sauss06 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 surprisingly, I haven't done all that well this year. the 2/21 storm I did pretty well (7.5") everything else has been less than 3 inch events for me. I'm just over 7" shy of climo. Well hopefully you surpass it tomorrow. Tomorrow could be my biggest event, anything over 4"........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Harrisburg should be in an ice storm warning. Every surface that's not treated is a sheet of ice, haven't seen it this bad here in years. I slipped four times walking 10'. Thankfully I was against a retaining wall and didn't fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 surprisingly, I haven't done all that well this year. the 2/21 storm I did pretty well (7.5") everything else has been less than 3 inch events for me. I'm just over 7" shy of climo. "I haven't done all that well" - you are speaking to the wrong board with this quote. Most here's largest storm is 3.75" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 "I haven't done all that well" - you are speaking to the wrong board with this quote. Most here's largest storm is 3.75" or so. oh, sorry wasn't trying to pour salt into wounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Harrisburg should be in an ice storm warning. Every surface that's not treated is a sheet of ice, haven't seen it this bad here in years. I slipped four times walking 10'. Thankfully I was against a retaining wall and didn't fall. Penndot did a great job with main roads, many side roads suck. We may be above freezing, but it doesnt appear to be melting. Our parking lot still sucks and i spread rock salt at 6 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 oh, sorry wasn't trying to pour salt into wounds. Ha, no worries here. If Voyager or PSUHazleton catch wind of that though duck. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Where are all of our heavy hitters? We need the meet of our lineup giving us the PBP on our upcoming event.. HELLOOOOOOO where are you??? edit- picking pieces from mid atlantic forum, doesn't sound like a good run for us, sounds like a sharp cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I can't remember a time when it took this long for the ice to melt after temps went above freezing. I took a hard spill this morning. Harrisburg schools didn't even delay in spite of the very icy sidewalks. Bad call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I can't remember a time when it took this long for the ice to melt after temps went above freezing. I took a hard spill this morning. Harrisburg schools didn't even delay in spite of the very icy sidewalks. Bad call. Harrisburg schools have a little different threshold for delaying or closing. Demographical issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 4k NAM looks to give MDT 3-5". But holy mess does it crush DC/BWI and down toward Leesburg, VA. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Classes delayed here. It's a great call by the school IMO, sidewalks are still sheets of ice despite the warmer temps. Holding out for 3" or so, but I'd be happy with just an inch or two to cover up this icy crap. I'll be entertaining myself reading the MA threads it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Classes delayed here. It's a great call by the school IMO, sidewalks are still sheets of ice despite the warmer temps. Holding out for 3" or so, but I'd be happy with just an inch or two to cover up this icy crap. I'll be entertaining myself reading the MA threads it looks like. I'm not sure we get anything, honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yea guidance has really dipped south, if you're looking for anything substantial, I'd want to be in a MD border county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 keep talking dirty to me Haha. I see MD got thumped once again by the NAM. I think below the Mason Dixon is a given for a snow bomb at this point. All the dynamic features associated with a southern stream overrunning event are there for the taking in that region. You should be good for 5-9" in Parkton. North of you might be biting the bullet. The one thing I do like for this area will be timing of the arctic boundary. We'll flip a few hours sooner than our MA gang, so we have a bit more time to cash in. The steady plume of moisture will most likely be under modeled like it always is during southern stream events and I always prefer the Euro when it comes to handling that. Keep in mind the other meteorological processes that can help in a situation like this. Snow growth will be key. We could probably average 11-13:1 a few hours after the flip. Getting the cooler air aloft will help with getting the flakes to better powder like consistency which adds up quicker than a wet snow which compacts easily on itself. Takes less moisture to pile up. Plus, this jet streak will mean business. Not everyday you get a 150kt+ jet max which the area will be parked in the right entrance region. The only real downside is the best 700mb VV's. Those might be better for our extreme southern gang in the subforum, so that is a downer. Due to the area of confluence to the north, there will be a sharp cutoff of good precip probably north of Harrisburg. There will be some snow, but it'll be much less than areas in the southern tier. This is all what I'm seeing now so take it for what it's worth. I think the MA is a given to get hammered and the southern tier will be on the cusp. A moderate event is likely. A heavy event is probably 50/50 south of Rt 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yea guidance has really dipped south, if you're looking for anything substantial, I'd want to be in a MD border county. Whats the GFS going to tell us how much more south its going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Whats the GFS going to tell us how much more south its going. Looks like the GFS is north of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 most of the Wyoming Valley schools closed today (except Hanover area I suspect the superintendent will get lynched if anything happens) The college I work at had a delayed start (we are in winter break). It took me about an hour to scrap my driveway