PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 9Z SREF for RDU has decreased the mean snow to 2 inches... POPS went wayyyy down. ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 SREF snowfall means trimmed back in this area. 4-5" area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 While the 9z sref is coming out, there were quite a few panels that were showing this for snow totals on the 3z. Not trying to rile the weenies up but making everyone aware of the possibilities. You can probably pivot that axis more north toward the MA based on what I've seen so far with the precip panels. I see CLT to GSO to RDU getting blasted with this one. 8"+ Example sref member.. Enjoy the warm up event this morning. The real deal is coming tomorrow. You mean you think we will actually get 8+? If you just cut that map in half it would still be a big impact event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 9Z SREF for RDU has decreased the mean snow to 2 inches... POPS went wayyyy down. ???? You must be looking at the wrong run. Mine says 4.64" for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 SREF mean is 2 inches for RDU. Must be because it has us getting to 42-42 on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 You must be looking at the wrong run. Mine says 4.64" for RDU. that includes today's 2" or so that it gives, man sref took a nosedive for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 You must be looking at the wrong run. Mine says 4.64" for RDU. that includes today's snow. Thursday is 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 There's some rainy members in there, which is driving down the mean now. QPF is obviously up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Haha come on, Wow! .......just kidding, nice fantasy map Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 There's some rainy members in there, which is driving down the mean now. QPF is obviously up. yea qpf for rdu is 1"+, must be some reaaaally rainy members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 SREF mean is 2 inches for RDU. Must be because it has us getting to 42-42 on Wednesday. Great, now it does a complete 360. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 WSB in house model shows zero snow for city of Atlanta. Not sure where they pull from but Minton just mostly a rainstorm, kind of a dangerous call I think right now. And we all see what's being spit out by the models. And FFC has put the metro counties on watch. So if WSB is actually telling people it isn't going to snow in north ATL tomorrow, they're putting people in a bad position. That's how Snowmageddon happened, general public didn't understand what was coming. (I don't know if WSB is truly saying this or not, I don't watch or listen to their outlets.) The cool thing is that the NWS uses the alert system to cell phones and such now. So even in the face of crap reporting, hopefully when the warning goes out (and it eventually will), people get the news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Some of those sref members probably come inland on the nc coast. Heading out to play in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 There's some rainy members in there, which is driving down the mean now. QPF is obviously up. Yes, that is worry now if the sref is onto something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Great, now it does a complete 360. So its back where it started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Great point James. (BTW, do you sleep) My location EHO had a mean of .79 for the 21Z and that is up to 1.12 at the 9Z run There's some rainy members in there, which is driving down the mean now. QPF is obviously up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 There's some rainy members in there, which is driving down the mean now. QPF is obviously up. Went from 8.54 to 7.99 for HKY not to bad of a drop for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yes, that is worry now if the sref is onto something here. If this starts going south now and today ends up being a bigger deal....oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I've said for the last 2 days I'm worried about temps on wednesday being too warm and having more front end rain than snow.. Looks like that's what's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Thanks. All the amping up can stop. QPF looks fantastic though. 06z GFS Ensemble mean snow. GFS Ens trends show slight strengthening of the wave and very slight lifting of heights over the northeast...yes, let's stop with the amping, but things looks good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Plumes are down for RDU as it sees more sleet members than snow. QPF is up though, doubt we see sleet, I think it's either snow or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I've said for the last 2 days I'm worried about temps on wednesday being too warm and having more front end rain than snow.. Looks like that's what's going to happen. 