sauss06 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Horst's first call from late last evening was 3"-6" for my area, but he tweeted this morning that a new map was coming around noon. Perhaps he trims us back even further? Maybe, but I'd think you're in a little better spot then some of us in the Hbg area. you're a tad south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Horst's first call from late last evening was 3"-6" for my area, but he tweeted this morning that a new map was coming around noon. Perhaps he trims us back even further? Maybe 2-4 for you, 1-3 up this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Woah, PSU closed today?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'd wait till the Euro before bailing if I were you not bailing just concerned. Yesterday when I woke up and checked the overnight runs EVERYTHING was a crush job. Not a single model showed anything less then 8" in this area. The second wave was more consolidated and amped up. Since then every run (other then the euro) has shown a trend towards a more strung out multiple waves system that gets suppressed further and further south. I can even see a way that this area ends up with very little (less then 4") if the first wave comes through fast before temps crash tonight, then the second wave is mostly south. The 12z GFS/RGEM/NAM all give my area 3-6" but from a few inches on the tail of wave one and 1-3" on the fringe of wave 2. That is dangerous to me. On top of that 3-6" is a bust when my current forecast is 8-10 and yesterday every model was showing 8-14". I would like to believe that the euro perhaps is correctly keeping the second wave more amplified but it is very old data now and running against everything else and trends. We need a trend towards the Euro starting NOW! ETA: If I hug a model it will be the one that screws me over not the one that looks good. Sorry but history tells me 8"+ snows are rare and for every 10 threats the models show only 1 or 2 will actually happen. I am always skeptical and looking for what will screw us over. When I have a hard time finding it, then I feel confident. This time I don't like the trend to split the waves, taking energy from the second and more important one and thus allowing it to be suppressed south. VERY similar to what happened early march last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Maybe 2-4 for you, 1-3 up this way? That's exactly what I'm thinking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Jet dynamics always come into play for areas just north of what's modeled. As well as better ratios. I think 3" to 6" for TPK SOUTH is good call, with 4-8 near M/D border and 2-4 MDT north. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Horst's first call from late last evening was 3"-6" for my area, but he tweeted this morning that a new map was coming around noon. Perhaps he trims us back even further? I bet he keeps it pretty much the same for LNS but squeezes the 3 to 6 swath further south. And he might wait for euro. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Hoping to grab an 1" out of this storm. Just got done cleaning yesterday's mess. Wondering if we are going to see a slight slight tick north? That would help LSV. OFF TOPIC: Harbor Freight on March 6th will be having a small 2 cycle generator on sale for $89.00 It is 800 or 900 watt. It would run a few small things in a power outage. I am probably going to get one and thought I would give a heads up. http://t.harborfreight.com/900-peak700-running-watts-2-hp-63cc-2-cycle-gas-generator-epacarb-60338.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I bet he keeps it pretty much the same for LNS but squeezes the 3 to 6 swath further south. And he might wait for euro. Sent from my iPhone Great call! He just did just that. 1"-3" now north of the pike, 3"-6" for Lancaster county. He also shifted the 6"-12" area a bit further south at our longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well guys....no problems left with ice here. Temp up to 46 degrees...without the sun. I'm not giving up hope yet to reach 4". It's amazing how virtually every single significant event this winter has had our area in the questionable zone, whether it be mixing or getting fringed...seems like it's always been something. Who would think that the models would have a significant shift less than 24 hours before the start? I really do feel for NWS. All the models up through 0Z last night were in pretty good agreement about getting warning criteria snows. As I say often enough, there's always hope. We only have an hour to go until we see if Dr. No is Dr. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Great call! He just did just that. 1"-3" now north of the pike, 3"-6" for Lancaster county. He also shifted the 6"-12" area a bit further south at our longitude. 6-12 in northern MD.... nice Basically agrees with MillvilleWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well guys....no problems left with ice here. Temp up to 46 degrees...without the sun. I'm not giving up hope yet to reach 4". It's amazing how virtually every single significant event this winter has had our area in the questionable zone, whether it be mixing or getting fringed...seems like it's always been something. Who would think that the models would have a significant shift less than 24 hours before the start? I really do feel for NWS. All the models up through 0Z last night were in pretty good agreement about getting warning criteria snows. As I say often enough, there's always hope. We only have an hour to go until we see if Dr. No is Dr. Yes. its no damn wonder i drink. I'm with ya brother, i'm holding out hope for 4". Regardless of what we get, with the timing of this storm, i'd bet the schools close tomorrow. It seems like the kids will be in school until 4th of July and the Baseball/softball teams won't see grass until the middle of April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 sauss and I can't get a 4"+ storm to save our lives apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Rooting for Hburg and Carlisle hard in this one!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 sauss and I can't get a 4"+ storm to save our lives apparently. i think Katie (Mapgirl) should have a snow party at her pad and invite us!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The ABC 27 mets seemed very pessimistic about significant accumulations for MDT. They're still calling for a coating-3", which is the lowest of any of the major outlets thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Up to 53 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The ABC 27 mets seemed very pessimistic about significant accumulations for MDT. They're still calling for a coating-3", which is the lowest of any of the major outlets thus far. Matches Horst's map. And the latest models though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 i think Katie (Mapgirl) should have a snow party at her pad and invite us!! bring booze! and snacks. we like snacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Matches Horst's map. And the latest models though. Yep. How many times has this happened this winter? Oh well. As they say in the sports world, you have to let the game play out. You never know who might unexpectedly get under a freakish heavy band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yep. How many times has this happened this winter? Oh well. As they say in the sports world, you have to let the game play out. You never know who might unexpectedly get under a freakish heavy band. What's a bummer is this is extremely likely the last snow threat of the year. Next two weeks show nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 bring booze! and snacks. we like snacks. some booze has 3 food groups in it.... just sayin... I agree, this stuff drives me to drink....what a year. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 its no damn wonder i drink. I'm with ya brother, i'm holding out hope for 4". Regardless of what we get, with the timing of this storm, i'd bet the schools close tomorrow. It seems like the kids will be in school until 4th of July and the Baseball/softball teams won't see grass until the middle of April! I'm with you on the seeing grass thing. I'm hoping this storm is either a dump just because that is cool or zip so we can get this snowpack outta here. I'm REALLY tired of hitting putts on the carpet. Getting to be time to play on the real course. But even without a true torch, that March sun does some real damage when a few sunny days are strung together. Of course then it's the mud bog thing for a few weeks...<sigh>. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 bring booze! and snacks. we like snacks.After this winter I better bring a barrel!! Good Luck!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 6-12 in northern MD.... nice Basically agrees with MillvilleWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 LOL people at work banking on being off tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 LOL people at work banking on being off tomorrow. schools better be off, well at least ours...........i have a serious bet on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 With the medium range models still moving around so much how does the HRRR & RAP look so far with verification and trends? I know they nailed that changeover in western PA earlier Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Lol our schools are hardcore we had sheets of ice on all surfaces and no cancelations. I mean it was awful lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I hope RAP is right lol, gets precip all the way to NYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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