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Mid FEB through March Threats/Snow Storms


mitchnick

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Not liking 12z runs overall, really don't see how we get anything but an overrunning to rain event, -PNA  patterns just suck.

 

The PNA was predominantly negative prior to the Feb 5/6, 2010 storm and during PDII, but good call.

 

2003 02 10 -86.70

2003 02 11 -34.02

2003 02 12 6.36

2003 02 13 32.40

2003 02 14 2.92

2003 02 15 -33.39

2003 02 16 -46.39

2003 02 17 -27.59

2003 02 18 -70.75

2003 02 19 -91.73

2003 02 20 -62.63

 

2010 02 01 -13.59

2010 02 02 -72.22

2010 02 03 -91.68

2010 02 04 -121.77

2010 02 05 -73.37

2010 02 06 117.56

2010 02 07 197.42

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The PNA was predominantly negative prior to the Feb 5/6, 2010 storm and during PDII, but good call.

 

2003 02 10 -86.70

2003 02 11 -34.02

2003 02 12 6.36

2003 02 13 32.40

2003 02 14 2.92

2003 02 15 -33.39

2003 02 16 -46.39

2003 02 17 -27.59

2003 02 18 -70.75

2003 02 19 -91.73

2003 02 20 -62.63

 

2010 02 01 -13.59

2010 02 02 -72.22

2010 02 03 -91.68

2010 02 04 -121.77

2010 02 05 -73.37

2010 02 06 117.56

2010 02 07 197.42

 

-PNA combined with ++NAO/AO = crap pattern. Those other years had great blocking.

 

The EPO ridge may help us but it sure as hell isn't reliable on its own when everything else looks awful. But I'm content with this winter after today's storm.

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-PNA combined with ++NAO/AO = crap pattern. Those other years had great blocking.

 

The EPO ridge may help us but it sure as hell isn't reliable on its own when everything else looks awful. But I'm content with this winter after today's storm.

Today was a beast. It put me at average for the season and everything else from here on out is gravy.

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-PNA combined with ++NAO/AO = crap pattern. Those other years had great blocking.

 

The EPO ridge may help us but it sure as hell isn't reliable on its own when everything else looks awful. But I'm content with this winter after today's storm.

 

Yeah but you can't just throw out blanket statements without producing data to back it up. He didn't mention anything about the NAO/AO, wise guy.

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Don't sleep on the d5+/- period. It's either a slider or a hit. Euro ensembles have enough scrapes and hits to keep an eye out. Beyond that is too far to worry about.

 

Yeah, keeping an eye on late next week.  GFS has been advertising some kind of snow to ice scenario next weekend, but those details are kind of silly to dig into very much at this point.

 

But even before that, both the GFS and NAM hint at some light stuff on Monday (especially the NAM from what I saw).  It's not a lot, but with cold temperatures, might be an interesting dusting or topper.

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Yeah, keeping an eye on late next week. GFS has been advertising some kind of snow to ice scenario next weekend, but those details are kind of silly to dig into very much at this point.

But even before that, both the GFS and NAM hint at some light stuff on Monday (especially the NAM from what I saw). It's not a lot, but with cold temperatures, might be an interesting dusting or topper.

It will probably trend to a 1-2" kinda deal. #snowtown

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Yeah but you can't just throw out blanket statements without producing data to back it up. He didn't mention anything about the NAO/AO, wise guy.

It's already well understood by everyone here that we've had just about zero blocking this winter... so of course a +PNA will be much more crucial for winter weather... learn a bit of context before barging in.

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