deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't see much to change my mind, at this point, from my *initial thoughts from last nights video.* Seems like a good setup for the I-40 corridor with the I-20 in play as well. We shall see what the Drunk Doc says, but My gut tells me the UKIE is too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z GEFS 72 hour precip. Pretty juicy Definitely, can you tell which wave to the lead on this run? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Confidence is increasing that there will be some type of winter weather. Still not sure what will specifically happen with three different waves on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday. Snowmeter is at a 3! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z UKMET was definitely further north than 0z...it led with the superbowl winter storm...let's see if it's a trend the other models follow everntually. I agree, it looked a little north and when you look at the 5h map you can see that this doesn't lead to a suppressed solution. No solution is off the table, the UK has been fairly good this winter. Edit: I should note, it's north of the other models, but it's definitely south of it's 0z run and a little slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I know we have been worried about suppression of the system at times. Even though its a cold look now, I'd be more worried about the high pressure to the north moving off shore too soon (i.e. 12Z GFS), allowing heights to increase out ahead of the storm, allowing it to turn the corner sooner and have to rely on insitu cold air damning to maintain snow for the Piedmont of North and South Carolina. Even with an arctic air mass in place ahead of the storm, a stronger storm without high pressure support at our latitude could move us toward a trend of more ice and rain into the piedmont. Yes, agree, rule #1 in this area is to always, always question temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The ukie has some decent ridging out ahead of the first wave. This is why it's farther north, less confluence in the NE with a stronger lead wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The jackpot for snow is still central VA, NW NC. Suppression isn't going to be the issue. Normal caveats apply with snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1bert1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What were his bottomlines? Can't really listen to his "vlog" because I'm deaf. Click on the "CC" button on the lower right corner of the video. Google will translate it fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yes, agree, rule #1 in this area is to always, always question temperatures CMC has a nice track, good temps and has a great placement of the high pressure to the north to lock in the cold, unlike the GFS. Problem is it's not very juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The jackpot for snow is still central VA, NW NC. Suppression isn't going to be the issue. Normal caveats apply with snow map. The way to properly use those snow maps is to assume some accumulation in the jackpot zones and very little outside of there, under normal circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 CMC is great for N.GA/AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NAVGEM is grazing blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS has the PV south of Hudson Bay,UKIE about over the Bay. That's making a difference in low placement in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 One take away is still much spread in the globals so far at 12z. 12z GFS less on 1st wave, more on the 2nd wave. 12z CMC most on the 1st wave (moderate event) not much on the 2nd wave 12z UKMET, seems to make one bigger system. Means we arent much closer to a consensus yet unfortunately. Yep.....typically the case in the SE. We usually don't get a consensus until the day before with a few exceptions like Jan. 88, March 93, Jan 96, Jan 11 to name a few. Tough on forecasters as well as those of us in emergency mgt tasked with making sure we're prepared. Haven't looked at analogs but sure seems similar to Feb 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NAVGEM is grazing blow. Is it north or south and which wave? Never mind, it's the NAVGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 brad's vid also noted that all 51 members of the euro ensemble show snow for charlotte, and the ensembles have a 90% liklihood of at least 1" of snow for the majority of nc and upstate sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Is it north or south and which wave? Never mind, it's the NAVGEM. I think I'd expect the NAVGEM to be S/E at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 CMC is great for N.GA/AL It's ok but I'd much prefer last night's solution since it was wetter. NAVGEM is grazing blow. it's a big hit for alabama, georgia and sc though. best of all of them in fact. too bad it's the navgem hpcs take this morning MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1152 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2015VALID FEB 13/1200 UTC THRU FEB 17/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION...INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCESUPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHTDOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION INTO THE PLAINS BY SUN-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEDIFFERENCES HERE ARE RELATIVELY SMALL BUT THE 12Z NAM IS FASTESTOF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...WHILE THE 00Z UKMET IS MOREAMPLIFIED. