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February 16th-17th Obs & Nowcasting


nj2va

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Going to be a battle to get to the forecasted totals. Could sneak in on the low end, but middle to high end will be difficult if not impossible. Thinking generally 3-5 in Baltimore and 4-7 in DC. Not bad, but I'd rather have this past Saturday night's event than this. It's a shame. Radar looks so good. If the thing turned up the coast and bombed out, it would have been a monster.

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That's the northern band where the best lift/moisture is up around the -15C isotherm. What we have learned time and time again: if you're gonna have a relatively dry sub-cloud layer, it'd be best if the uvvs and saturation are within the -12 to -18C layer, which maximizes dendritic growth.

So, what you're saying is that folks are going to have more snow than me, both north and south? Lol

M/D line, not the place to be for for this one, it seems.

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The band in south central pa is being caused by some 700mb frontogenesis. It reminds me of the december 8 2013 eagles storm where a band formed on the northern edge. This band wasnt forecasted by ANY model not even tonights 00z NAM and it probablt has some of fhe heaviest snow in the system wirh it.

Usually it's over Manchester but instead they are getting shafted for once.

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