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Summer Doldrums Banter


Baroclinic Zone

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I wonder if ORH will touch 90 today or tomorrow ? 

 

If so, it would be the first time in two years.   

 

*it was 86 there as of the 2 pm(1:53) ob, so if they popped 88 on the next ... the probability goes up they do it on a tweener.  

 

We'll see, but the chances go up even more for tomorrow.  Most places should have a bit of a higher launch pad in the morning. Though DPs are not appreciably high .. the wind being up and SNE finally being actually IN a continental warm conveyor should keep things rather tepid during the overnight.  Particularly in the downtown urban places.  Rural fields and open roads may get into the 60s but I think with breeze being up the decoupling is harder to do in this sort of pattern.

 

Euro continues with 19 or so C collocated on the temporal heating times of tomorrow, with nil cloud and high launch pad in place? Has that 10 F in the first hour type of rise appeal to it.  Then you do lurch 6, 6, 4, 3 then bounce around 96 at lower air fields to 89 at ORH and it'd be close.    

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Definite cooler look to the euro today...pops that west coast ridge.

sea-sawing large scale mass fields every couple of runs or so... 

 

Probably more a sign that autumn is stressing summer in the runs.  No matter what the Euro tries, ..October will inevitably arrive. Although, jeez - the way the climate's been so wack as of late, ...last year was October until about Jan 15...then it was SIBERIAN!

 

I like how every run incrementally showing the expansion of the sub-0 C 850 region up N.  

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A bit of an overachiever here as far as the heat goes since PSF reached 88° F, the hottest of the summer so far. Forecast was 85° F. This warm, well mixed Sonoran air will likely overachieve tomorrow too in many spots. I expect a > 50% chance that PSF reaches or breaks 90° F for the first time since 9/11/13 and many of the torch spots like CEF and BDL will be 95-96° F. 

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A bit of an overachiever here as far as the heat goes since PSF reached 88° F, the hottest of the summer so far. Forecast was 85° F. This warm, well mixed Sonoran air will likely overachieve tomorrow too in many spots. I expect a > 50% chance that PSF reaches or breaks 90° F for the first time since 9/11/13 and many of the torch spots like CEF and BDL will be 95-96° F. 

 

Zactly what I'm stinkin' too - 

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85 for MPM tomorrow ?

 

He didn't hit it today? 

 

Ashfield, MA at 1,000ft hit 88F, though Ashfield at 1,300ft was 84F...Shelburne Falls, MA at 1,100ft hit 87F and those stations look close to him.  I'd toss the 88F at Plainfield, MA at 1,700ft as that seems high. 

 

Heck it hit 76F at 4,000ft at MMNV1 up here...which is why 750ft at MVL hit 91 (the classic adiabatic lapse rates of take 4,000ft temp and add 15 degrees for 750-1,000ft).  Its 83F even at 2,000ft.

 

But say 875mb temperatures were a little cooler down there today, even low 70s at 4,000ft should yield upper 80s at 1,000ft given the well mixed airmass today.

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oh .. Well you've posted you are on top of a hill with ripping NE winds and more snow so I was just curious

More snow? Don't recall that. I am 2 miles or a bit more from ocean and begin the rise in elevation just inland so there is nothing to my northeast to block wind. Why wouldn't a little elevation make it windy?

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I live here and I am fully aware of local terrain effects. I don't diwnslope like the valley does. It still snows here on NE winds. See Dec 92

 

You still are 100-200' lower than the average elevation to your northeast.  Even I-84 at Union is at 1000' and the hills are 2-300' higher around it.  I agree that it's not the 8-900' to the valley floor but it is a downslope direction - that's a fact.

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