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Snowathon Obs/ Nowcast 02/07-02/09


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ALB is running about 50% of mean forecasted QPF based off of Fri/Sat progs.  The hill towns west and also east to the MA border are similarly limping along in the .6-.75 LE range for the 3 day total.  We've gained a couple inches of snowpack.  So far we've briefly maxed out at -SN and .75 vis.  The sun is now shining through the clouds.  The overrunning did not deliver out this way.  The western QPF maximum was way overdone on all guidance.

 

I have never done WE measurements.  The lower end of the 14-18 range might be realized here, though I can see the radar near you getting a little raggedy.  That'll translate here soon enough.

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These coastal fronts are fascinating to me. I always seem to be in the perfect area to spot the CF on the TWDR radar base radial velocities. Seems to have stalled right over Stoughton Ctr (intersection of rte 138 and 27) as that boundary hasn't moved in 45 minutes. I live 0.4 miles ENE of there with a temp of 28.2 deg now.  It was 21 before it moved by.

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I have never done WE measurements.  The lower end of the 14-18 range might be realized here, though I can see the radar near you getting a little raggedy.  That'll translate here soon enough.

Glad you're doing better over there.  We had as much just from last week's frontal upslope event.  Not sure many places near here will hit double digits.  Maybe up near Saratoga and in parts of SVT.

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Yeah but this isn't what many were thinking would be going on (death band boston N&W).  Everything is south.  the warmth just didn't have the push and it shifted everything down a bit.

 

NAM was out to lunch right through the 12z run and it took the HRRR until the 14z run to buy a clue on the placement of the best banding.  RGEM wasn't great either, but it seems fine at 12z and hits EMA pretty hard all day into the evening.

 

Will wait on crowning any model until it's over, and we have a ways to go, but my sense is that overall models were not so bad, if only underestimating cold tuck and snowfall in south shore last night. HRRR seems to have been a few hours too early moving CF west but it eventually nailed its placement.

 

My point was more that the bust calls last night, based on crappy returns and CF located farther east, were premature. We (myself included) were obsessing over CF placement, when it was clear all the stuff in NY and the better synoptic forcing would not arrive before this morning.

 

Most of eastern MA does really well today and I think the relatively bullish NWS map will end up on target, except it clearly underestimated south shore and areas southeast.

 

Marty Walsh getting good tv time.

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Will wait on crowning any model until it's over, and we have a ways to go, but my sense is that overall models were not so bad, if only underestimating cold tuck and snowfall in south shore last night. HRRR seems to have been a few hours too early moving CF west but it eventually nailed its placement.

 

My point was more that the bust calls last night, based on crappy returns and CF located farther east, were premature. We (myself included) were obsessing over CF placement, when it was clear all the stuff in NY and the better synoptic forcing would not arrive before this morning.

 

Most of eastern MA does really well today and I think the relatively bullish NWS map will end up on target, except it clearly underestimated south shore and areas southeast.

 

Marty Walsh getting good tv time.

 

System will have a good tail whip this afternoon working back south too.

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Snow growth is getting better but it has been atrocious. Haven't found one place in the state greater than 10:1. 

 

Need to come north (or not.)  Thru 7 AM only 0.21" LE at my place, but it made 4.3" fluff for 20:1.  Dendrites were especially good last evening, resulting in super-sparkle from our outdoor lights.  Of course, 1.5" LE of 10:1 would've been preferable.

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Steady moderate to heavy snow here for some time now. We are over 12" (maybe closer to 14") now. I'll know for sure when I go out to shovel the steps in a few minutes. They are in one of the few non wind affected areas on my hill. I'm near the Hanover Insurance company--190/290 area of Worcester. -11C/12F

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Steady moderate to heavy snow here for some time now. We are over 12" (maybe closer to 14") now. I'll know for sure when I go out to shovel the steps in a few minutes. They are in one of the few non wind affected areas on my hill. I'm near the Hanover Insurance company--190/290 area of Worcester. -11C/12F

 

Pretty decent spot for elevation...700 foot range there.

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Steady moderate to heavy snow here for some time now. We are over 12" (maybe closer to 14") now. I'll know for sure when I go out to shovel the steps in a few minutes. They are in one of the few non wind affected areas on my hill. I'm near the Hanover Insurance company--190/290 area of Worcester. -11C/12F

 

Agreed, been getting moderate snow with occasional heavy bursts for over an hour now. I live about 2 miles north of you around the corner of Forest and Salisbury, and I work at Hanover actually.

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My house is located at the top of a hill near Grafton Street. That might be the reason for higher totals there, or drifting maybe.

 

Yeah the stuff isn't easy to measure. My measurement is from Winter Hill at 900+ feet which is the highest point in ORH outside of airport hill, so elevation isn't the issue.

 

Drifting will likely be the biggest cause of differences in totals. Either way though, I agree with you that 14" will probably be surpassed. Much of the region is under pretty good snow rates now unlike for most of the storm.

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