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Fun with maps. GEFS ens minimum plot shows a 976mb low off the coast.  It's ens #10 in case you want to know how much it dumps...lol

 

 

attachicon.gifgefsensmin.JPG

Those are some tightly packed isobars.  I don't think I want 50 MPH sustained.  I'm too old for those kinda wind chills while I'm shoveling.

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Thinking of flying up to DC for this. Prices are ridiculous. But there are a few options for a late thursday night arrival. When do you think airlines will start cancelling flights across the board?

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Thinking of flying up to DC for this. Prices are ridiculous. But there are a few options for a late thursday night arrival. When do you think airlines will start cancelling flights across the board?

Depends on the airline and if they mind getting their planes stuck here. An airline like Southwest who turns their planes around quicker usually cancels flights closer to the storm than most airlines.

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Models can never get the banding right. The up-front slug is pretty well locked it seems.

That hasn't been my experience.

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