pawatch Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Map change they bumped up LSV and Central Pa. down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 CTP knows - the Central PA Precip Hole is real! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Map change they bumped up LSV and Central Pa. down Wow what a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Wow what a change Yes indeed ! About an hour ago they reissued the WWA and bumped range to 2 to 5 inches, and are now downplaying ice, limiting it to small amounts possible south of the turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Yes indeed ! About an hour ago they reissued the WWA and bumped range to 2 to 5 inches, and are now downplaying ice, limiting it to small amounts possible south of the turnpike. . Map def lines up with the LWX map better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Yes indeed ! About an hour ago they reissued the WWA and bumped range to 2 to 5 inches, and are now downplaying ice, limiting it to small amounts possible south of the turnpike. very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The Central PA Precip Hole is now on the NAM. It is real! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 NAM very nice for LSV guidance pretty much has come into agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Lol am I looking at the wrong Nam or does it not show a dry spot for LSV to State College to endless mountains?Your exhausting to be honest we have had .50 precip for many runs now. Hope everyone gets into this first day of March fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Well now the GFS seems to have no apparent gap. Pretty much everyone gets 0.25"+ QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Well now the GFS seems to have no apparent gap. Pretty much everyone gets 0.25"+ QPF.GFS same as NAM between you and wmpt it is tiring to continue to hear about your holes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 lol...CTP snowmap #3 since noon today just took Cumberland county from 1-2" to 3-4" at 6:30pm to 2-3" at 10:35pm. They are having a very tough time figuring out accumulations at the moment. 3.5" here with the next storm would put me at my highest accumulating storm of the entire season. Woo-hoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Sorry erased mentions of it, just interesting to see two exact same storm setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 One other item of note since no one else has mentioned it yet. The highest barometric pressure of the winter season occurred at 10:30 this morning with a local reading of 30.83" (1044 mb). Previous highest pressure of the season was 30.67" earlier in the season. My temp is now down to 13.5 degrees with a dew point of +6.4 degrees. Pressure slowly coming down now at 30.70"...still a very high reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 This storm put down 6" north of Dallas, I hope we can get half of that here. How sad lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 Commence light snow here, 14ºF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlleghanyBlade Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The radar looks good but I'm not seeing anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 2:41 AM discussion from CTP is thorough and fascinating. They changed the snow & ice amounts yet again, but do mention the immense uncertainty of the forecast in the LSV. "Latest 00Z oper models and 03Z sref indicate the threat for around 0.25 inch of ice from freezing rain later this afternoon into this evening across the lower susq valley, mainly to the southeast of the i-81 corridor. Since the event will start as several hours of snow then mix with/change to sleet and fzra with ice amounts still uncertain, we won/t make any upgrades to winter storm/ice storm warnings at this point. Additional high res models this morning will likely provide better detail to make the Decision regarding potential ice amounts and locations. Still think that most of this event will fall as snow to the north of the rt22/322 corridor in central penn." "Short Term /8 Am This Morning Through 6 Pm Monday/: Still thinking that most precip - except perhaps near the md border south of kthv and klns - will be snow/briefly mixed with sleet, as temps remain cold through the time of heaviest precip. The very weak low developing on the delmarva and rushing off shore later Sunday will enhance the precip/snow over the sern cos, and have tried to reflect this in the update. Did not want to go too wild with changes but the 18Z runs and newest 00Z NAM portray a Decent slug of cold/frozen precip rolling thru the far sern cos in the afternoon and early evening. Only at the tail end of that precip - as the dry slot occurs - is there enough warming aloft to change the p-type to liquid or sleet. Very interesting part of the forecast will be the snow type. There is a really good signal in the upper part of the clouds in the middle of the day where the best vertical motion is squarely in the preferred dendritic growth zone around -15c. Then, it falls through a highly moist/saturated column and gets only close to melting inmost place. This could make some giant but wet flakes. thus, a high water content and heavier snow. The snow physics, the winds aloft and sfc temps all will pull the snow accums one way and another. However, temp profiles look pretty similar to past weekends very similar storm. Many similarities exist with that prev storm, but the temps appear just slightly colder. Thinking that we will get bigger flakes but end up with the same water content and slightly higher snow accums over most of the area. bust potential exists in the se, where if there ends up being no turNover to mix/zr will mean that the 0.6 inches of water progged there May nudge them near warning amounts. Even this seems very similar to the 21st." Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 First light flakes have begun in Marysville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Light snow had just started when I woke up at 5:00am. Looking at CTP's map above, I'm now back in the 4-6 range. I've been in and out of it with each new version they put out yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Light snow. Bit surprised to see just 14.2 for the temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Light snow is an understatement here. It is of the smallest "pixie dust" variety. It's steady, but EXTREMELY light. If it were to remain at this rate and flake size, it would take 12 hours to get between one half and one inch of accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Snow in York New Salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 21 with moderate snow. Roads/walks covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 22/11 at Millersville with a thick overcast deck. Looks like a chance for some ice this afternoon. Still think with March sun it's going to be tough to amass steady accretion during the daylight, especially on the roads. Will be slippery elsewhere. If this was in earlier winter say December through early February, this would be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 1" of new snow Light snow continues. 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Sitting at 20 here with light pixie dust and approaching 1/2 inch. Thinking this will be nuisance event here (2" or less) followed by very light snow, to freezing rain, then plain rain for Tues-Wed. Which will make everything nice and white, then protect the snowpack with a nice sheet of ice so that the following rain will have little impact on melting the snowpack. This is all fine by me. What I don't like is the prospect of more unseasonable cold without a nice big thump to end it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Steady light snow has picked up in intensity over the last hour. Radar looks great with precip all the way back to Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Steady light snow has picked up in intensity over the last hour. Radar looks great with precip all the way back to Missouri. Crossing fingers to squeak out a plowable snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The snow in YNS is moderate and everything is coated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.