packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 TN really getting some good snow with that first wave on the nam. Moving into N GA at hr 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 would not shock me for the 12z and 18z runs to hold serve only for the 00z runs to start a tick north. and here is the sref via brad p thru monday (before the system really gets going for nc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 TN really getting some good snow with that first wave on the nam. Moving into N GA at hr 75.First wave def more juicy has western VA having snow move in with the heavier precip as you mentioned encompassing all of TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 TN really getting some good snow with that first wave on the nam. Moving into N GA at hr 75. At hour 72: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_072_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=1000_500_thick&fhr=072&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150213+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Energy finally getting together at hr 81 on the nam. Much slower than in 6z run. The first wave is more robust, so all of TN and northern parts of GA and SC get a good coating to a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 nam at 75 is wetter, still looks suppressed but nc gets some snow early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Nam is going to have two waves and the first looks better on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Well the NAM looks pretty durn juicy. Not the best setup with regards to QPF but still good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Another run with N GA snow... It's coming people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 thru the end of the run it gives the sc coast a good coating of wintry wx. reminds me of last year when the models had the sc coast in the money only to tick north as we got closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Nam is going to have two waves and the first looks better on this run. Yes it does. It covers all the NC mountains in 2-5" of fresh snow by midday Monday. Probably enough to cancel school across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Nam is going to have two waves and the first looks better on this run. The energy does look more "diggy" in the 4 corners region at hr 84 than the 6z gfs disaster. The energy is dropping down more vertically instead of being as flat as the GFS. I don't know what difference that would make. Have to wait for the DGEX! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Actually QPF is maximized over western TN and SC. NC only gets .10 for the most part...WNC is around .25 all snow. This of course is 84 hours on the NAM so it's probably not close to reality at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The energy does look more "diggy" in the 4 corners region at hr 84 than the 6z gfs disaster. The energy is dropping down more vertically instead of being as flat as the GFS. I don't know what difference that would make. Have to wait for the DGEX! LOL!Better phasing in subsequent runs if it ejects out right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I would cash in on the 3 inches of powder the NAM gives me Monday afternoon. I really hope this front wave produces. I don't like having to really on the back end for snow. Actually, I would prefer there not be a 2 wave deal and we just get one consolidated system come through on Monday night. Generally, I feel like models normally move towards consolidating systems in events like this. Last year's big storm was an exception as we had 2 waves in that event. So who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Overall it's a suppressed looking flow over the SE on the NAM, but a good thump into TN and N GA with that initial precip streaking east. It would struggle to turn the corner with the second piece though I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Remember the Fab Feb storm last year was a two-parter with the overrunning the day prior for more southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm starting to think I'll be too far north on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The end of that NAM run is worrisome to me. What are the chances the second wave doesn't pan out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm starting to think I'll be too far north on this one The end of that NAM run is worrisome to me. What are the chances the second wave doesn't pan out? Just hang tight guys, you might have different worries 2 days from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Overall it's a suppressed looking flow over the SE on the NAM, but a good thump into TN and N GA with that initial precip streaking east. It would struggle to turn the corner with the second piece though I think You are probably right. The trough is not sharp enough on the East coast. Where's our SE pig ridge when we need it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The end of that NAM run is worrisome to me. What are the chances the second wave doesn't pan out? The end of any NAM run should worry no one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 The end of that NAM run is worrisome to me. What are the chances the second wave doesn't pan out? Worrying over hour 84 on the NAM is the most worrisome. Take anything past 60 with a giant grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just hang tight guys, you might have different worries 2 days from now LOL, yep, come Sunday it's going to be oh no, mixing issues, it's tracking up our rear now. When we draw up fantasy snowstorms we actually start by saying we hope at day 4-5 it's tracking the SLP over Jacksonville. Well we got that, I just hope the GFS doesn't show a coastal hugger at 12z, that would be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Impressive temperature gradient over SGA at 84 hours. Its in the 60s here and a few miles N in Baxley,GA its in the 30s with wintry precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The end of any NAM run should worry no one. On cue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Impressive temperature gradient over SGA at 84 hours. Its in the 60s here and a few miles N in Baxley,GA its in the 30s with wintry precipitation. I'm pulling for you man.... This is a setup that you could score in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I would feel better if the old GFS was showing a suppressed look this far out however we have no evidence that i know of that the new GFS has a northwest trend in the last 72-96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I would feel better if the old GFS was showing a suppressed look this far out however we have no evidence that i know of that the new GFS has a northwest trend in the last 72-96 hours. I showed this on the first page of the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Of note, Sunday looks pretty damn cold. NAM has 23 at 1PM for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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