forkyfork Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Come now Unc, you and I have been around these parts a long time.....we've seen these kinda winters, hand over your heart what do you really think will happen this year? I think from late January to early April yield at east 20" of snow...21" was my call when this season started...these are the recent el nino winters with snowfall up to January 15th and snowfall after that... season...Jan 15th...After...total 1963-64......24.0"......20.7"......44.7" 1965-66.........T.........21.4"......21.4" 1968-69........8.0"......22.2"......30.2" 1969-70......11.7"......13.9"......25.6" 1972-73.........T...........2.8"........2.8" 1976-77......15.5"........9.0"......24.5" 1977-78........5.6"......45.1"......50.7" 1979-80........5.5"........7.3"......12.8" 1982-83........4.0"......23.2"......27.2" 1986-87........1.1"......22.0"......23.1" 1987-88......14.9"........4.2"......19.1" 1991-92........0.7"......11.9"......12.6" 1992-93........1.9"......22.6"......24.5" 1994-95........0.2"......11.6"......11.8" 1997-98.........T...........5.5"........5.5" 2002-03......12.6"......36.7"......49.3" 2004-05........3.0"......38.0"......41.0" 2006-07..........T........12.4"......12.4" 2009-10......13.2"......38.2"......51.4" 2014-15........3.2"......47.1"......50.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Forky, when you make good points, you make good points. What do you think? Is it comparable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 When trying to figure out winds, on computer models, you use lower dynamics? If so, at which level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 If geps temps pan out, northern Florida could probably see temperatures 30's and 40's, closer to Disney World, 40's and 50's. During our next cold blast I should add Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 It's bad when you have to post a 282hr ensemble scraper. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 It's bad when you have to post a 282hr ensemble scraper. Jeez. and you forgot to mention it is completely useless...........anyhing past 5 days in this pattern is useless IMO......models have a difficult time in this type of setup - even the favorable major indices are misleading if the players end up in the wrong positions at the wrong time http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Forky, when you make good points, you make good points. What do you think? Is it comparable? i want to see a legit -nao, not this bootleg displaced strong pv pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Wow gfs for the 13. Close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Wow gfs for the 13. Close. Wow gfs for the 13. Close. you need to post images or a link now with an explanation ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Wow gfs for the 13. Close.It still has some light snow for our area, it's 160 hours out so it's in fantasy range but it's still cool to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Wow gfs for the 13. Close. I've seen something I'm pretty sure around that time a few runs but haven't said anything, I thought I saw something on other models to bit nothing really hitting... Can't remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 you need to post images now with an explanation .........In the Banter thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 you need to post images now with an explanation ......... My phone will not upload photos lol. Just missed a big snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 sunday's event looked like a possible snowstorm at this range too Agree. And the verification is a 60 degree cutter. Silly to post stuff 10 days out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Crap mines only loaded to hour 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Sunday's cutter is stronger on the GFS-still more like a cold front with a lot of rain, but it's gone towards the rainier Euro solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 There Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 In the Banter thread? yes go back to post # 3173 - where I asked BX about that http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47333-met-winter-banter/page-91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Something like the GFS with all these s/w running around is what we talked about earlier this week. It can just pop up as it's hard to forecast at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Only recent map that was loaded, but the gefs only other that shows any sort of storm 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Storm for 13th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 the nj.com click bait is out in full force I see: http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/01/enjoy_the_next_few_days_nj_because_winter_is_coming_with_a_vengeance.html#incart_2box_nj-homepage-featured Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Using my ignore the model details past 120 hours - I say this solution will be completely different on future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Using my ignore the model details past 120 hours - I say this solution will be completely different on future runs Of course I agree1000000%, though it has been hinting at this for a few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Poor timing on the GFS prevented a better outcome, late phase causes a big blow up once past us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Hey, we have something not in clown range on a single model run of a single model showing 2 inches in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Poor timing on the GFS prevented a better outcome, late phase causes a big blow up once past us 973 on later frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Poor timing on the GFS prevented a better outcome, late phase causes a big blow up once past us its a start. Hopefully this phases a bit earlier and just a tad more west and we have a storm on our hands. The models have sucked lately so you never know but I'm rooting for it of course as is everyone else on here. We really need a monster storm. Can anyone tell me if this is a fast mover or there's some blocking involved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 December 31st, first if any hints about January 13... Comparing all previous models for Wednesday the 13, it would show up,as of January, on the 12z,and18z runs,but would vanish on 00z,and 06z... But starting today, 06z and 12z show it. Just interesting observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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