powderfreak Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Huh? BOX said it was way too aggressive and that the GFS was likely right. None said anything about hills It was. He sounded disappointed.Haha I know it was for him. It was funny of all the posters here you mention "hilltowns" and he knows it's for him. Anyway, looks cool next week...good signal for some slightly below normal weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 man that looks like a wild month .... wild flashes to warmth while the apparent cold bias/relative to the Globe is building and sagging. Meanwhile, the GEFs are Sandy reduxing Definitely a storm brewing in the western Caribbean post 240, we get that most years but the last 2 have been exceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Torch early next week. 75-80 maybe Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Torch early next week. 75-80 maybe Tuesday? I'm thinking mid 70's torch spots. We'll see. Euro is darn chilly in NNE on Friday and just south with the coastal this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 I'm thinking mid 70's torch spots. We'll see. Euro is darn chilly in NNE on Friday and just south with the coastal this weekend. Hope it cold down after the torch. Seems like it's short lived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Definitely a storm brewing in the western Caribbean post 240, we get that most years but the last 2 have been exceptions. The main cycle runs seem to be focusing more on the Southwestern Bahamas or Southeast Florida in about two weeks while the off hour runs are more towards the Gulf. Either one of those scenarios would be good for tropical weenie enthusiasts. Of course we need it to actually develop first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Torch early next week. 75-80 maybe Tuesday? Go ten degrees higher. Much more exciting if it were 85 - 90 with 70F dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 6, 2015 Author Share Posted October 6, 2015 The main cycle runs seem to be focusing more on the Southwestern Bahamas or Southeast Florida in about two weeks while the off hour runs are more towards the Gulf. Either one of those scenarios would be good for tropical weenie enthusiasts. Of course we need it to actually develop first. I often wonder at this time of year if these globals have climo tainting built into them. Supposedly...not, and they are free to physically process post input grids pushed forward through time. But it just seems every mid Autumn that fantasy range GFS has that western Caribbean TC like that. It seems the climatology proves that "home grown" TCs favor that region... so to, the Gulf and book-end spinners near Florida and so forth. It would be interesting if there 'isn't' said tainting, because if these autumn modeling tendencies are all emerging from pure physic out in time ... logically that would impose the notion that the models, although more often wrong at those ranges, must gather SOME semblance of legitimacy. Flight is impossible... the World is flat ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 I often wonder at this time of year if these globals have climo tainting built into them. Supposedly...not, and they are free to physically process post input grids pushed forward through time. But it just seems every mid Autumn that fantasy range GFS has that western Caribbean TC like that. It seems the climatology proves that "home grown" TCs favor that region... so to, the Gulf and book-end spinners near Florida and so forth. It would be interesting if there 'isn't' said tainting, because if these autumn modeling tendencies are all emerging from pure physic out in time ... logically that would impose the notion that the models, although more often wrong at those ranges, must gather SOME semblance of legitimacy. Flight is impossible... the World is flat ... Pigs can't fly. Models have climo built into them in a way, given that they take into account the changing wavelengths as the sun angle lowers. They may even take into account changing vegetation within the parameterizations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Now Monday and Tuesday look like 75-80 typical spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 I often wonder at this time of year if these globals have climo tainting built into them. Supposedly...not, and they are free to physically process post input grids pushed forward through time. But it just seems every mid Autumn that fantasy range GFS has that western Caribbean TC like that. It seems the climatology proves that "home grown" TCs favor that region... so to, the Gulf and book-end spinners near Florida and so forth. It would be interesting if there 'isn't' said tainting, because if these autumn modeling tendencies are all emerging from pure physic out in time ... logically that would impose the notion that the models, although more often wrong at those ranges, must gather SOME semblance of legitimacy. Flight is impossible... the World is flat ... Think about all the advances in modeling over even the past five to ten years. The extended range GFS can be good to pick up potential pattern changes or regimes. One thing the operational has been insisting on is that in roughly 10 days, tropical cyclonegenisis will occur somewhere off the Central American coast, most likely near Belize. At the same time, there are indications of a deep long wave trough building into the East, which should help pull the system North. Regardless of correctness, the OP and ensembles have shown some incredible run to run consistency for the past 6 cycles now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Now Monday and Tuesday look like 75-80 typical spotsI might play hookey next Tuesday and head to the beach. Should be 75-80 right to the coast on strong WSW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Looks like the pattern change to trough in the east is dead. El Niño ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Looks like the pattern change to trough in the east is dead. El Niño ftlI haven't been looking at much the past week, but the EPS looks troughy in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 In the fall I am definitely a pluviophile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 In the fall I am definitely a pluviophile Are you a registered pluviophile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Are you a registered pluviophile?yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I haven't been looking at much the past week, but the EPS looks troughy in the east. Last nights run was pretty cold in the LR as well. Pretty classic "winter October" pattern actually. We will see if that continues to develop as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Let's just get thru early week torch and hope things continue trending cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Not sure about cold, but certainly a pattern to offer cool shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 The GEPS ensembles look nice and toasty moving towards mid-month. Exactly what Kevin was hoping for. Nothing like seasons in seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 7, 2015 Author Share Posted October 7, 2015 I feel pretty strongly at this point that if October finds its way to a "Cool/cold wild, stormy" characteristic, the title of this thread would be complete and utter dumb luck. The reasons set out are no longer really in play; the +PNA component of that discourse certainly is ... but it's morphed all over the place in spatial-temporal arrangement ... meanwhile, the N Pac is not really looking very AA any longer, so a goodly portion of the weight of those discussion points are no longer valid. Such is life with seasonal/long lead philosophies during the crazy stochastic time of the year. But, ...in my own (shameless) defense, I was clear that confidence was not/never high due to that former realization. So ...meh, ... the month looks banal yet again. Or perhaps we just keep yo-yoing on a weekly periodicity between whole-scale suggestions of volatility... followed by quiescent non-eventful ones. Back and forth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 In the fall I am definitely a pluviophile I'm a full-blown pluviophile in every season except winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Looks like temps could torch up to around 70 here on Monday-Tuesday with dews in the low 50's on Tuesday.... Of course, it might not quite reach those astounding and record breaking numbers, but still, they might. Can even imagine 72F as an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 The 12z GFS has some NNE snow potential 10/16-10/17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Maybe a few rotten branches will come down on Friday in Tolland County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Maybe a few rotten branches will come down on Friday in Tolland County? namNE_con_mucape_057.gif You can take the boy of of Tolland Country..but you can't take the Tolland County out of the boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Sneaky severe threat Friday afternoon. Worth watching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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