NortheastPAWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Thinking more like 2-4 inches here in State College, all snow. Harrisburg might be 1-3 with a changeover to zr or maybe even rain at some point. But I hope I'm wrong! I'm going with 1-3" for W-B. Been burned too many times this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Sunday storm is a teaser for much bigger storm Thursday...little south for now but much better potential. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Is that what used to be the cutter or a storm after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Is that what used to be the cutter or a storm after? After. Cutter comes on Tuesday. (I think) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Looks like the 12Z Euro is sticking with around 6" (all snow) for UNV on Sunday. Knowing most here missed out on the State College Special Surprise event of yesterday, have put together a short video so you can still enjoy at least some of it. Of course, the accumulation happened overnight, but the following morning was pretty interesting—as I've explained on the Vimeo page. Along with an explanation of how Jim Cantore coincidentally ended up being included. Rick, to answer your question about the music–it's licensed via SmartSound. Not the best music library content-wise, but pretty good for customizing various versions to fit almost any length video. It's surprisingly flexible. Hope you guys enjoy this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 On the NWS snow map Clearfield county has a range of 3-4" to 8-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 On the NWS snow map Clearfield county has a range of 3-4" to 8-10" Sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Before we get all in on the event at hand tomorrow I will say the Tuesday/Wed cutter has looked a lot weaker, specifically on the Euro and Canadian (as well as the NAM on the edge of it's range). A weaker and more sheared out solution would imply a warm push that isn't as impressive and shorter duration. Such things could lead to a mess in the p-type department or even a thump of snow at the early to mid stages of the storm coming through. Western PA west of the mountains would likely still see a quick transition and pretty warm temps, but I'm not so sure for the rest of PA east of the mountains. We could be setting up for another case of muted or denied torch... which can be hard to go against given the trends this (and last) winter. Regardless, looks like cold will quickly press back behind this system, and we'll have to watch for that second impulse.. that currently looks to keep its precip south of PA. On the other hand if things keep going the way they're going, the first wave Tues/Wed might end up being the one that does the damage anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 New event. Winter Weather Advisory from 3/1/2015 7:00 AM to 3/2/2015 7:00 AM EST for Lancaster County, York County. More information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The western CTP counties look to finally do well with this one. I guess the good news for us snow lovers is that it should be a pretty wet snow that'll help top off the snow pack. The 2-5 we have forecast here would certainly be a nice way to send off the season if we don't have any more storms. On an unrelated note there is chaos here in downtown SC...already saw someone being arrested! The "state pattys day" tradition is going strong apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 18z NAM looks similar to its 12z run, maybe 1 inch less. Still looks like a solid 4-5 inches in the LSV per the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Before we get all in on the event at hand tomorrow I will say the Tuesday/Wed cutter has looked a lot weaker, specifically on the Euro and Canadian (as well as the NAM on the edge of it's range). A weaker and more sheared out solution would imply a warm push that isn't as impressive and shorter duration. Such things could lead to a mess in the p-type department or even a thump of snow at the early to mid stages of the storm coming through. Western PA west of the mountains would likely still see a quick transition and pretty warm temps, but I'm not so sure for the rest of PA east of the mountains. We could be setting up for another case of muted or denied torch... which can be hard to go against given the trends this (and last) winter. Regardless, looks like cold will quickly press back behind this system, and we'll have to watch for that second impulse.. that currently looks to keep its precip south of PA. On the other hand if things keep going the way they're going, the first wave Tues/Wed might end up being the one that does the damage anyways. I've been hearing about this trend...Looks like the 12z/84 NAM (I know...) was implying at least a 1-3" front end event before the warm air would surge in. I just recall that last week's event was, at one point, looking like heavy rain with temps torching to the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Does anyone know why the model data is not coming out to TwisterData, Instant Weather Maps, and Tropical Tidbits in a timely manner? Up until today, at least Instant Weather Maps was pretty close to NCEP in their model run access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Sun is warm this afternoon. Temp says 26 but it feels in the 40s, sun is powerful today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 12z Euro ensemble mean and control run both have the best look that they have had thus far for tomorrow. Both now show 3-4 inches across the LSV and just about all of the 51 ensemble members look pretty similar. As more the last wave for next week, the 12z ensemble mean doesn't support the Euro Op which had suppressed the heavy snow in to Virginia. Very few of the 51 members had