clear. we had about an inch of frozen white stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like the GFS is north of the NAM I wonder why we are in a WS warning. thats advisory event isnt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yea guidance has really dipped south, if you're looking for anything substantial, I'd want to be in a MD border county. I am 5 miles south of the Mason Dixon Line and I am very worried that "significant" is south of me even. It will snow, but I am nervous its turning into another 3-4" crap event. The 8-12" area may end up south of here even. I was really wanting to see a north bump in the 12z guidance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I wonder why we are in a WS warning. thats advisory event isnt it Only through 27 hours Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm not sure we get anything, honestly. Yeah sadly it's not looking so hot despite the WWA just issued. It's been a solid winter though with the snowpack going strong even now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I am 5 miles south of the Mason Dixon Line and I am very worried that "significant" is south of me even. It will snow, but I am nervous its turning into another 3-4" crap event. The 8-12" area may end up south of here even. I was really wanting to see a north bump in the 12z guidance... I'd wait till the Euro before bailing if I were you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Lol not sure why he would bail anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Haha. I see MD got thumped once again by the NAM. I think below the Mason Dixon is a given for a snow bomb at this point. All the dynamic features associated with a southern stream overrunning event are there for the taking in that region. You should be good for 5-9" in Parkton. North of you might be biting the bullet. The one thing I do like for this area will be timing of the arctic boundary. We'll flip a few hours sooner than our MA gang, so we have a bit more time to cash in. The steady plume of moisture will most likely be under modeled like it always is during southern stream events and I always prefer the Euro when it comes to handling that. Keep in mind the other meteorological processes that can help in a situation like this. Snow growth will be key. We could probably average 11-13:1 a few hours after the flip. Getting the cooler air aloft will help with getting the flakes to better powder like consistency which adds up quicker than a wet snow which compacts easily on itself. Takes less moisture to pile up. Plus, this jet streak will mean business. Not everyday you get a 150kt+ jet max which the area will be parked in the right entrance region. The only real downside is the best 700mb VV's. Those might be better for our extreme southern gang in the subforum, so that is a downer. Due to the area of confluence to the north, there will be a sharp cutoff of good precip probably north of Harrisburg. There will be some snow, but it'll be much less than areas in the southern tier. This is all what I'm seeing now so take it for what it's worth. I think the MA is a given to get hammered and the southern tier will be on the cusp. A moderate event is likely. A heavy event is probably 50/50 south of Rt 30. great write-up! I'm going to enjoy whatever i get, even if its 3-4" of "crap" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I know it a dangerous game to do so but the moisture trajectory on radar sure looks north of where the 12Z NAM says it's going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It def is Festus, these sagging fronts can be tough to diagnose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I know it a dangerous game to do so but the moisture trajectory on radar sure looks north of where the 12Z NAM says it's going. it sure does.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Haha. I see MD got thumped once again by the NAM. I think below the Mason Dixon is a given for a snow bomb at this point. All the dynamic features associated with a southern stream overrunning event are there for the taking in that region. You should be good for 5-9" in Parkton. North of you might be biting the bullet. The one thing I do like for this area will be timing of the arctic boundary. We'll flip a few hours sooner than our MA gang, so we have a bit more time to cash in. The steady plume of moisture will most likely be under modeled like it always is during southern stream events and I always prefer the Euro when it comes to handling that. Keep in mind the other meteorological processes that can help in a situation like this. Snow growth will be key. We could probably average 11-13:1 a few hours after the flip. Getting the cooler air aloft will help with getting the flakes to better powder like consistency which adds up quicker than a wet snow which compacts easily on itself. Takes less moisture to pile up. Plus, this jet streak will mean business. Not everyday you get a 150kt+ jet max which the area will be parked in the right entrance region. The only real downside is the best 700mb VV's. Those might be better for our extreme southern gang in the subforum, so that is a downer. Due to the area of confluence to the north, there will be a sharp cutoff of good precip probably north of Harrisburg. There will be some snow, but it'll be much less than areas in the southern tier. This is all what I'm seeing now so take it for what it's worth. I think the MA is a given to get hammered and the southern tier will be on the cusp. A moderate event is likely. A heavy event is probably 50/50 south of Rt 30. Great analysis! I am hugging the Euro for this event. If it holds at 12z then we are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Am I wrong in thinking that even a small amount of snow will wreak havoc on the roads considering that there is likely to be a layer of ice under it following today's melting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Horst's first call from late last evening was 3"-6" for my area, but he tweeted this morning that a new map was coming around noon. Perhaps he trims us back even further? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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