Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 So the NAM knocks out the rest of my hair with a day long pellet fest and warning snows north of the state border and the GFS has some minor sprinkles and glazing..Pretty important Euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 I should know this ... but I don't... heh. If Logan gets like 1.5" of sleet, does that count toward the total ? I asked this awhile back and was told it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 I thought the .65 qpf and the soundings looked much better than before and the trend towards a NAM RGEM scenario important I see more like 0.20-0.25" of QPF during the critical periods where the atmosphere supports frozen...and it's marginal ice mostly, with perhaps 3-4 hours of pellets south of the NH border. You have to subtract the stuff that falls today from the total through 48 hours. I do agree it trended a bit toward the NAM/RGEM but it is still extremely different at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Yeah but those are pretty easter egg colors ... dumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Yes, sleet/ice pellets count toward snow totals. Thought so... Damn... I know it's petty and meaningless, but some part of me really does want that 10" capper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 A shift south would be nice hate being on the line with these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 GGEM is def on the NAM/RGEM train. Really bullish on QPF for tomorrow. Cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 12z BTV WRF may not be as bullish as RGEM, but definitely snow and sleet to Boston. Maybe even a bit more bullish compared to 6z. Euro will definitely be important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 lol, PF and i were mentioned a couple days back about checking back in, Looks contagious.....ASOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 I'm intrigued by the Thursday morning commute impact with possible sleet and freezing rain in my location. Marginal temps around 32 here but could be more like 29 or 30 in the outlying high terrain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 1"+ QPF ON THE GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 lol, PF and i were mentioned a couple days back about checking back in, Looks contagious.....ASOUT Those who looked at this objectively for days aren't too surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 I'm intrigued by the Thursday morning commute impact with possible sleet and freezing rain in my location. Marginal temps around 32 here but could be more like 29 or 30 in the outlying high terrain . The setup is very similar to the ORH ice storm of 2008..with constant cold and lower Dewpoint air funneling in on stiff NE winds..If we can get most of this to fall after dark..it might be a very fun night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Those who looked at this objectively for days aren't too surprised. There were not many that did though, I kind of been watching off and on, But getting snow in april just to be gone in a day or two does nothing for myself, But that's just me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 anticlimatic so far but im holding out hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 The setup is very similar to the ORH ice storm of 2008..with constant cold and lower Dewpoint air funneling in on stiff NE winds..If we can get most of this to fall after dark..it might be a very fun night That is the only similarity. Funneling of lower dews. The rest of the setup is nothing like that storm. Nobody is getting 1-2 inches of ice, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 The setup is very similar to the ORH ice storm of 2008..with constant cold and lower Dewpoint air funneling in on stiff NE winds..If we can get most of this to fall after dark..it might be a very fun night You mean the Dec ice storm? Very similar? Good luck and stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 You mean the Dec ice storm? Very similar? Good luck and stay safe.Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Weenie maps... RGEM... GGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Yes The only similarity I could see is a NE boundary layer wind direction. Aside from that it's like comparing this to the Blizz of 1993 because in both cases there will have been clouds in the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Weenie maps... RGEM... image.jpg GGEM... image.jpg RGEM is probably a little too enthusiastic, lol...but I could see a GGEM solution with advisory snows verify roughly pike-northward. The one notable thing about the RGEM is that all of it is inside of 36 hours pretty much, which is where it performs well, so I'll keep a close eye on the 18z and 00z runs...if it holds firm, then we may have a pretty wild situation on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 There were not many that did though, I kind of been watching off and on, But getting snow in april just to be gone in a day or two does nothing for myself, But that's just me Only if it's like 1996 or 2007, or better yet 1982, does April snow have real meaning. Not in the cards for this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Bitter pill for Ray to swallow if he gets a storm that leaves him 1.5" from his personal record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Bitter pill for Ray to swallow if he gets a storm that leaves him 1.5" from his personal record?Its quite possible he sees 6-10 from this. Wonder if he'd post or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 EC is a little snowier for RT 2 to the Mondads it seems. Maybe slightly cooler near pike? Could be just noise at this point, but looks rather snowy Rt 2 area for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 EC is a little snowier for RT 2 to the Mondads it seems. Maybe slightly cooler near pike? Could be just noise at this point, but looks rather snowy Rt 2 area for sure. A bit north with the best slug of precip vs RGEM/NAM...and a bit later on timing...more like 18z-06z versus anything in the morning. But that could be a pretty nice burst of snow around 00z-03z in the Rt 2 corridor. It's damned cold too in the BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Also a bit cooler near 925 which may introduce some IP issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 A bit north with the best slug of precip vs RGEM/NAM...and a bit later on timing...more like 18z-06z versus anything in the morning. But that could be a pretty nice burst of snow around 00z-03z in the Rt 2 corridor. It's damned cold too in the BL. Yeah it was juicier into SW Nh compared to 00z and also a little more robust with QPF after 18z tomorrow as compared to the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Yeah it was juicier into SW Nh compared to 00z and also a little more robust with QPF after 18z tomorrow as compared to the 00z run. Given the EC rarely likes to make big jumps in one run, that was about as good as a trend as you could expect for juicier QPF. 18z and 00z runs should be interesting. First time I've really looked forward to another model cycle in a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Given the EC rarely likes to make big jumps in one run, that was about as good as a trend as you could expect for juicier QPF. 18z and 00z runs should be interesting. First time I've really looked forward to another model cycle in a couple weeks. Yep. I know some checked out of winter and brushed it off the table when we spoke about how some of the models were interesting last week and over the weekend...but here we are. Sometimes mother nature does not care about time of year, nor have emotions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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