the best snow to the south. About 20 of The members have most of CTP in 10+ inches by the end of all three events, and the majority had all of us in 6+ by the end of the 3 events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 12z Euro ensemble mean and control run both have the best look that they have had thus far for tomorrow. Both now show 3-4 inches across the LSV and just about all of the 51 ensemble members look pretty similar. As more the last wave for next week, the 12z ensemble mean doesn't support the Euro Op which had suppressed the heavy snow in to Virginia. Very few of the 51 members had the best snow to the south. About 20 of The members have most of CTP in 10+ inches by the end of all three events, and the majority had all of us in 6+ by the end of the 3 events. Id be shocked if MDT gets 2" pure snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 The western CTP counties look to finally do well with this one. I guess the good news for us snow lovers is that it should be a pretty wet snow that'll help top off the snow pack. The 2-5 we have forecast here would certainly be a nice way to send off the season if we don't have any more storms. On an unrelated note there is chaos here in downtown SC...already saw someone being arrested! The "state pattys day" tradition is going strong apparently. That's unfortunate, I didn't see many headlines leading up to it this year and was kinda hoping it faded. I'm not opposed to a good party, but I was never a fan of this holiday outside of maybe the first year it came into existence (since the actual St Patty's Day was on Spring Break that year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'm guessing 1 to 3 with precip hole like last Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 12z Euro ensemble mean and control run both have the best look that they have had thus far for tomorrow. Both now show 3-4 inches across the LSV and just about all of the 51 ensemble members look pretty similar. As more the last wave for next week, the 12z ensemble mean doesn't support the Euro Op which had suppressed the heavy snow in to Virginia. Very few of the 51 members had the best snow to the south. About 20 of The members have most of CTP in 10+ inches by the end of all three events, and the majority had all of us in 6+ by the end of the 3 events. Think we are looking at a 4-5" down here. Further south obviously less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Id be shocked if MDT gets 2" pure snow tomorrow. CTP advisory is for 2-4 inches and just about every model has MDT with over 2 inches. The radar is juiced in Missouri and Illinois and heading straight for us. Temps won't be an issue. I think CTP has a pretty good call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 That's unfortunate, I didn't see many headlines leading up to it this year and was kinda hoping it faded. I'm not opposed to a good party, but I was never a fan of this holiday outside of maybe the first year it came into existence (since the actual St Patty's Day was on Spring Break that year). When I was a freshman here back in the mid sixties, we'd order 12-15 half kegs for a weekend. By the time I graduated that was down to maybe 4-5. And it was all due to that stuff that's now being made legal for recreational purposes. Funny how almost no one ever got arrested in those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 CTP advisory is for 2-4 inches and just about every model has MDT with over 2 inches. The radar is juiced in Missouri and Illinois and heading straight for us. Temps won't be an issue. I think CTP has a pretty good call right now. My grid says 1-2", we'l see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 A good 2" - 4" on a weekend would be a nice way to close out the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Now imagine Keith Olbermann witnessing State Patty's Day after the war he waged on State College last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Hopefully, Keith Olbermann is in rehab under the care of nurse Ratched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Cold air looks entrenched across CTP land. Current dew points range between -1 to -6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 That's unfortunate, I didn't see many headlines leading up to it this year and was kinda hoping it faded. I'm not opposed to a good party, but I was never a fan of this holiday outside of maybe the first year it came into existence (since the actual St Patty's Day was on Spring Break that year). The yelling of obscenities from a car/apartment while drunk is still a big hobby here haha. Talked to a cop for a bit at a fast food place and he said its been a relatively quiet weekend considering. On a related note, still a solid 6-8" here even with some melting/sublimation today. 25 doesn't feel so bad these days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 NAM toward the end of its run( I know... Long range NAM ...) Likes a front end thump with storm number 2 and puts down another 4 inches or so over most of CTP, with combined amounts Between these 2 events approaching 8-10 inches in most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 NAM toward the end of its run( I know... Long range NAM ...) Likes a front end thump with storm number 2 and puts down another 4 inches or so over most of CTP, with combined amounts Between these 2 events approaching 8-10 inches in most places. You seem extremely confidant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'm confident we'll see a few inches tomorrow , But not confident yet on the rest of the week. We'll just have to deal with them 1 at a time. I just want 4 more inches so MDT reaches climo for the season and we should have some chances this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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