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dmillz25

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sunday's event looked like a possible snowstorm at this range too

 

Totally different world though, that was simply the models rushing the pattern change of the trof coming to the East Coast.  If something follows closely on the heels of this coming system like the 12Z GFS has its gonna be a snow event nearly 100%.

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@antmasiello 25m25 minutes ago

The pattern ahead is nothing like last 2 winters. It's one that features a true -NAO developing and true Nino N Pac circulation.

@antmasiello 1h1 hour ago

Yes this weekend's inland runner is important in terms of transitioning NAO to something mor

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"The pattern ahead is nothing like last 2 winters. It's one that features a true -NAO developing and true Nino N Pac circulation."

 

"1. Don't write off Jan 13-14th wave in SE yet. Yes EPS favors suppression for now. 2. Traditional -NAO being signaled mid month. "
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I still think we have till the beginning of February but growing signs of a true SSW in early February, true strong NAO and AO blocking to start February and I think we go into a cold and snowy pattern for that month. I have no changes in my thoughts for the remainder of January, I think the end of this month goes above normal and below normal snow. Not going to think about March yet, past strong Nino climo argues March isn't good but plenty of time to sort that out...

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I still think we have till the beginning of February but growing signs of a true SSW in early February, true strong NAO and AO blocking to start February and I think we go into a cold and snowy pattern for that month. I have no changes in my thoughts for the remainder of January, I think the end of this month goes above normal and below normal snow. Not going to think about March yet, past strong Nino climo argues March isn't good but plenty of time to sort that out...

Models are showing the blocking start as early as next week. Very strong block on the Euro.

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Models are showing the blocking start as early as next week. Very strong block on the Euro.

that's what's good-this is not day 10 fantasy.  Looks real.   Whether we get to -5 or -6 STD remains to be seen IMO but we may not want that strong of a block locally-remember 09-10 and how most of it stayed south of NYC

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that's what's good-this is not day 10 fantasy.  Looks real.   Whether we get to -5 or -6 STD remains to be seen IMO but we may not want that strong of a block locally-remember 09-10 and how most of it stayed south of NYC

good winter but could have been great

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I still think we have till the beginning of February but growing signs of a true SSW in early February, true strong NAO and AO blocking to start February and I think we go into a cold and snowy pattern for that month. I have no changes in my thoughts for the remainder of January, I think the end of this month goes above normal and below normal snow. Not going to think about March yet, past strong Nino climo argues March isn't good but plenty of time to sort that out...

 

Noted. I'll let someone else check if this is your first forecast for the month.

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