snowman19 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Disagree. Both the CFS and Euro Weeklies show signs of what may be an improving pattern down the road (e.g., decreasing temp departures with barely AN temps). However, once again, d15 progs are not going to show a massive NAO block that may develop in 50 days. What's more, the CFS is flip-flopping. I posted a map from yesterday evening above showing below normal temps on the CFS. This morning's run has flipped. Bec careful not to cherry-pick maps that conform to a preferred viewpoint. A pattern change around mid January is on track regardless of what you see on a d15 ensemble map.Keep studying the stratosphere dude. We are in a westerly QBO, not an easterly, easterly is negative, westerly is positive. Just food for thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 A pattern change around mid January is on track regardless of what you see on a d15 ensemble map. That is highly, highly debatable. I think there's a fundamental reason for caution with the whole SSW=Cold east rhetoric that has been ramping up lately. That is not necessarily the case. 98 is a great cautionary tale for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Pouring here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 how many good winters started out with a +10 december? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 This winter is a bust I mean we can still get some snow obviously but it looks like global warming is really taking over at this point not just here but globally. Look at that map that Anthony posted the jamstec. I feel terrible about it just as everyone else on here but we had two great winters in a row I guess extreme weather is on tap to continue. If it's cold it'll be frozen tundra, if it's warm it's a torch. I'm giving it another month but slowly giving up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 how many good winters started out with a +10 december? Has there ever been a +10 Dec for your area. I don't know of one in Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Has there ever been a +10 Dec for your area. I don't know of one in Raleigh. No +7 is the max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 This winter is a bust I mean we can still get some snow obviously but it looks like global warming is really taking over at this point not just here but globally. Look at that map that Anthony posted the jamstec. I feel terrible about it just as everyone else on here but we had two great winters in a row I guess extreme weather is on tap to continue. If it's cold it'll be frozen tundra, if it's warm it's a torch. I'm giving it another month but slowly giving up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 how many good winters started out with a +10 december? With what I'm assuming your definition of a good winter to be I'd say all of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 how many good winters started out with a +10 december? Last winter started with a sh!t December. Granted a much better one then this year. I don't think anyone on here is predicting a repeat of the cold and snow of last years second half. But a near to slightly above normal second half with plenty of storms will and should produce near to slightly above normal snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 oh man...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 how many good winters started out with a +10 december? Depends what folks are expecting. If we have a +3 for Jan Feb and March and get 40 inches of snow, I don't think many would gripe. On the other hand if there's little snow, then there will be griping-all comes down to the snow in the end, no one cares whether it's +3 or -3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Pouring here .19 already here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 how many good winters started out with a +10 december?The easterly QBO phase we are in will save us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 JAMSTEC just went back to its output from May. Was any of the Dec. inferno data fed into this model, since I see it came out mid-month it could have had knowledge. Anyway, with a +10 Dec., we will have to stay below -5 in Jan/Feb. to end up just normal. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 The easterly QBO phase we are in will save us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 JAMSTEC just went back to its output from May. Was any of the Dec. inferno data fed into this model, since I see it came out mid-month it could have had knowledge. Anyway, with a +10 Dec., we will have to stay below -5 in Jan/Feb. to end up just normal. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Kinda what I was getting at here. I don't think people who look at that JAMSTEC (giving it a shred of credibility) are grasping just how warm this pattern really has been. We're gonna be +8 (and higher) from Baton Rouge to Fargo and eastward to Bangor if these models verify...that's as a monthly average! You'd have to flip to a very long lasting and very cold pattern just to get back to zero. Not to mention that the model is predicting well below normal temps in the Midwest, southern plains and south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Kinda what I was getting at here. I don't think people who look at that JAMSTEC (giving it a shred of credibility) are grasping just how warm this pattern really has been. We're gonna be +8 (and higher) from Baton Rouge to Fargo and eastward to Bangor if these models verify...that's as a monthly average! You'd have to flip to a very long lasting and very cold pattern just to get back to zero. Not to mention that the model is predicting well below normal temps in the Midwest, southern plains and south as well. JAMSTEC is very dry for the great lakes and northeast for that same time period. (Dec-Feb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 JAMSTEC is very dry for the great lakes and northeast for that same time period. (Dec-Feb) That's my absolute worst nightmare. Flip to cold and dry for the try of the winter. That's just awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=search&do=search&andor_type&sid=60ebd712471247ae690b0aef362f6989&search_app_filters%5Bforums%5D%5BsortKey%5D=date&cType=topic&cId=46340&search_term=NEG+Aleutians&search_app=forums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I think he has a crush on me , This will be the biggest BUMP post of my life , Imagine 6 months of crushing the ENSO thread , saying winter starts mid Jan and the EPO will be NEG ( J - M ) for 6 months then the midget comes along and doesn`t even bother to look at the start of this , oh the timing. How dumb is this moron . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 crazy town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Is that you? You missed that he`s a midget reference huh ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 You missed that he`s a midget reference huh ? I know what forky looks like I've met him...and he looks nothing like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I know what forky looks like I've met him...and he looks nothing like that. All trolls are cut from the same cloth . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I noticed the pattern, I made the search. Forky just put a nice cherry on top with the Wendy pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I noticed the pattern, I made the search. Forky just put a nice cherry on top with the Wendy pic. You noticed where I called for an above N December but a NEG EPO in J - M and decided just as the EPO is forecast to go NEG on the weeklies to pull up exactly what I said ? Makes sense . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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