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Spring Banter - Pushing up Tulips


Baroclinic Zone

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I remember the articles; it was certainly was using a sledgehammer to kill a flea. 

On a (maybe) interesting side note, Pohenegamook was the name chosen by three small towns (Estcourt, Sully, St.-Eleuthiere) adjacent to the lake of that name when those towns merged into a single municipality.  There are also stories of a creature ("Ponik") living in that lake, and there was enough buzz to bring about a scientific search one summer, with no "North American Nessie" discovered. 

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With no rain in the past 8 days and none on the horizon..going to start running into fire and other problems as we get into the warm pattern ..getting  dry

not to mention pollen/allergy issues

 

Back door disaster tomorrow, today sucks

how far south and west do you think?

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Thinking of heading to Vermont in late June for a romantic weekend. Want to take advantage of some of the offseason prices. Any suggestions?

 

As far as town locations?

 

Woodstock, Stowe, Manchester, Burlington are probably the Top 4. But you could find a romantic setting outside of towns too. There's some great B&B's out there, Wildflower Inn in East Burke just as an example. I've also heard good things about Castle Hill Resort and Spa in Ludlow.

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The 81-2010 normals have May in ORH as tied for the 5th wettest month. Or did you mean May is drier than the annual monthly avg?

 

 

I was looking at longterm normals...not '81-'10...here is what longterm averages had for May:

 

ORH was 6th wettest

BDL was  8th wettest

BOS was 9th wettest

PVD was 10th wettest

 

 

If we avoid ASOS stations which can be untrustworthy in the winter during recent years, then the West Hartford coop has May as tied for the 7th wettest month and Storrs coop near Kevin as May has the 9th wettest month.

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I was right . This is HFD

Month Precipitation

Jan 3.84in.

Feb 2.96in.

Mar 3.88in.

Apr 3.86in.

May 4.39in.

Jun 3.85in.

Jul 3.67in.

Aug 3.98in.

Sept 4.13in.

Oct 3.94in.

Nov 4.06in.

Dec 3.60in.

 

Man that's pretty consistent moisture... I never would've thought July would be the same as December. 

 

Up here it seems to be much more skewed towards wet in the summer and drier in the winter.

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Like here is the Lincoln, VT COOP which is near Sugarbush, huge difference in precipitation from January/February (under 3" on average) to summer and fall (over 5" on average).

 

I'm surprised those Hartford values are so similar throughout the year, vs. up in NNE where monthly precip normals can be up to twice as much in the warm season than the cold season.

 

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Yeah ...but the GGEM is notoriously zealous with tropical entities regardless of Atlantic Basin sectors.  It's a physical bias built (one would hope) unwittingly into the model, and then it takes whatever excuse imaginable it can find to convert a CU or TUTT convectively into a TC ...then sets up a booth at the local mall and sells it half price....

 

That said... the models not alone entirely this time.  Even the 00z Euro (oper.) had some kind of "dent" in the geopotential medium with a weakly closed low near the SE Coast.  06z GFS has something there around D9 or so, also...

 

We are only a month away from the first day of the TC season, and May/early spins are not hugely unusual.

 

It might really be more endemic to the nature of the pattern shift, where that region becomes susceptible to U/A/lower shear... 

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Man that's pretty consistent moisture... I never would've thought July would be the same as December. 

 

Up here it seems to be much more skewed towards wet in the summer and drier in the winter.

the PRISM climate portal has my county with the following 30 year normals

 

Jan 3.63

Feb 3.44

Mar 4.23

April 4.42

May 3.77

Jun  4.16

Jul  4.07

Aug 3.95

Sept 3.85

Oct 4.65

Nov 4.43

Dec 4.07

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This pattern (apparent) en route once we've sans this -NAO (...circa three days from now) era, demos nicely why Tampon Tip should never attempt seasonal forecasting. 

 

My ability stops dead end at general risk assessments inside of a month...mid/exteded range. But that seasonal crap just permutes on purpose, it seems, ...like, at me! 

 

I just got done discussing last week how nice-like Aprils tend to prelude despair in Mays...  What a weird year/spring this is...  We haven't had the onshore schits even once yet, despite a blocky bias to the pattern?!   Yeah, right - this years tenor coming into spring was schits incarnate, and now the operational runs expect us to believe we get a decent April (climatologically the schitest month of the foresakable months...) that parlays into that kind of May.  

 

whatever...  

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the PRISM climate portal has my county with the following 30 year normals

 

Jan 3.63

Feb 3.44

Mar 4.23

April 4.42

May 3.77

Jun  4.16

Jul  4.07

Aug 3.95

Sept 3.85

Oct 4.65

Nov 4.43

Dec 4.07

 

What's your annual precip?  That's pretty wet but you are close to the ocean.

 

BTV averages 1.76" total moisture in February...quite a difference. 

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This pattern (apparent) en route once we've sans this -NAO (...circa three days from now) era, demos nicely why Tampon Tip should never attempt seasonal forecasting.

My ability stops dead end at general risk assessments inside of a month...mid/exteded range. But that seasonal crap just permutes on purpose, it seems, ...like, at me!

I just got done discussing last week how nice-like Aprils tend to prelude despair in Mays... What a weird year/spring this is... We haven't had the onshore schits even once yet, despite a blocky bias to the pattern?! Yeah, right - this years tenor coming into spring was schits incarnate, and now the operational runs expect us to believe we get a decent April (climatologically the schitest month of the foresakable months...) that parlays into that kind of May.

whatever...

Yeah.. May certainly looks like summer wants to settle in early this year. Would be nice to have a nice early extended warm season for once
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