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Wow

Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp

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This is the first time we've seen model trends going into the "warm" area.... we will have to see if it continues. Another 24 hours of model runs like that and most of the area will be more liquid than frozen.

You are the only one saying rain.

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No they don't.  CLT has a huge warm nose, would be rain/sleet as 2m's are above freezing.  Sorry bud.

 

Sorry BUD. Not worried at all about 2m temps being output from a model. 

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You are the only one saying rain.

I think it will have some rain mixed in for sure at RDU.  Not all rain...  but some rain to cut down accumulation totals.  This is very similar to situations I've experienced in the past...  That rain/snow line is gonna creep up toward Wake Co. for sure...    

Forecasters intuition based on what i've seen.  

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I am still a novice at this but isn't it correct that you don't want to be in the jackpot area now or is the timing right? I have learned now to cut the NAM totals in half!

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We do need the NAM to back off just a touch. My area is not in good shape with this run. CLT to RDU north looks great though. Someone is getting a pile of snow.

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Sorry BUD. Not worried at all about 2m temps being output from a model. 

 

HUH?  You were worried enough about RDU's mid-level temps is that your first post is that the NAM sucked for RDU and now your saying your not worried about your own temps...good luck with that.

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history tells you that the jackpot zone is usually the one closest to the transition line.  i love where rdu is sitting for this one 36 hrs out.  heck, ive already got an inch on the ground here and it is still coming down just from today.

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HUH?  You were worried enough about RDU's mid-level temps is that your first post is that the NAM sucked for RDU and now your saying your not worried about your own temps...good luck with that.

 

Yes I was worried that thickness wasn't good for RDU...then I looked at output and saw it was fine. CLT looks better WRT thickness than RDU so no I'm not worried about it. Whats always been your problem with me? 

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Question:  How much will today's snow impact temps tomorrow and the storm?

The models may not be picking up on the impact of this snow cover.  I've got almost 2 inches in southern wake right now.  

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Yes I was worried that thickness wasn't good for RDU...then I looked at output and saw it was fine. CLT looks better WRT thickness than RDU so no I'm not worried about it. What's always been your problem with me? 

 

How does it look better?  I just showed it wasn't, not even close.

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No worries, Chris. Glenn Burns said there would be a pop-up snow storm in your neck of the woods at exactly 4:43PM Wednesday. ;)

I shudder at the sight of his name.

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I think sleet could mix in for a period in Raleigh if the nam is a perfect prog, but it's likely a little too wound up which is normal for it. Generally anytim the slp is a solid 50 miles offshore like it's showing, snow is the primary precip type from raleigh west. Just relax people.

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Question:  How much will today's snow impact temps tomorrow and the storm?

The models may not be picking up on the impact of this snow cover.  I've got almost 2 inches in southern wake right now.  

Ask wral, i heard the ground is going to be too warm.

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Question: How much will today's snow impact temps tomorrow and the storm?

The models may not be picking up on the impact of this snow cover. I've got almost 2 inches in southern wake right now.

I've gotten about an inch east of you. It should hold temps down a couple degrees tomorrow.

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I think sleet could mix in for a period in Raleigh if the nam is a perfect prog, but it's likely a little too wound up which is normal for it. Generally anytim the slp is a solid 50 miles offshore like it's showing, snow is the primary precip type from raleigh west. Just relax people.

this is the normal 36hrs out panic, people wont settle down until it is on top of them.  

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This is when meteorology outweighs modelology...

 

Having experience in this area gives you a lot of insider knowledge into what is actually going to happen..

 

That's why I'm going with more rain than snow for RDU.  Rain to begin with, changing to some snow...1-2 inches.

That's not meteorology. That's just stupid.

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How does it look better?  I just showed it wasn't, not even close.

 

This is what I was looking at. FFS man, did you not read what I said once I looked closer into it? 

 

8YQri47.png

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I wish for once I could count on a solid big one. Maybe I am fretting over nothing but It would break my weenie heart to have a cold rain while 10 miles away gets plastered.

I've been watching WSB all morning and they seem to be doing a decent job while being vague. They show a quick hitting mix tomorrow afternoon and then regurgitate the NWS a bit.

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There's probably not much reason to argue over the finer details of the NAM, as it is likely too warm and too wet.

The NAM drops over a buck and a quarter of precip here--I'll believe it when I see it.

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This is what I was looking at. FFS man, did you not read what I said once I looked closer into it? 

 

 

 

Let it go....let it go....let it go.  I don't think you know where RDU is, LOL.

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Let it go....let it go....let it go.  I don't think you know where RDU is, LOL.

 

The X was just a spot I picked on the map. I know RDU is west of there. When you're quickly looking at a map that isn't zoomed into an area you can't pinpoint things exactly. Again you do this every year and I've never understood what your problem is with me. Instead of being passive aggressive about it just come out and say it. 

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RGEM is rolling. Let's see what it has to say before we organize the group cliff dive.

 

Closed off over AZ at hour 3, looks good! Also, as a brief aside, I have gotten like 10 minutes worth of work done so far today.

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The X was just a spot I picked on the map. I know RDU is west of there. When you're quickly looking at a map that isn't zoomed into an area you can't pinpoint things exactly. Again you do this every year and I've never understood what your problem is with me. Instead of being passive aggressive about it just come out and say it. 

 

Dude your right, my bad, it was a slot of sleet for us and all snow for CLT.

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I don't know what to believe. 00z Euro with 1-2" and NAM with piles of sleet. WTF?

At least the 06z GFS was beefier.

Looking at Bufkit for RDU - the nose just barely hits 0C around 8K at 08Z, onto +2 at 09Z, back to -1 at 10Z.  So even though it indicates IP from 4 - 7 a.m. Thursday, sounding is most likely mainly snow except for an hour.

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No worries, Chris. Glenn Burns said there would be a pop-up snow storm in your neck of the woods at exactly 4:43PM Wednesday. ;)

lol..yeah boy. I always depend on glenn f'n burns to keep us up to speed....the only problem is he normally is going backwards :arrowhead:

 

a word about the nam. it's is a good bit further north than the rest of the guidance, excluding the sref of course. at the same time the nam has the surface low along the florida panhandle or even extreme se alabama, the gfs and euro has it well down in the gulf..with the canadian and uk probably a good 75 to 100 miles further south.

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WPC thinks the nam is too wound up and the only model with a closed low that far east. I'd think a blend of models should be the way to go instead of focusing on just what the nam is showing.

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