Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 "Steady snow will be limited to adjacent western New England..." Don't you live in adjacent western New England? everyone wants a foot every storm,if not it's a fail. Definitely disappointed in what has transpired to this place,bunch of Rex Ryan's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 "Steady snow" may only result in 1-2". lol You're akin (hey, Jerry) to my mini me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 everyone wants a foot every storm,if not it's a fail. Definitely disappointed in what has transpired to this place,bunch of Rex Ryan's. I just want to see some dark cloud bases. Precipitation is overrated....I'm so sick of people yearning for anomalous weather on a weather board. jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave5 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Haha this might be the first time I've ever rooted against a large impact snow storm! Hoping it works out but from the sound of it, Newport doesn't look likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think I'm going to enjoy this one either way. There is going to be some pretty explosive development in our neighborhood. When I speak about potential vorticity anomalies inducing flow, here is an example of what can happen. I previously posted the image of the PV anomaly roaring out of the Great Lakes. At 00z Sunday you can see the wind field on the tropopause (or thereabouts). Pay attention to what happens in the blue circle as the PV anomaly induces stronger cyclonic flow aloft, and the diabatic production of a low level PV anomaly feeds back onto the upper level flow too. You have a 130+ knot jet explode to the east of the developing cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think I'm going to enjoy this one either way. There is going to be some pretty explosive development in our neighborhood. When I speak about potential vorticity anomalies inducing flow, here is an example of what can happen. I previously posted the image of the PV anomaly roaring out of the Great Lakes. At 00z Sunday you can see the wind field on the tropopause (or thereabouts). tropwind00z.jpeg Pay attention to what happens in the blue circle as the PV anomaly induces stronger cyclonic flow aloft, and the diabatic production of a low level PV anomaly feeds back onto the upper level flow too. You have a 130+ knot jet explode to the east of the developing cyclone. tropwind06z.jpeg some degreed guys are not getting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Keep in mind that's the GFS, so if you want to hug the Euro just shift that southwest a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Watched Harv and his summary (to those who didn't hear him ) says something along the lines of " we still have one way out of this " if it redevelops over , or just north of us we wont' get much snow" , but " the likelihood to me is it redevelops just south of us, radically intensifies and draws on moisture from Atlantic and draws from tremendous amount of energy in atmosphere" and crush us. Gives BOS better than 50/50 of getting "this". Seems like further NE you go, more wiggle room but i'm just guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 everyone wants a foot every storm,if not it's a fail. Definitely disappointed in what has transpired to this place,bunch of Rex Ryan's. We discuss model output in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 We discuss model output in here. I go too far in the other direction admittedly...jp fetish. With this much snow on the ground, though....just give me one more good one and i'm shattering records either way, so....don't need jp at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think I'm going to enjoy this one either way. There is going to be some pretty explosive development in our neighborhood. When I speak about potential vorticity anomalies inducing flow, here is an example of what can happen. I previously posted the image of the PV anomaly roaring out of the Great Lakes. At 00z Sunday you can see the wind field on the tropopause (or thereabouts). tropwind00z.jpeg Pay attention to what happens in the blue circle as the PV anomaly induces stronger cyclonic flow aloft, and the diabatic production of a low level PV anomaly feeds back onto the upper level flow too. You have a 130+ knot jet explode to the east of the developing cyclone. tropwind06z.jpeg Thanks for all the education tonight! I notice a wind from the NNE in NH in that scenario. Generally I do better with a more NE wind. Will those wind directions bet the same at all levels of the atmosphere or is the NNE wind feeding in cold while winds at another layer of the atmosphere are feeding in moisture? I thought GYX was quite conservative, although perhaps appropriate in the zones. Basically 50% chance of snow at CON Sat night but not on Sunday. I think the Euro and GFS were both above .5qpf to CON weren't they? At least Euro was. Maybe GFS was .25-.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We discuss model output in here.and when qpf only gives .4 with ratios 6 inches it's meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think I'm going to enjoy this one either way. There is going to be some pretty explosive development in our neighborhood. When I speak about potential vorticity anomalies inducing flow, here is an example of what can happen. I previously posted the image of the PV anomaly roaring out of the Great Lakes. At 00z Sunday you can see the wind field on the tropopause (or thereabouts). tropwind00z.jpeg Pay attention to what happens in the blue circle as the PV anomaly induces stronger cyclonic flow aloft, and the diabatic production of a low level PV anomaly feeds back onto the upper level flow too. You have a 130+ knot jet explode to the east of the developing cyclone. tropwind06z.jpeg Yeah the low static stability is gonna help this explode in the GOM. All those processes as you said really aiding the low. Just a matter of where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 some degreed guys are not getting itNo doubt this is looking impressive meteorologically. I'm as much of a geek as the next guy with dynamic systems. But if you're only into the sensible weather IYBY then I can understand why some would be meh on this...especially in WNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I go too far in the other direction admittedly...jp fetish. With this much snow on the ground, though....just give me one more good one and i'm shattering records either way, so....don't need jp at this point pretty sure it's a done deal. That southern stream juicer is gonna cream all over you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It has enormous potential that is clear...as modeled. The question is how reliable is the initial conditions? We won't know for another 12-18 hours. The system is coming out of a pretty data poor region...we have very few systems follow this trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No doubt this is looking impressive meteorologically. I'm as much of a geek as the next guy with dynamic systems. But if you're only into the sensible weather IYBY then I can understand why some would be meh on this...especially in WNE.wasn't talking about this place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 some degreed guys are not getting it If that depiction is correct im super stoked about what's heading toward Halifax! Once in a lifetime miss! Seriously though it certainly has potential to be big. Lots going for it but in terms of sensible Wx here where we all live there's a lot that can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Is it true that the NAM is more diggy? I guess this is a true Manitoba Mauler eh? The Blizzard was more a Saskatchewan Screamer I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 pretty sure it's a done deal. That southern stream juicer is gonna cream all over you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If that depiction is correct im super stoked about what's heading toward Halifax! Once in a lifetime miss! Seriously though it certainly has potential to be big. Lots going for it but in terms of sensible Wx here where we all live there's a lot that can go wrong. 0z NAM perfectly illustrates what the current ULL trajectory does...we watch the storm erupt but a little too far ENE so maybe Maine and Halifax get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 There has been more epic blizzards at H5 then we can count Exactly...which is exactly why the fella who has plans to take his girl down to Newport Saturday shouldn't cancel. There's 8-10 inches of snow on the ground down here. 60 miles south epicosity meets banality. You guys have been stealing my snow for years..now you wanna steal my tourism dollars?! Let the guy have some fun...sure, it could be a tough ride home on Sunday...but Newport never ever jackpots and the odds of Newport, Rhode Island...the picturesque snow-hole of New England getting a "blizzard" this weekend are slim to none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinWX Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I know it's early...but the NAM looks fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 NAM has the storm, all that needs to be said about the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Sorry, I had to look at the nam...it's looking better. Mid levels pass underneath CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I know it's early...but the NAM looks fantasticnot according to Clinch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Didn't the Euro even show this area being right at the S. extent of the good snows?? It just seems to me that even a slight bump N from its depiction would mean a lighter event here. I hope I awake to posts about this digging further S but from all the posts I just read that seems highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Its decent but doesn't really explode until its pretty far east, definitely dug more and the wave looked more consolidated so I woud say at least a slight improvement on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Why Ryan is right: No Atlantic blocking/progressive long wave pattern Mediocre western ridge Euro has been over-amped and leftward for a year now. Much better chances of correcting eastward rather than westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 NAM does look awesome...but long range NAM...so we wait for the big boys to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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