Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 In mid Jan a week of - 3 to -5 is cold enough , and if there is any cover post Jan 17 you keep any warm up muted . There may be multiple chances in this pattern . This is by no means a 1 and done pattern once past mid month I'd agree. Even the great pattern of 09-10 in the Mid Atl did not have air that was all that cold-cold enough works. Fingers crossed for some storms...with the Sub trop jet we should be in business at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'd agree. Even the great pattern of 09-10 in the Mid Atl did not have air that was all that cold-cold enough works. Fingers crossed for some storms...with the Sub trop jet we should be in business at some point. I believe blizzard warnings may have been up for 2/10/10 but it was 32-33 the whole time with heavy wet snow falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'd agree. Even the great pattern of 09-10 in the Mid Atl did not have air that was all that cold-cold enough works. Fingers crossed for some storms...with the Sub trop jet we should be in business at some point. Exactly. I rather take my Chances with slightly below normal temps than true arctic air which risks suppression city. The pattern doesn't favor any cutters in the long range as long as that block is forecasted correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Exactly. I rather take my Chances with slightly below normal temps than true arctic air which risks suppression city. The pattern doesn't favor any cutters in the long range as long as that block is forecasted correctly. Agree...the last thing we want is something like March 2014....cold and dry for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Awful 06z gfs op run. It wants to cut every system resulting in rain and mild. Yeah that ain't happening if that pattern was in place. The models as much as they will show coastals in the long range in a hostile pattern will show cutters in a favorable pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Goose since its banter what are your thoughts about the upcoming pattern. All the indices are there will we be rejoicing or talking about what could have been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Goose since its banter what are your thoughts about the upcoming pattern. All the indices are there will we be rejoicing or talking about what could have been I've been holding onto the later idea as a whole for awhile I had said 1/10 or 1/15 here and not til possibly 1/20-1/25 for the MA and southern states. It still looks like later is going to better, we still could see something sneak up on Jan 13 or 14 for sure but I think we get a measureable significant snow here sometime between 1/18 and 1/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Great post by Superstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 2001-2002? It was a figment of speech describing how bad December was, clearly not saying this looks like an 01-02 pattern, sigh, sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Nice freudian slip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Nice freudian slipYea you got me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 It was a figment of speech describing how bad December was, clearly not saying this looks like an 01-02 pattern, sigh, sigh... phrases like 01-02, 11-12, Juno, March 2001, 97-98 should only be uttered here at one's own risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 phrases like 01-02, 11-12, Juno, March 2001, 97-98 should only be uttered here at one's own risk Other the "Juno" none are at all relevant!!!! We already crushed 97-98s lowest temp. 01-02 was a nationwide torch extravaganza. March 2001 a model bust. And 11-12 had less blocking in an entire winter then we will see this month alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 AO-/NAO-/PNA+ and still record highs for the Northeast. NYC might hit 60 on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 AO-/NAO-/PNA+ and still record highs for the Northeast. NYC might hit 60 on Sunday. Right off the bat that's wrong from coastal areas. While not super cold offshore water temps have cooled sufficiently to mute any super warm temps in an onshore flow. Also this is a cutter which by its very nature brings its own warm air so it's not part of the larger pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Right off the bat that's wrong from coastal areas. While not super cold offshore water temps have cooled sufficiently to mute any super warm temps in an onshore flow. Also this is a cutter which by its very nature brings its own warm air so it's not part of the larger pattern Okay, here's the "cold front" behind the clipper. It's pretty mild for most of the region. This is January. It's supposed to be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Right off the bat that's wrong from coastal areas. While not super cold offshore water temps have cooled sufficiently to mute any super warm temps in an onshore flow. Also this is a cutter which by its very nature brings its own warm air so it's not part of the larger pattern The sea temp in the New York Bight is still 50 degrees. The Battery is 45 degrees. It's still pretty warm out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 0.9"1.2" on the GFS. I don't know how you get your numbers. LOL, been happening for years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 AO-/NAO-/PNA+ and still record highs for the Northeast. NYC might hit 60 on Sunday. MOS has 51 for KNYC at that time (50 for both JFK and LGA) that's very impressive for so early in the morning but it might not rise all that much after that. It would be cool to hit 62 or so though, if we torch anyways we should at least make it count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 AO-/NAO-/PNA+ and still record highs for the Northeast. NYC might hit 60 on Sunday. you trolling? This is due to a cutter an lasts 2 days.. The pattern going forward looks awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 SREF Plume is just over 1" by Sunday PM, with possibly a little more to go, outside the 84hr. range. More importantly, and sadly, the 12ZGFS had no snow till Jan. 22, which must be the fourth in a series of possiblities/failures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 SREF Plume is just over 1" by Sunday PM, with possibly a little more to go, outside the 84hr. range. More importantly, and sadly, the 12ZGFS had no snow till Jan. 22, which must be the fourth in a series of possiblities/failures. you are basing that off an OP run of the GFS? Jesus...look at the pattern dude. Stop using an OP model beyond 4-5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 you are basing that off an OP run of the GFS? Jesus...look at the pattern dude. Stop using an OP model beyond 4-5 days agree - 120 hour rule is in effect until further notice - GFS OP should be 72 hours IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 agree - 120 hour rule is in effect until further notice - GFS OP should be 72 hours IMO the storm this weekend could change future runs depending on its strength and position. etc etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 agree - 120 hour rule is in effect until further notice - GFS OP should be 72 hours IMOThe GGEM now has a storm at the benchmark-ish at 144 (stupid tilted map) if it still shows it in exactly 24 hours, I'm buying a tiny shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 you are basing that off an OP run of the GFS? Jesus...look at the pattern dude. Stop using an OP model beyond 4-5 daysHe's a troll. He posts what ever best fits his "warm and snowless" agenda. PB has been schooling him so far this month.No way in hell we go snowless till the 22nd in the coming pattern. Quote me on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Can we do a separate model thread like sne? So yanksfan can go into detail of day 10 surface maps and talk about how much rain he is getting? That's a pattern thread that he is posting in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Can we do a separate model thread like sne? So yanksfan can go into detail of day 10 surface maps and talk about how much rain he is getting? That's a pattern thread that he is posting in I agree 100000000% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 You really can't help yourself but to push my buttons. I'm not trying to aggravate you but it would help overall discussion in the pattern thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'm not trying to aggravate you but it would help overall discussion in the pattern thread If you weren't trying to aggravate me then you would stop referring to me as Yanksfan, which hasn't been my screen name for over 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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