Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Spring Banter - Pushing up Tulips


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

May is one of those months that can be feast or famine it seems like. You still can get cutoffs and with a warmer source region.....ample amounts of moisture. Or, it can be fairly benign with blocky flow helping to keep it dry.

I figured with this blocking we'd end up dry for awhile.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 6.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Beautiful aftn.

 

I'm surprised, really ... just knowing the synopsis, with that -NAO and pinned gyre just ENE of NE ...I had everyday more like yesterday until Thursday...  Bonus!

 

I feel pretty sure that coastal stays off shore...err, barely.. might clip the Cape.  But it will probably just be breezy with high hot sun and cirrus on the SE horizon for much of the area.  Might even make climo highs back west of the direct marine.  

 

But yeah.. typcial low grade MOS bust - classic high late April insolation off-set right now.  It seems if this happens all the time the MOS should be able to take whatever output it generates, look out the window and go ...gee, since my algorithms are inadequate I may as well just heave a couple ticks mandatory on top -  heh. 

 

I was just looking at the 610 WPC forecasts and nice upper tier warm anomaly with above norm % rainfall not too far west hearkens to the smell of dew, thunder, crispy TCU by 11 am and Watches.   I bet Wiz' is all lubed up and ready to go - 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Like here is the Lincoln, VT COOP which is near Sugarbush, huge difference in precipitation from January/February (under 3" on average) to summer and fall (over 5" on average).

 

I'm surprised those Hartford values are so similar throughout the year, vs. up in NNE where monthly precip normals can be up to twice as much in the warm season than the cold season.

 

attachicon.gifprecip.jpg

 

NNE precip trends seem to hinge on proximity to the ocean.  Below are long-term (122 and 75 yr, respectively) averages for Farmington and CAR.  PWM is perobably even more consistent than Farmington.

 

Site...Farm....CAR

JAN....3.31.....2.44

FEB...3.03.....2.17

MAR..3.82.....2.50

APR...3.81.....2.62

MAY...3.78.....3.15

JUN....4.14.....3.49

JUL....3.68.....4.08

AUG..3.79......3.78

SEP...3.67.....3.43

OCT..4.03.....3.36

NOV...4.25....3.45

DEC...3.92....3.13

 

YR...45.23...37.70

 

Jan-Feb are essentially identical for both places when corrected for number of days.  CAR has a typical inland regime, with summer peak and winter valley.  The autumn peak is common near the Atlantic coast, even more pronounced at PWM, while Farmington's June bulge is harder to explain.  It's even more pronounced for 1981-2010, during which June averaged 4.93", topping even November.  1998 (13.96") accounts for a lot of that increase, but both sites show more annual precip in the 30-year record than the long term, by 7% at Farmington and 3% at CAR.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Earlier someone posted today sucks which was a head scratcher

Secondly with the dryness ,. Here come the fires

Not good going forward

@NorfolkPIO1: Norfolk Fire assisting the City of Torrington at another brush fire. Norfolk Rd. http://t.co/xNWfIurFaD

This should help feed your fire fetish:

http://www.recordonline.com/article/20150427/NEWS/150429413

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's no joke... I think I anecdoted my own dumbass/run-in with red-neckdom recently..

 

In short, day like today, only drier, 10 days ago... I have a flat ornamental lawn ...decorative burner thing with a dome screen, that I was using to try and feed pieces off giant brush piles of old, felled tree material from last autumn. 

