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HillsdaleMIWeather

2015/16 Autumn/Winter Banter, Complaint, Whining Thread

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Josh, I'll start by saying that this TORCH pattern will end sometime and we will return to near-climo conditions, which will produce some snow.

 

However, you keep saying that models are showing a flip in January. This is the same guy who beats on the pulpit that the models can't be trusted long range.

 

You know as well as I that they sometimes continually show a flip in the 10-day-and-out range, only to keep pushing it back.  When it gets within day 4, I'll buy it. In the meantime, I'll just make the best out of this anomalously warm winter.

:huh: I keep saying the models are showing a flip in January? :huh: I have several times repeated something I read in the NE forum that spoke of a better second half of winter, the other day I mentioned for the first time in forever the ensembles have a cold look in the long range, but when have I kept saying the "models" show a "flip" in January?

 

I always say OP runs are not to be trusted in the long range. Ensembles certainly arent the end all either, but are much better for long term trends. A few weeks ago, in its typical erratic fashion, a run of the GFS showed an arctic blast at the end of the run, someone posted about it, and 3 or 4 others were quick to jump on them about how the ensembles do not show this.

 

Well, the ensembles have a MUCH colder look to them for New Years and beyond, and there have been several posts from others about the pattern breaking down some. So, yes, my question to Jon (who uses LR models) was how does it "look awful" after Jan 1st? A gut feeling? A little bird said something? Whether this much colder look pans out or not is another story, but from what information we have it looks better, not worse.

 

And whats more...we dont need negative anomalies to get good winter weather...and the north country, unusually devoid of snow at the moment, needs them even less. Get us out of the TORCH pattern and Ill take chances, several degrees above or below normal. Super torch or super cold and you can forget about a good snowstorm pattern, but a -5F to +5F pattern would be fine. A pattern with highs in the 30s (even above freezing) is a huge improvement.

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just read something interesting in the NE forum. The projected high for Boston on xmas eve (72 degrees), would tie their high on July 4th of this year. :lol:

that is pretty cool

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Except for the fact that December 2014 was practically a carbon copy of December 2015 (warm and snowless), aside from not being nearly as rainy.

 

And yet, that was all but forgotten by the time we reached March 2015... :lol:

I was speaking more for my locale, but yes after checking the data we did have a pretty ****&y December last year exempt it was much cooler than this December so far. Snowfall was a little better as well, but biggest difference from this year to last year was the awesome early season LES we had in November. 

post-6645-0-83727900-1450878045_thumb.jp

post-6645-0-81350400-1450878055_thumb.jp

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I'm all aboard the futility train at this point. Let's see how long we can go with a season total in the single digits.

 

 

ORD might have 20" before the new year

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It's our annual shift from warmth to cold and people are complaining about suppression of the storm track.

Meanwhile, places that average lots of snow will get..... Lots of snow!

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This horrific torch pattern is on the way out. Even if the storm regime doesn't cooperate, just to feel some winter air for more than a few days will be wonderful. When it's cold, can always count on our great lakes climate for some snow and disturbances even if the pattern itself isn't the best.

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This horrific torch pattern is on the way out. Even if the storm regime doesn't cooperate, just to feel some winter air for more than a few days will be wonderful. When it's cold, can always count on our great lakes climate for some snow and disturbances even if the pattern itself isn't the best.

Upper 30s and low 40s, can't wait....

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Upper 30s and low 40s, can't wait....

 

If that was my attitude, I'd move. The vast majority of the US population centers are in warmer areas. There is no reason to be depressed by normal weather, upper 20's that is.

 

I don't see you on this site during the warmer months, so I don't know what you are looking for.

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Can't believe I'm getting a second big sleet storm in less than 5 years. 

Pinger magnet lol.  Looking forward to the next week of highs around 30 and lows around 20...... and nothing else  :weep:

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No complaints. In an El Niño year I had one of the earliest snowstorms ever, and now a quality 2 inch sleet storm. Not sure I ever experienced one of those. The last 7 or so years in Chicago area has been quality for winter weather lovers. I expect a long dry cold period. A 10 inch wet snow on about February 1. And then a cold wet spring.

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I've experienced 2 major sleet storms (over 2") here in cmh.  One was feb'07, (which was a busted snow storm), the other, more memorable, was Feb 1994, (i think that was the date), but 90% of that event took place with temps around 16 degrees.  Towards the end it warmed very quickly and it eventually turned to freezing rain, then thunderstorms, then back quickly to freezing rain....then it flash froze and stayed frigid for the week after and everything was a glacier.  

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I've experienced 2 major sleet storms (over 2") here in cmh.  One was feb'07, (which was a busted snow storm), the other, more memorable, was Feb 1994, (i think that was the date), but 90% of that event took place with temps around 16 degrees.  Towards the end it warmed very quickly and it eventually turned to freezing rain, then thunderstorms, then back quickly to freezing rain....then it flash froze and stayed frigid for the week after and everything was a glacier.  

 

93-94 was the last time i saw this much sleet ( around 2 inches ) as i got earlier here. Was similar back east with what you had except it never went above freezing and so it may have been a different system? That one started with sleet and temps in the single digits and then went to freezing rain in the teens. At the time it was the greatest *natural* disaster for the state of Delaware as whole forests were wiped out. Some were without power for 2+ months. Our power was all underground thankfully so only lost it briefly.

 

I have power lines surrounding this house ( south and east side ) so yeah i'll take sleet any day over freezing rain!

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Two unique winter storms in an strong el Niño winter. Can't complain. It was really cool having lightning and thunder while it was sleeting heavily. It was a Slunderstorm! :lmao:

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The first week of January looks bleak and after that, zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 

 

 

 

 

February's gonna rock.

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February's gonna rock.

 

without a measurable snow in the books yet and getting ready to destroy the old record for latest.   I'm putting CMH's chances at 50/50 that April is our greatest snowfall month this winter.   You heard it here first:  slushaggedon 2016

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I recall 2 other times seeing a "significant" amount of sleet (significant as in 1/4" or greater).

 

One of those times actually featured surprise Thundersleet. 

 

Never saw amounts that were greater than 1" though.

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That temperature map in particular will bust. Might side with slightly drier than normal, but probably not really dry.

Edit: I think the warm anomalies will stay up closer to the Canadian border and over towards northern New England.

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What's your reasoning?

 

Well, the first 2 weeks of the month don't support that.. plus, they trend colder in the later periods. It could be above normal, sure. I don't think it will be anywhere as close to above normal as that shows.

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