42 would not be too warm to overcome quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 the 9z sref MEAN is now showing a cutoff low over AR at 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Honestly not a good trend in the latest SREF....RDU mainly a mix and Harnett South is mostly rain as predominant PTYPE, as others said many rainy members....1"+ QPF and only 4" snow out of it. Could end up a big fail for Thursday if right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 And we all see what's being spit out by the models. And FFC has put the metro counties on watch. So if WSB is actually telling people it isn't going to snow in north ATL tomorrow, they're putting people in a bad position. That's how Snowmageddon happened, general public didn't understand what was coming. (I don't know if WSB is truly saying this or not, I don't watch or listen to their outlets.) The cool thing is that the NWS uses the alert system to cell phones and such now. So even in the face of crap reporting, hopefully when the warning goes out (and it eventually will), people get the news. It is a terrible disservice for a top 10 market. I mean it is 24 hours away, can't they get a clue?? Honestly cannot believe Karen is still there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 wow looks like the whole state of NC, ETN, N.GA., upstate SC and S. VA. could be widespread 6-10 If this snow we're getting right now continues for very much longer, we're gonna get 6 inches in Greenville today, in spite of all the negativity some people on these forums have. Mother Nature rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 RAH Disco... .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONVERGING TOWARD A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTERSTORM FOR MOST OF THE NC PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTALPLAIN...AND POSSIBLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC...WED NIGHT.BRIEF S/W RIDGING AND INFLUENCE OF LINGERING AND SIGNIFICANTLYWEAKENED/MODIFIED (1015-1020 MB) ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT INA CLEAR START TO THE DAY WED...BUT WITH INCREASING AND CONSIDERABLEHIGH CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF AN INITIALLY CLOSED LOWOVER THE SW US THAT WILL DEAMPLIFY/SHEAR EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERNGULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BY WED NIGHT. THE THICKENING CLOUDSWILL SERVE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES SHY OF FULL SUN VALUES...WITH MOSTLYLOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED.THE APPROACH OF THE DEAMPLIFYING WAVE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN NORTHERNGOM CYCLOGENESIS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW THEN EXPECTED TOTRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA WED EVE AND OFF THE SE USCOAST BY THU EARLY THU. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THESOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. PARTIALTHICKNESS VALUES HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE FAVORED 00Z ECMWF...WHICH FITS RIGHT IN THE THE MIDDLE OF A MULTI-MODEL AND RUN ENSEMBLECONSENSU...WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY SNOW OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERNCOASTAL PLAIN...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...TRANSITIONING TOFREEZING RAIN OR RAIN FROM MEB TO FAY TO GSB AND POINTS SOUTH.HOWEVER...EVEN THOSE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW...WHICHWOULD ALLOW HIGHER SNOW TOTALS TO EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH.TWO THINGS JUMP OUT WITH THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM. THE FIRST ISTHE PARENT COLD HIGH...AN ARCTIC ONE AROUND 1045 MB...WILL BECENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA - WELL WEST OF AN IDEAL POSITION FORA BIG WINTER STORM FOR CENTRAL NC. THE SECOND...HOWEVER...IS THATTHE PRECEDING ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGHDRAMATICALLY WEAKENED BY WED NIGHT...MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH...WITHSFC TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT AROUND OR JUST BELOW 32 DEGREES.AND IN FACT...PROJECTED PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES INVOF AND NORTH OFUS HIGHWAY 64 ARE IN THE RANGE TYPICAL OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORMSOF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW...BASED ON AN EXTENSIVE WINTERWEATHER DATABASE CHAMPIONED BY KERMIT KEETER. WHILE QPF FROM THEFAVORED 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH RANGES FROM TWO OR THREE TENTHSOVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO FIVE OR SIX TENTHS OVER THE SANDHILLS ANDSOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...WOULD NOT SUPPORT SNOW TOTALS QUITE THATHIGH...THEY WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW - MOSTLIKELY INVOF US HIGHWAY 64 WHERE THE RELATIVE HIGHEST QPF WILLOVERLAP WITH PROJECTED THERMAL PROFILES/PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUESSUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW.A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR MUCH OFCENTRAL NC.AFTER LINGERING LIGHT SNOW...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH TO DRIZZLESOUTH...OWING TO A LOSS OF SATURATION ALOFT/IN THE ICE NUCLEATIONZONE...SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY THU. THE APPROACH OF A WEAKCLIPPER LOW AND ATTENDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD CAUSE A FEW RAIN ORSNOW SHOWERS TO SPILL EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE PIEDMONTDURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 35 TO 40 DEGREES. COLDER AND PARTIALCLEARING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S THU NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Roanoke is close to 10" on the SREF mean. And you laughed at the notion of a Roanoke jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 06Z NAM Cobb outputs for KGSP 14" total with rates as high as 16:1. I understand this is one run, but I love the rates that "may" take place when the system moves in. Fasten those seat belts folks. Should be a fun roll coaster today and into tomorrow. 24 hour and maybe 12 hour rule in full effect today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yeah... This is turning into a rain/snow special for Wake County... Can't say I'm surprised, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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