 

Heh.  yeah -   

 

Turned around for 2 minutes to bend and snap stick sections, when something ineffable enticed me to turn around and check ... to find two tentacles of grass fire chewing as fast as the wind blew across last years thatch.  I mean, I mowed on Nov 1 so the lawn was very thin and low... but, pale tan nonetheless.  Fire can and will spread insanely quick! And if it's dry enough, even the pube thin tendrils of last years dead grass makes for marvelous neighborhood tinder -

 

You hear about California wild fires and their behavior and so forth and you process that information... But until you see fire have actual life like that!   holy crap - 

 

I was lucky to access the crawl space under my house and turn on the outside water supply in time, ...hook up the hose and get it all out just in the nick, before calling the fire department.  that would have been off the charts embarrassing to neighbors... Oh, and I'm sure, "Here, have a 500 $ fine while you're at it", too.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I worked fire service for 20 plus years, nary a spring without brush fires, like severe pretty meh in SNE ,Cape Cod pine barrens being the exception

 

Pine barrens are a fire-based ecosystem.  On a windy April day in 1963, fires burned across nearly 200,000 acres of NJ barrens, consuming over 100 buildings - today it would've been thousands, and mostly homes rather than the sheds and whatall that burned then.  Fire crews attempted to hold the line at the Garden State Parkway, successfully for about 5 miles but a one-mile stretch burned on both sides as sparks and burning fuel were blown the 100 yards across the cleared r-o-w.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah. Brush fires are part of the natural order of things. It can be bad when homes and property get damaged but it clears out dead wood

western areas would be the spot this year, east is well into green up

Eastern Area: Above normal significant wildland fire potential is expected across the Great Lakes and the northern half of the Mid-Mississippi Valley in April. Potential will return to normal in May and remain normal through the rest of the outlook period. Elsewhere in the geographical Area normal significant wildland fire potential is expected. Thirty to ninety day soil moisture and precipitation anomalies were below normal through much of the winter and early spring across portions of the Upper and Mid-Mississippi Valley as well as western New England. Abnormally dry conditions were indicated across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, northern Iowa, northern Pennsylvania, and western New York. Above normal temperatures are forecast over the Great Lakes April into May spreading southward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley in May. Drier-than-normal conditions overall are expected to persist into April across the Great Lakes and Mid-Mississippi Valley. The drier-than-normal conditions are expected to advance eastward into Ohio River Valley and western New England as May progresses. Drier-than-normal conditions overall may persist over parts of the Mississippi Valley into June 2015. If the warmer- and drier-than-normal trends persist or develop over the aforementioned areas, periods of above normal fire potential will occur across the Great Lakes and Mid-Mississippi Valley April into May; possibly spreading eastward through May prior to green up

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pine barrens are a fire-based ecosystem.  On a windy April day in 1963, fires burned across nearly 200,000 acres of NJ barrens, consuming over 100 buildings - today it would've been thousands, and mostly homes rather than the sheds and whatall that burned then.  Fire crews attempted to hold the line at the Garden State Parkway, successfully for about 5 miles but a one-mile stretch burned on both sides as sparks and burning fuel were blown the 100 yards across the cleared r-o-w.

 

I've thought a disaster novel called, "Fire Storm" would be a good write/read...  The story takes place in New England, after the travails of a highly unusual dry summer... Severe drought style, after a just an average uptake winter allowed for heavy spring growth.   

 

Foliage is lush early, but tinder by mid August. Even in-tree, not just brush and sere deadened undergrowth, either... So bad that pine needles in evergreens start to look more and more ever tan.  

 

Then a wayward high based CB pulses a Zeusian lightning charge into a the canopy of the equally challenged boreal forest up in Ontario along a cold front. Behind which... gusty winds purports additional low RH air,  that otherwise would have been the season's first cool shot.  The front comes down and as it passes the sky turns a dullard pal, the sun a barely discernible orb...then quite dusky ...at 1 pm. The air starts to feel eerily warmer and warmer as the light dims, as the smells are umistakable; then the sounds of winds through trees is offset by a wall of orange Hades.  It's all over the news to take cover - had been for hours.  The EMS had interrupted broadcasts and civil instructions tickered and or warned -- but what could anyone do...  It blasts through even down through the thoroughfares of ...interior wooded township communities.   Like a giant arcing Derecho of fire...   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not very dry up here as we have been BD for over a week, But fish on as ice is out on my fav lakes

hey Jeff, what do you know about long lake? going up in july for some R&R, will be staying right on the lake. never been there before

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...