packfan98 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Wow, he really did bump up his ideas fast. Looks reasonable given the model output this morning. We've got a nice blanket of snowfall and currently snowing. 1-2".. that'll keep the ground cool! He tends to heavily weigh the SREF and the probabilities maps in his forecast from what I have seen. His map would support this idea. It does seem about 2 inches higher than I would go with at this lead time. I hope he is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 how great is it to see the models trend better as we get closer and not worse. nam really nailed todays event and i think the 12z suite will give us all a good idea on where the big dog totals will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 So what's wrong with the nam at 5h?It's too strong Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 And nobody buys the nam being that strong. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Biggest thing I like in the trends from the 00 - 06 is the lee side shadow has now filled in. I hope this is a trend that continues throughout the day. Hi-Res NAM looked just as wet to me vs. last nights run for total QPF...not sure why that WX bell map looks the way it does. If anything it's wetter. 00z 6z I think it's about the same as in reality as 6z came in a little wetter for this morning which that accounts for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 06Z RGEM also looked great this morning for snowfall accumulations. Keep in mind this only goes out to 48 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Interesting discussion out of BHM this morning.......they're going with a blend of the NAM/SREF/ and EURO.....they feel the NAM is over amped as well but can't discount it either. Calling for the heaviest snows to be along I-20 and north reaching over toward Anniston. Don't want to weenie out. But looks like here in the northern Atlanta suburbs we're really in the jackpot zone. - Buck I agree..believe the sweet spot is going to generally be from between just north of i-20 to gainesville. This area seems to be in the location of heaviest precip while staying just cold enough for all snow. That said, the mountains will have higher ratios and probably less waisted on cooling the boundary layer initially. Regardless, things are looking good right now. fwiw and not sure if it's been mentioned but the euro ensembles were a good bit colder vs earlier runs and maybe even a touch colder than the operational run for georgia..with the 0c 850s almost down to macon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 This could assist with more snow vs rain in the I-85 area as stated by GSP in the latest . 06Z RGEM also looked great this morning for snowfall accumulations. Keep in mind this only goes out to 48 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 And nobody buys the nam being that strong. Sent from my iPhone Robert does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 09z SREF is even more amped... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 We are getting a great snow cover here in the Triangle right now. I can't help but think this will help keep temperatures from getting as warm on Wednesday ahead of this snow... and it also cools the road and ground that much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I agree..believe the sweet spot is going to generally be from between just north of i-20 to gainesville. This area seems to be in the location of heaviest precip while staying just cold enough for all snow. That said, the mountains will have higher ratios and probably less waisted on cooling the boundary layer initially. Regardless, things are looking good right now. fwiw and not sure if it's been mentioned but the euro ensembles were a good bit colder vs earlier runs and maybe even a touch colder than the operational run for georgia..with the 0c 850s almost down to macon Hope you are correct Chris. My backyard. Dusting I got this morning. It came down pretty hard in places when I was driving to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Sref looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 09z SREF is even more amped... Temps still in line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leedev Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Robert does.Robert has been wrong often enough since I've been lurking these boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fig Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Well, a few flakes this morning but it looks like typical SE NC screw job for Wed/Thurs event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 SREF and NAM are now the ones keeping the s/w strongest and most amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Sref looks great! .5 now gets to DC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Nobody might buy the NAM, but all the other models are going more towards the NAM than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 .5 now gets to DC! That's the worst news I have heard all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Temps still in line?That wedge signal looks awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I agree..believe the sweet spot is going to generally be from between just north of i-20 to gainesville. This area seems to be in the location of heaviest precip while staying just cold enough for all snow. That said, the mountains will have higher ratios and probably less waisted on cooling the boundary layer initially. Regardless, things are looking good right now. fwiw and not sure if it's been mentioned but the euro ensembles were a good bit colder vs earlier runs and maybe even a touch colder than the operational run for georgia..with the 0c 850s almost down to macon It does seem like the north half of ATL metro into the mountains is going to be the sweet spot, for sure. At this point, my main concern is timing. Understandably, there's been a lot of focus (by media) on today's event. FFC did add watches for tomorrow's event at 3am today, but all media is saying is "there's another thing coming on Wednesday". But just looking at the timing shown by the various models... this is going to roll into the metro mid/late afternoon tomorrow. Bad time of day, absolutely. I hope two things: that the media flips to the new event fast enough today and really communicates that travel will suck late tomorrow afternoon, and that people make good choices about getting home early before it starts. Otherwise we're in for another exciting episode of Snowmageddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Temps still in line? It's a little warmer because it's a little NW but I am not worried about 850's, the SREF's are always to far NW and thus warm at this range so this is good. The 2m's are going to be an issue to start tomorrow so that will have to be watched but I don't think we rain, but may not accumulate at first, atleast on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 .5 now gets to DC! the luck that they have is wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's a little warmer because it's a little NW but I am not worried about 850's, the SREF's are always to far NW and thus warm at this range so this is good. The 2m's are going to be an issue to start tomorrow so that will have to be watched but I don't think we rain, but may not accumulate at first, atleast on the roads. Thanks. All the amping up can stop. QPF looks fantastic though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 As I mentioned, today's snowfall (in raleigh) adds a new wrinkle. I think it'll help cool surface temperatures ahead of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 New SREF mean is down from 7.5" from 6.2". Snow pop is at 74%. QPF mean is 1.12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 While the 9z sref is coming out, there were quite a few panels that were showing this for snow totals on the 3z. Not trying to rile the weenies up but making everyone aware of the possibilities. You can probably pivot that axis more north toward the MA based on what I've seen so far with the precip panels. I see CLT to GSO to RDU getting blasted with this one. 8"+ Example sref member.. Enjoy the warm up event this morning. The real deal is coming tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikepie Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It does seem like the north half of ATL metro into the mountains is going to be the sweet spot, for sure. At this point, my main concern is timing. Understandably, there's been a lot of focus (by media) on today's event. FFC did add watches for tomorrow's event at 3am today, but all media is saying is "there's another thing coming on Wednesday". But just looking at the timing shown by the various models... this is going to roll into the metro mid/late afternoon tomorrow. Bad time of day, absolutely. I hope two things: that the media flips to the new event fast enough today and really communicates that travel will suck late tomorrow afternoon, and that people make good choices about getting home early before it starts. Otherwise we're in for another exciting episode of Snowmageddon. WSB in house model shows zero snow for city of Atlanta. Not sure where they pull from but Minton just mostly a rainstorm, kind of a dangerous call I think right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 As I mentioned, today's snowfall (in raleigh) adds a new wrinkle. I think it'll help cool surface temperatures ahead of the storm. A d make the roads colder for the snow to stick faster. I don't think we get that warm tomorrow with the snow around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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