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC ARE SLOWER...WITH THE 12Z GFSSITTING IN THE MIDDLE REGARDING TIMING. A BLEND OF THE SIMILARGFS/ECMWF SHOULD HELP TO RESOLVE TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 00ZCMC OFFERING UP A SECOND OPTION...AS IT IS SIMILAR TO THE 00ZECMWF...JUST A BIT FLATTER. THE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE GFS/ECMWF ASWELL...MORE SO THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH/VORTEX CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTINTENSE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF NEW ENGLAND ON SUN~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: 12Z NAM...12Z GFS...00Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGETHERE HAS BEEN CONVERGING OF SOLUTIONS SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THECURRENT MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF APOWERFUL CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.CURRENTLY...THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENTON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW...BUTTHE 00Z ECMWF COULD BE A LITTLE SLOW TO DEPART THE WAVE FROM NEWENGLAND SUN EVENING. THEREFORE A 3-WAY BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWFAPPEARS BEST AS EACH MODEL HAS SMALL DIFFERENCES FROM ONEANOTHER...BUT TOGETHER REPRESENT A GOOD COMPROMISE. THE 00ZUKMET/CMC ARE A BIT FARTHER OUT TO SEA OR WEAKER...AND THEREFOREWILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE COMPROMISE.CLOSED UPPER LOW MEANDERING OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH MON~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: NON 00Z UKMET COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGETHE GUIDANCE HAS BROAD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT BY SUNNIGHT...THE UKMET SHOWS A MORE STRONGLY DIGGING UPPER TROUGHTHROUGH THE WEST COMPARED TO THE REMAINING MODEL CONSENSUS. THISENDS UP INTERACTING WITH THE CLOSED LOW OFF NEAR THE BAJAPENINSULA...KICKING IT OUT TOWARD THE EAST FASTER WITH THE UKMETMODEL. THEREFORE...GIVEN A LACK OF SUPPORT FOR THE UKMET AT THISTIME...A NON 00Z UKMET COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED.SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST ON MONDOWNSTREAM SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGETHE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TOPOF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...WITH THE ENERGYTHEN DIGGING DOWN THROUGH SOUTHWEST CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHWESTBY EARLY MON. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z UKMET...DETERMINISTICAND ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI HEIGHT TRENDS HAVE BEEN FLATTER OVER THEPAST THREE OR FOUR 12/00Z CYCLES. THE 00Z UKMET HAS ACTUALLY BEENTRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.HOWEVER...RATHER LARGE SPREAD REMAINS...WITH THE 12Z NAM...12ZGFS...AND EVEN THE 12Z CMC TO SOME EXTENT...SHOWING TOWARD THEFLATTER SIDE OF THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE DISTRIBUTION. DOWNSTREAM...AWEAK SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO GET PICKED UP BY THE ENSEMBLEMEMBERS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MON EVENING. THE 00Z UKMET...WHICHIS ON THE DEEP EDGE OF THE LATEST ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI HEIGHTS...ISOUTSIDE OF THE LATEST SPREAD WHEN IT COMES TO A SURFACE LOW IT HASDEPICTED OVER CNTRL TENNESSEE BY 00Z/17. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THECLOSEST TO THE GREATEST ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING AT THIS POINT...BUT ITIS UNKNOWN IF THE FLATTENING TREND WILL CONTINUE...REVERSE OR END....MODEL TREND GRAPHICS ATwww.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml......500 MB FORECASTS ATwww.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's ok but I'd much prefer last night's solution since it was wetter. it's a big hit for alabama, georgia and sc though. best of all of them in fact. too bad it's the navgem hpcs take this morning MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1152 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2015VALID FEB 13/1200 UTC THRU FEB 17/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION...INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES{ Snip)... Great post, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think I'd expect the NAVGEM to be S/E at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Well, that's not bad, actually, Lookout. Even for NC, that's decent all the way to the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 euro is lightning up TN with snow by 18z MON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro brings snow into nc at 84 Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Well, that's not bad, actually, Lookout. Even for NC, that's decent all the way to the mountains. Indeed. 12z euro looks awfully similar to the 0z run through 84 hours. at 84 hours, snow across all of north ga and the western carolinas. very similar amounts. it might be a hair further south but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 For those asking about supression, etc..remember the patterns in this region. Things always tick NW. I will be stunned if by kickoff we aren't seeing major ice across SC and NE GA while James and I are sweating out the 850's to keep pingermaggedon away and jack up the totals. How it always seems to unfold in the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 By Tuesday afternoon Euro gives most of NC 2 inches of snow as well as norther SC and GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think the 2nd wave on the euro will be a tick NW, not as positively tilted as 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 At 96 Hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 by 00z WED, EURO looks iffy at 2m, but that looks VERY snowy if its right. for us here in GA maybe to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 At 112 , light snow back into nc with a low popping in southern SC. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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